Attrition of 2017 and 2018 classes

Face The Facts

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Much was discussed last year about the 2015 class attrition.

Now that Fleck has been here for a couple years, we're starting to see the attrition of his first couple classes (for whatever reasons).
Both classes were at 25.

2017 - No longer with the team (6)
Kendarian Handy-Holly
Adam Beck
Dominik London
Rey Estes
Nathan Bursch
Austin Schirck


2018 - No Longer with the team (5)
Alex Reigelsperger
Grant Norton
Jack York
Nolan Edmonds
Victor Viramontes

Of those, I believe only Handy-Holly played meaningful downs.
 

swelna

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To take in 25 each freshman class, you need an average attrition rate of 4 per year (if all were to redshirt, so you can realistically be a bit below that given some won't stay a 5th year):

25+21+17+13+9 = 85

So far those 2 classes have lost 11 players, which is 1 short of the average attrition rate (12) needed for 25 each class

So things are starting to line up such that PJ could take a full class each year if this continues...but that also means a perpetually young team/small graduating classes.
 

Livingat45north

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To take in 25 each freshman class, you need an average attrition rate of 4 per year (if all were to redshirt, so you can realistically be a bit below that given some won't stay a 5th year):

25+21+17+13+9 = 85

So far those 2 classes have lost 11 players, which is 1 short of the average attrition rate (12) needed for 25 each class

So things are starting to line up such that PJ could take a full class each year if this continues...but that also means a perpetually young team/small graduating classes.
There's also number of scholarships given to walk-ons.
 

mggoph

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Forgive my ignorance, but when did Nolan Edmunds leave? Reason?
 
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Face The Facts

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Forgive my ignorance, but when did Nolan Edmunds leave? Reason?
Don't know. Just read it today that he's not on roster.
Checked the roster and he's not there.

Chances are playing time with 4 guys ahead of him and a couple freshman added was making it tough.
Or something else.
 

swelna

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There's also number of scholarships given to walk-ons.
True, so lets say 5 a year need to leave, which leaves us at 80 on full scholarship if all redshirt. That leaves 5 open for walk-ons at a minimum + however many open up due to not everyone redshirting. In that case the average attrition to sustain an incoming class of 25 over the past 2 years is 15, 4 away from the current attrition rate. Given that there are probably 4 or so players at least that haven't redshirted, if the next few years continue at this pace, I'd assume PJ could get closer to 25 in every class with having 5ish scholarships open for walk-ons.
 

die hard gopher

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Much was discussed last year about the 2015 class attrition.

Now that Fleck has been here for a couple years, we're starting to see the attrition of his first couple classes (for whatever reasons).
Both classes were at 25.

2017 - No longer with the team (6)
Kendarian Handy-Holly
Adam Beck
Dominik London
Rey Estes
Nathan Bursch
Austin Schirck


2018 - No Longer with the team (5)
Alex Reigelsperger
Grant Norton
Jack York
Nolan Edmonds
Victor Viramontes

Of those, I believe only Handy-Holly played meaningful downs.
Beck and Handy-Holly were significant losses. Safety severely lacked depth last year and without Gerverarrius Owens, it is maybe our thinnest unit again his year.
 

hungan1

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PJ Fleck must have expected this level of attrition.
 

highwayman

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Beck and Handy-Holly were significant losses. Safety severely lacked depth last year and without Gerverarrius Owens, it is maybe our thinnest unit again his year.
With 19 DBs, 17 LBs, and 16 WRs, they might scare up one or two.
 
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Much was discussed last year about the 2015 class attrition.

Now that Fleck has been here for a couple years, we're starting to see the attrition of his first couple classes (for whatever reasons).
Both classes were at 25.

2017 - No longer with the team (6)
Kendarian Handy-Holly
Adam Beck
Dominik London
Rey Estes
Nathan Bursch
Austin Schirck


2018 - No Longer with the team (5)
Alex Reigelsperger
Grant Norton
Jack York
Nolan Edmonds
Victor Viramontes

Of those, I believe only Handy-Holly played meaningful downs.
Can you really count Alex, as he had a medical issue that forced him to retire?

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PMWinSTP

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PJ Fleck must have expected this level of attrition.
Hmm. Fleck = Expected; previous HCs = Unexpected. Did I get that right?

