Back to 17 wins to be “completely safe” heading to BTT

SelectionSunday

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(updated through Nebraska debacle)

Here is how I break it down for the Gophers assuming they get all 27 games in. This is a rough sketch of what I think they need to do to feel completely safe about their NCAA Tournament chances heading into the Big Ten Tournament. The goal ALWAYS IS TO BE A LOCK before the BTT.

THE BIG BOYS -- go 2-4 (finished 2-4)
@ Illinois (L)
Iowa (W)
Michigan State (W)
@ Wisconsin (L)
@ Iowa (L)
Illinois (L)

FLIP-A-COIN -- go 7-5 (currently 4-6)
Saint Louis (W)
Ohio State (W)
@ Michigan (L)
Michigan (W)
Maryland (L)
@ Purdue (L)
@ Rutgers (L)
Purdue (W)
@ Maryland (L)
@ Indiana (L)
@ Penn State
Rutgers

MUST WINS -- go 8-1 (finish 7-2)
Green Bay (W)
Loyola Marymount (W)
Loyola Marymount (W)
North Dakota (W)
Boston College (W)
Kansas City (W)
Nebraska (W)
Northwestern (L)
@ Nebraska (L)
 
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golf

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Big boys - going to be tough to win 2
Flip coin - May need to outperform this category a bit if cant get 2 wins against the big boys. Would be really nice to get the St. Louis win and then hopefully some of these middling teams underperform as the season goes along to help us out a bit.
Must wins - Not easy, but doable. Cant afford to slip up here.
 
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Gopher_In_NYC

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It's Now or Never For Me this Year -

We Need to Overperform at Some Point - like Football did last year, IMO.

Let's Nut Up and Shut Up!!
 

nitramnaed

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Ope3 (see Initial In-Season Field of 68 projection thread) is right, there are so many variables that play into this. But because we don't know what's going to happen between now and March, I can only project based on what we know right now. Obviously, NCAA tourney format changes and/or regular-season game cancelations are likely to impact this. This already is a season unlike any other.

Nevertheless, here's how I'd break it down for the Gophers assuming they get all their games in (a big assumption, I know). They're currently 4-0 and are scheduled to play 27 games. This is a rough sketch of what I think they need to do to feel completely safe about their NCAA Tournament chances heading into the Big Ten Tournament. The goal ALWAYS IS TO BE A LOCK before then.

If the Gophers get all 27 games in, I think 17-10 is the number. 16-11 is a little dicey unless the Gophers bag 3 wins vs. The Big Boys

Note, if games get outright canceled, I'll tweak this (and the win number) as we go along. We'll likely need to be flexible with the number.

PLAYIN' THE BIG BOYS -- win 2 of 6
@ Illinois
Iowa
Michigan State
@ Wisconsin
@ Iowa
Illinois

FLIP-A-COIN -- win 7 of 12
Saint Louis
Ohio State
@ Michigan
Michigan
Maryland
@ Purdue
@ Rutgers
Purdue
@ Maryland
@ Indiana
@ Penn State
Rutgers

MUST WINS (includes the 4 they already have) -- go no worse than 8-1 (currently 4-0)
Green Bay (W)
Loyola Marymount (W)
Loyola Marymount (W)
North Dakota (W)
Boston College
Kansas City
@ Nebraska
Nebraska
Northwestern
Any normal year I agree. But this year? Meh.
 

Bruno22

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Big boys - going to be tough to win 2
Flip coin - May need to outperform this category a bit if cant get 2 wins against the big boys. Would be really nice to get the St. Louis win and then hopefully some of these middling teams underperform as the season goes along to help us out a bit.
Must wins - Not easy, but doable. Cant afford to slip up here.
Agree w the big boys.
Unfortunately, so many of the flip a coin are on the road. Records on the road for gopher basketball are hideous under RP.
 

UpAndUnder43

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Agree w the big boys.
Unfortunately, so many of the flip a coin are on the road. Records on the road for gopher basketball are hideous under RP.
Do you think no fans will impact home court advantages? Sincere Q.
 

golf

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Do you think no fans will impact home court advantages? Sincere Q.
I think this season will be a very interesting experiment measuring the affect of fans on game outcomes.

Would anticipate home court advantage to be minimized this season, will be interesting to see how much it is minimized.
 

Holy Man

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Do you think no fans will impact home court advantages? Sincere Q.
Interruption: Home floor will not be the advantage it normally is. Mostly because home team won't get the juice from the home fans. Very interesting situation. Will committee devalue road wins because of reduced home floor advantage?
 
