Back to 17 wins to be “completely safe” heading to BTT

tmvander

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The conference or the U would NEVER admit this, but I wonder if both are trying to make this happen to simply make the optics of a 0 win road schedule less of an issue for the tournament committee. The conference benefits from more teams in the tourney, they are absolutely aware we have 0 road wins and that's an issue. If we had say beaten Mich on the road and lost at home I really do think the odds we play in Lincoln are next to 0%, since we are totally inept on the road, I think they push it more to get a game scheduled.
I thought that too, but at this point they would probably have to win 4 of 5 (maybe 3 of 5 if they beat Illinois). I think that's a tall task even considering who we're playing the remainder of the way.
 

Go Gophs

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I thought that too, but at this point they would probably have to win 4 of 5 (maybe 3 of 5 if they beat Illinois). I think that's a tall task even considering who we're playing the remainder of the way.
I don't think so. Beat PSU on the road, beat NW and they are gonna be close. Win one of the other games and we are a lock.

Also, beat Illinois tomorrow and win at PSU and we are also a lock.

Both of these scenarios rely on us NOT playing the Nebraska game.

If they play Nebraksa you would need that win, win @ PSU and one other.


EITHER WAY. They have to win @ PSU. If they don't, it's going to be hard to see them making it IMO.
I don't see the selection committee letting a bubble team in that didn't win a single road game. Maybe I am wrong, but this would set a bad precedence.
 

tjgopher

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Doogie said on Skor North that the U expects to play Nebraska next Thursday, but the B1G is dragging their feet on confirming it and are "rudderless" in this re-scheduling.
Big Ten has been clueless in this entire athletic year.

Sounds like Big Ten is likely going to re-shuffle a few things next week. As I said last week, I think MN plays at Nebraska next week. Sounds like Michigan and Iowa are going to re-schedule their game next week, as well.

Big Ten is seemingly making Nebraska make up all of its games, while allowing Michigan to somewhat pick and choose which games it wants to make up and to limit their total number of games.
 

tmvander

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I don't think so. Beat PSU on the road, beat NW and they are gonna be close. Win one of the other games and we are a lock.

Also, beat Illinois tomorrow and win at PSU and we are also a lock.

Both of these scenarios rely on us NOT playing the Nebraska game.

If they play Nebraksa you would need that win, win @ PSU and one other.


EITHER WAY. They have to win @ PSU. If they don't, it's going to be hard to see them making it IMO.
I don't see the selection committee letting a bubble team in that didn't win a single road game. Maybe I am wrong, but this would set a bad precedence.
I mean two wins likely puts us square on the bubble of not knowing one way or another if we're in or not (2 without Nebby makeup). If one of those is Illinois and one is Penn St I think you're right. However, if one is Illinois and one is NW I don't know.

Dammit I want them in the tourney!!!
 

tjgopher

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I don't see the selection committee letting a bubble team in that didn't win a single road game. Maybe I am wrong, but this would set a bad precedence.
It would be sadder to have the committee leave out a bubble team with wins over NET RANKED teams #3, #5, #6, #27, #32 when most other bubble teams don't have one win that good.

At the end of the day, we just need to compile enough overall wins to allow us to get in. Depending on what who we beat, 15 wins could be enough. 16 wins almost assuredly gets it done.

Adding a win over NET RANKED #4 tomorrow would be a heckuva start. Then I think you only need one other win of any type.
 

Go Gophs

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It would be sadder to have the committee leave out a bubble team with wins over NET RANKED teams #3, #5, #6, #27, #32 when most other bubble teams don't have one win that good.

At the end of the day, we just need to compile enough overall wins to allow us to get in. Depending on what who we beat, 15 wins could be enough. 16 wins almost assuredly gets it done.

Adding a win over NET RANKED #4 tomorrow would be a heckuva start. Then I think you only need one other win of any type.
I hope you're right!!

Beating Illinois would help for sure, but I think we have enough good wins. It's the road record that is going to hurt them I think.

We also don't play well often. That is what our NET ranking says and that is another thing they will look at. Yes, they have nice wins, but they have been BLOWN OUT alot too.