Fleck has said multiple times he wants larger, near full upper classes. Which is it?
 

Face The Facts

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Can you really count Alex, as he had a medical issue that forced him to retire?

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I'm just including all for whatever reason.

The debates can take place on reasons for all of them, but I just wanted to start out with the cleanest slate for comparing numbers.
 

Face The Facts

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Hmm. Fleck = Expected; previous HCs = Unexpected. Did I get that right?

Fleck has said multiple times he wants larger, near full upper classes. Which is it?
Yeh, I don't know if there is a right or a wrong way to do this, but it's becoming more apparent in college football that attrition rates will only increase now and into the future.
The 2015 class which would be redshirt-seniors this year had huge attrition and that was part of why our team was young last year and this year.
 

PMWinSTP

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Yeh, I don't know if there is a right or a wrong way to do this, but it's becoming more apparent in college football that attrition rates will only increase now and into the future.
The 2015 class which would be redshirt-seniors this year had huge attrition and that was part of why our team was young last year and this year.
Well, something has to give. Very hard to keep any significant number of RS all five years. The freshman class right now is at 31 scholarships.
 

short ornery norwegian

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If this trend of greater player movement continues, in another 10-15 years, the player who spends 5 years with the same program may become an endangered species.

Which is neither good nor bad. times change, and sports change with them.
 

Face The Facts

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If this trend of greater player movement continues, in another 10-15 years, the player who spends 5 years with the same program may become an endangered species.

Which is neither good nor bad. times change, and sports change with them.
You have opposing factors that will drive it.

If a player is too talented, they will transfer if they are told to wait before they can start.
If they are too talented and stay, they won't redshirt and / or they'll opt for NFL draft early.
If they redshirt and and end up playing, and aren't that good, your coach is probably on the way out.


The O-Line and D-Line would be the main exceptions yet where a fifth year would be more common (or injury as was the case with our RS Seniors Smith and Brooks).

We have 5 RS Seniors that started with us as freshmen
Smith - injury
Brooks - injury
Delattiboudere - DL
Herbers - specialist
Renner - DL
 

btowngopher

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I would be surprised if their was as much attrition as the 2015 class in either of these 2 classes. Coaching changes create a lot of attrition.
 

PMWinSTP

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17 and 18. As long as their isn't another coaching change.
Again, something has to give. With RS, those two underclasses are big. That 2017 class is seven down from signing and will need to get a lot smaller if Fleck wants to recruit full classes. If they stay, his recruiting classes will be small by necessity. 60 of the 85 scholarships are occupied by the current Fr/So classes.
 
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bemidjigopher

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Hmm. Fleck = Expected; previous HCs = Unexpected. Did I get that right?

Fleck has said multiple times he wants larger, near full upper classes. Which is it?
You just answered your own question, by taking larger classes you gave to have attrition one way or another, it's not a bad thing. Just like any student can get booted for having ****ty grades, anyone can be "encouraged" to move on for not being good enough to see the field

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PMWinSTP

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You just answered your own question, by taking larger classes you gave to have attrition one way or another, it's not a bad thing. Just like any student can get booted for having ****ty grades, anyone can be "encouraged" to move on for not being good enough to see the field

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No, I did not. If fleck wants larger upper classes, meaning less attrition, he has to have smaller recruiting classes. He has stated he wants near full upper classes...meaning junior and senior classes.Can't have both.
 

hungan1

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The landscape is changing with the transfer portal and other new realities in D1 Football.
 

btowngopher

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Again, something has to give. With RS, those two underclasses are big. That 2017 class is seven down from signing and will need to get a lot smaller if Fleck wants to recruit full classes. If they stay, his recruiting classes will be small by necessity. 60 of the 85 scholarships are occupied by the current Fr/So classes.
Right, I think recruiting 25+ classes every year is what is going to give.
 

Lakeville Goldy

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I'm just including all for whatever reason.

The debates can take place on reasons for all of them, but I just wanted to start out with the cleanest slate for comparing numbers.
I know he was technically not a Fleck recruit, but Neil McLaurin was a 2017 recruit. Fleck could not get him out of here fast enough.
 
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