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I think crowds are a big part of home court advantage, however, there is still the advantage of the feel of your home court, not traveling, the depth of the background behind the rims, all of it. I think that plays a part in home court advantage. It will be interesting to see just how much.
 

Otis

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I'd say they need to go 9-0 in the must haves.

Need to go 8-4 in the toss-ups. And several of these don't look like toss-ups.

1 win in the Big Boys is expecting a lot, Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin are the best shots.

If the OSU game was away you could just make it a loss. Can't remember the last time we won in Columbus.
 

Bruno22

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I think crowds are a big part of home court advantage, however, there is still the advantage of the feel of your home court, not traveling, the depth of the background behind the rims, all of it. I think that plays a part in home court advantage. It will be interesting to see just how much.
The depth of the background
Do you think no fans will impact home court advantages? Sincere Q.
Agree w all that has already been posted.

Will be an interesting experiment.

Hard to isolate the advantage of home court given the overwhelming amount of variables (fans, refs bias due to arena general, refs bias because of the crowd, travel, unfamiliar shooting background, negating the fact that just a better team based on conference/overall record compared to MN is playing at home, etc).

I do not think one can say home court will mean nil. Also naive just to say lack of fans will completely negate home court advantage proven in CBB and NBA due to above list.
 

alaska

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Here is the most likely path....19 wins.....I think its doable....

Green Bay (W)
Loyola Marymount (W)
Loyola Marymount (W)
North Dakota (W)
Boston College
Kansas City
Nebraska
Northwestern
Saint Louis
Ohio State
Maryland
@ Rutgers
Purdue
@ Maryland
@ Indiana
@ Penn State
Rutgers
@ Wisconsin
Illinois
 

GopherBlood666

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I'd say they need to go 9-0 in the must haves.

Need to go 8-4 in the toss-ups. And several of these don't look like toss-ups.

1 win in the Big Boys is expecting a lot, Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin are the best shots.

If the OSU game was away you could just make it a loss. Can't remember the last time we won in Columbus.
Won in columbus last year lol
 

60's Guy

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Anybody got stats for shooting on the season: Home vs Road ?
I think that, in addition to fans, is a big piece.
Matchups could fubar this though too, say, if against an opponent you can run constantly for layups or score inside at will.
SO, home and road comparisons from 3 is THE STAT to compare.
Maybe stats don’t bear all this out any more because teams don’t practice on their home court everyday, any more. In high school, I’d bet most all teams shoot better at home.
 

UpAndUnder43

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Anybody got stats for shooting on the season: Home vs Road ?
I think that, in addition to fans, is a big piece.
Matchups could fubar this though too, say, if against an opponent you can run constantly for layups or score inside at will.
SO, home and road comparisons from 3 is THE STAT to compare.
Maybe stats don’t bear all this out any more because teams don’t practice on their home court everyday, any more. In high school, I’d bet most all teams shoot better at home.
Was thinking this same thing. I’ll look later but guessing home-away splits exist. You’d need a lot of data because all games aren’t created equal. Like playing @ home vs MSU is likely going to be a worse shooting night than playing @ North Dakota schools of mimes.
 

60's Guy

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5 and 0 in the must wins! Thanks for the breakdowns Selection!
 

Otis

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Flip a coin section looks like more of a bear after last night! ACC/B1G challenge is pretty much over already with a B1G 6-1 lead after night 1.

Impressive wins by Iowa, Illinois and a big 20 point win by Penn State! OSU, Purdue and Gophers struggled but only Purdue failed to come through.

Man, this conference is a bitch to play in.
 

BleedGopher

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After last night's dominating win over the Kangaroos, the Gophers are now 6-0 in Hodger's "Must Win" bucket.

Go Gophers!!
 

die hard gopher

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There isn't a game on the remaining schedule where I don't think we have a decent chance to win. Conversely there also isn't a game on the schedule where I don't think we have a decent chance to lose.
 

upnorthkid

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What do people think about this year and if the wins are obtained in different "buckets"? Say we sweep the must wins and grab 7-9 in the flip the coin category. Will that be sufficient or do we need to see a headliner win?
 

golf

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In the flip a coin, i think it is going to be tough for us in the st. louis, ohio state, michigan (2), rutgers (2) games.

Feel better about the Maryland (2), Purdue (2), Indiana, Penn St. games.

Getting 7 wins here seems doable but challenging.
 
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60's Guy

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Winning all 9 of the must wins would help. Shocking Illinois to kick things off would be a major boost!!! Gabe Scores 30 - Gophers Giddy Happy!!!!
 

Otis

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Hopefully Gabe will make the majority of his season's 3s tomorrow night.
 
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