If they could keep from getting KILLED by every team they play on the road, it would have helped. As it sits though, they are the 100% worst road team in the entire country.

Basically, we have left ourselves very vulnerable by winning zero road games. Had a few of those wins happened on the road, I'd feel alot better right now.
 

tjgopher

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It would help for sure, but I think we have enough good wins. It's the road record that is going to hurt them I think.
I believe the no road wins is a cute national talking point for people like Jerry Palm and Joe Lunardi to throw out there because they don't have anything else to say. But I think it is something the committee will not consider strongly when looking at a resume of a team when road games are not really road games anyway. I could be wrong, but I think our biggest thing now is to just accumulate wins to get to a point that makes us a tourney team.

The #1 thing the committee looks for is quality of wins. That has been made clear in recent years. We have that as much as any team in the country, let alone a bubble team. So, now we just need total wins to be a tourney team. As SS has said, 16 is the magic number.
 

tmvander

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I believe the no road wins is a cute national talking point for people like Jerry Palm and Joe Lunardi to throw out there because they don't have anything else to say. But I think it is something the committee will not consider strongly when looking at a resume of a team when road games are not really road games anyway. I could be wrong, but I think our biggest thing now is to just accumulate wins to get to a point that makes us a tourney team.

The #1 thing the committee looks for is quality of wins. That has been made clear in recent years. We have that as much as any team in the country, let alone a bubble team. So, now we just need total wins to be a tourney team. As SS has said, 16 is the magic number.
I mean just overall wins and quality of them is really all they should care about. If a team wins 20 games with 5 road wins or 20 games with 0 road wins they still have 20 wins.

It also means that one team lost 5 additional home games which are supposed to be "easier" wins.

I'm not making excuses for the gophers as I would think this exact same thing if we were talking about Cal, Florida, Wake Forest, etc.
 

howeda7

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I don't think so. Beat PSU on the road, beat NW and they are gonna be close. Win one of the other games and we are a lock.

Also, beat Illinois tomorrow and win at PSU and we are also a lock.

Both of these scenarios rely on us NOT playing the Nebraska game.

If they play Nebraksa you would need that win, win @ PSU and one other.


EITHER WAY. They have to win @ PSU. If they don't, it's going to be hard to see them making it IMO.
I don't see the selection committee letting a bubble team in that didn't win a single road game. Maybe I am wrong, but this would set a bad precedence.
They need 9 wins without Nebraska and 10 with Nebraska to be safe. But I think even a win at Nebraska takes the road discussion off the table, so I hope they play it.
 

howeda7

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I believe the no road wins is a cute national talking point for people like Jerry Palm and Joe Lunardi to throw out there because they don't have anything else to say. But I think it is something the committee will not consider strongly when looking at a resume of a team when road games are not really road games anyway. I could be wrong, but I think our biggest thing now is to just accumulate wins to get to a point that makes us a tourney team.

The #1 thing the committee looks for is quality of wins. That has been made clear in recent years. We have that as much as any team in the country, let alone a bubble team. So, now we just need total wins to be a tourney team. As SS has said, 16 is the magic number.
It's not a talking point. They do look at road/neutral record. If we have ZERO road or neutral wins, it will count against us. How much is TBD. If we can only get blown out by double digits every time we leave the Barn, how does that prove we'll do well in the tournament?
 

Seany

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It would be sadder to have the committee leave out a bubble team with wins over NET RANKED teams #3, #5, #6, #27, #32 when most other bubble teams don't have one win that good.
Totally agree. It would be remarkable for a team with the quality of victories that we have end up not making the tournament, but that is the realistic possibility we are facing. I wonder if in the history of college basketball, there has ever been a team with double digit home victories over what are likely to be two #1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament, NOT make the tournament? I would think this team must be one of the all-time anomalies in basketball history. We just might be on the verge of doing something unprecedented in collegiate basketball history, and God, how unbelievable, how insane, and how awful would that be? In the history in Golden Gophers basketball, that would have to qualify as the Golden Gopher-iest thing ever.

