The government exists for the purpose of doing things, for the betterment of our society.I am not sure about whose projections are right and whose are wrong. What we are seeing is indeed aligned with politics more than science though. There is pretty much ZERO incentive for anyone in a position of authority or influence on this thing to call for a "do nothing stance." It is simply not in Fauci's interest to recommend opening up quickly. If he pushes that, and a million people die, it will be viewed as his fault. On the other hand, if he recommends continuing the shutdown for another 18 months, and the death count is minimal, people will say "see it's good thing we kept that shutdown going; it sure saved a lot of lives." It won't matter at all if the death count would have been low anyway. It's the same with virtually every politician. State governors do not want to be viewed as "doing nothing." They have the same risk/reward situation as Fauci. And that is not just for COVID, it's anything. Politicians want to be viewed as "doing something." And by "doing something" this generally means passing new laws. Then the politicians are are lauded as courageous leaders taking a stand. The leaders I admire most are the ones who are willing to go against the mob, at their own peril. The ones who will stand up and say that it's better not to take any action at all in some cases. That takes courage. The general CYA approach doesn't.
Advocating that nothing should have been done, is nothing more than advocating for anarchy. It truly is the most absurd position imaginable.