Someone on the board mentioned awhile ago how weird this team is, and again, I couldn't agree more. We're just bizarre, capable of beating literally just about anyone at home, but so, so terribly vulnerable and fragile on the road (and in empty arenas, no less!). And it's not that we just lose, it's that so often we get blown right out of the gym and are completely uncompetitive on the road. In that sense, we're like half a team, and if I were on the selection committee and we finished winless on the road, I'd have a real hard time myself justifying our inclusion in the tournament field no matter our impressive wins at home. All these games...

@ Illinois
L 92-65

@ Wisconsin
L 71-59

@ Michigan
L 82-57

@ Iowa
L 86-71

@ Purdue
L 81-62

@ Maryland
L 72-59

@ Indiana
L 82-72

....it just might prove impossible to overcome that. What a shame.
 

howeda7

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Lunardi now has us in the play in games. Assume we'll be out completely if we lose tomorrow.
 

Bad Gopher

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Gophers get the Nebraska game back...looks like it's back to 17 wins...

This hasn't even been updated on the web site yet. 🙄

At Nebraska and home against Rutgers are going to determine their NCAA selection. And really, if you can't beat the Huskers...
 

tjgopher

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Totally agree. It would be remarkable for a team with the quality of victories that we have end up not making the tournament, but that is the realistic possibility we are facing. I wonder if in the history of college basketball, there has ever been a team with double digit home victories over what are likely to be two #1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament, NOT make the tournament? I would think this team must be one of the all-time anomalies in basketball history. We just might be on the verge of doing something unprecedented in collegiate basketball history, and God, how unbelievable, how insane, and how awful would that be? In the history in Golden Gophers basketball, that would have to qualify as the Golden Gopher-iest thing ever.

Someone on the board mentioned awhile ago how weird this team is, and again, I couldn't agree more. We're just bizarre, capable of beating literally just about anyone at home, but so, so terribly vulnerable and fragile on the road (and in empty arenas, no less!). And it's not that we just lose, it's that so often we get blown right out of the gym and are completely uncompetitive on the road. In that sense, we're like half a team, and if I were on the selection committee and we finished winless on the road, I'd have a real hard time myself justifying our inclusion in the tournament field no matter our impressive wins at home. All these games...

@ Illinois
L 92-65

@ Wisconsin
L 71-59

@ Michigan
L 82-57

@ Iowa
L 86-71

@ Purdue
L 81-62

@ Maryland
L 72-59

@ Indiana
L 82-72

....it just might prove impossible to overcome that. What a shame.

Right, the other anomaly is the schedule itself. Our road schedule has been a beast. Every team we've lost to on the road is likely an NCAA Tourney team. We haven't been favored in any road game. Our "worst" loss is at Indiana, NET RANKED #42. That's the worst loss based on NET RANKING. The rest of our road losses have come to NET RANKED #3, #4, #5, #22, #27, #29, and #35.

The Gophers haven't play any of the bottom four teams in the Big Ten on the road. We don't get to play at Northwestern or at Michigan State. We haven't yet played at Penn State or Nebraska. We are the only Big Ten team that hasn't yet had a shot at any of those road wins (of course there's no guarantee we would have won them, likely will be an underdog at PSU).

Another weird thing, we play six of the current top seven twice. We play three of the bottom four once. Michigan (who is a great team), plays three of the bottom four twice, and the best team they play twice is Wisconsin. They have NOT even played Ohio State, Illinois or Iowa AT ALL yet this season. They will only play them once. They will only play the current top five teams of the Big Ten once. Of course, they don't get to play themselves so they can't play the current top team.
 
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GameDay

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This hasn't even been updated on the web site yet. 🙄

At Nebraska and home against Rutgers are going to determine their NCAA selection. And really, if you can't beat the Huskers...
Hate to be that guy, but a Nebraska dub is no guarantee. First of all, its a road game, and secondly, they've been playing much better as of late. I'd still lean Gophers, but it's not the shoe-in people think it is.
 

WilliamsArenaGuy

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Hate to be that guy, but a Nebraska dub is no guarantee. First of all, its a road game, and secondly, they've been playing much better as of late. I'd still lean Gophers, but it's not the shoe-in people think it is.
I don't think anyone would think it is a shoe-in at this point. If they do, they aren't worth paying attention to.
 

cjbfbp

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It would be sadder to have the committee leave out a bubble team with wins over NET RANKED teams #3, #5, #6, #27, #32 when most other bubble teams don't have one win that good.
I don't agree with that. I think the idea that the NCAA tournament should pick the best 68 teams for the tournament is misguided and doesn't jibe with reality. If that were the case, they wouldn't have automatic qualifiers from lowly conferences where the best teams are not even close to cracking the top 100.

I think selection to the tourney should be a reward for having a good or very good season against your competition. The substantial majority of teams selected have very little chance of making the final four anyway so why worry about a 15-11 team who was ranked #57 by some index but not selected? I'd rather see that spot taken by some mid-major team with a #70 ranking but a 21-7 record against its competition.

I would also be disgusted if Pitino remained here another year just because we barely slid in with another mediocre record but some very good wins.
 

SixBySix

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I think people are forgetting that we will also have at least one BTT neutral site game. @Nebraska, NW, and one BTT win would be enough given the strong positives in the rest of the resume, I would think.
 

upnorthkid

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I don't agree with that. I think the idea that the NCAA tournament should pick the best 68 teams for the tournament is misguided and doesn't jibe with reality. If that were the case, they wouldn't have automatic qualifiers from lowly conferences where the best teams are not even close to cracking the top 100.

I think selection to the tourney should be a reward for having a good or very good season against your competition. The substantial majority of teams selected have very little chance of making the final four anyway so why worry about a 15-11 team who was ranked #57 by some index but not selected? I'd rather see that spot taken by some mid-major team with a #70 ranking but a 21-7 record against its competition.

I would also be disgusted if Pitino remained here another year just because we barely slid in with another mediocre record but some very good wins.
it kind is like they're trying to reward those who had that "good or very good season against your competition" plus reward who they think are the "best x teams remaining" to make up the final 68. I think they do a fine job and in reality, yeah it probably doesn't matter who makes it is as a last four, except for when it does a la VCU, Syracuse or Tennessee
 
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upnorthkid

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Right, the other anomaly is the schedule itself. Our road schedule has been a beast. Every team we've lost to on the road is likely an NCAA Tourney team. We haven't been favored in any road game. Our "worst" loss is at Indiana, NET RANKED #42. That's the worst loss based on NET RANKING. The rest of our road losses have come to NET RANKED #3, #4, #5, #22, #27, #29, and #35.

The Gophers haven't play any of the bottom four teams in the Big Ten on the road. We don't get to play at Northwestern or at Michigan State. We haven't yet played at Penn State or Nebraska. We are the only Big Ten team that hasn't yet had a shot at any of those road wins (of course there's no guarantee we would have won them, likely will be an underdog at PSU).

Another weird thing, we play six of the current top seven twice. We play three of the bottom four once. Michigan (who is a great team), plays three of the bottom four twice, and the best team they play twice is Wisconsin. They have NOT even played Ohio State, Illinois or Iowa AT ALL yet this season. They will only play them once. They will only play the current top five teams of the Big Ten once. Of course, they don't get to play themselves so they can't play the current top team.
given how hard it is to win in the B10, this is important. Doesn't make it excusable, but is important as reference.

The unbalanced B10 schedule creates some interesting things that way. interesting to note Michigan's schedule
 

cjbfbp

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so why don't we just shrink the tournament then? AQs only
No, not automatic qualifiers only but I don't see any reason why a team with a sub-.500 record in its conference should get in. I'm counting the conference tournament in the totals.
 

upnorthkid

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No, not automatic qualifiers only but I don't see any reason why a team with a sub-.500 record in its conference should get in. I'm counting the conference tournament in the totals.
see edit. sorry was retyping/clarifying
 

Some guy

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Lunardi now has us in the play in games. Assume we'll be out completely if we lose tomorrow.
Depends on what other bubble teams do.
It isn’t like win and move up move and move down. There are 10-15 teams all somewhat close
 

SelectionSunday

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Updated through Illinois game, and with Nebraska game back our “completely safe” number returns to 17.
 
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