2020 US Senatorial elections

KillerGopherFan

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This is going to be a big election for US Senate majority control. Thought I kick off a threat with some news.

North Carolina Dems just got a little October surprise.

 

short ornery norwegian

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anybody catch any of the South Carolina debate? Lindsey Graham did not have a good night.

A new poll found that 50% of likely voters in SC considered Graham to be dishonest.

more polling data:

A late-September poll from Quinnipiac University found the race dead even and every poll since September has it in single-digits. Furthermore, Graham’s opponent, Jaime Harrison, is flooding the airwaves with campaign ads, and is set to outspend Graham 7 to 1 in the last month of the election.
 

howeda7

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anybody catch any of the South Carolina debate? Lindsey Graham did not have a good night.

A new poll found that 50% of likely voters in SC considered Graham to be dishonest.

more polling data:

A late-September poll from Quinnipiac University found the race dead even and every poll since September has it in single-digits. Furthermore, Graham’s opponent, Jaime Harrison, is flooding the airwaves with campaign ads, and is set to outspend Graham 7 to 1 in the last month of the election.
Dems are now more likely to take SC than NC. Wouldn't have taken that bet 2 months ago.
 

howeda7

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This is going to be a big election for US Senate majority control. Thought I kick off a threat with some news.

North Carolina Dems just got a little October surprise.

I figured this was some story from 5 years ago. 2 months ago? How do you possibly let that happen? Idiot.
 

Wally

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This is going to be a big election for US Senate majority control. Thought I kick off a threat with some news.

North Carolina Dems just got a little October surprise.

Figured it was worse than raw dogging a porn star while your wife is pregnant....guess not.
 

TruthSeeker

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Senate was looking bad for the GOP. Cal's sexy tweets might save the Senate. Democrats will gain seats. Will they gain control? I think they will.
 

cjbfbp

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Senate was looking bad for the GOP. Cal's sexy tweets might save the Senate. Democrats will gain seats. Will they gain control? I think they will.
The current RCP average shows Cunningham with a 6 point lead. So, he does have a little cushion if he loses some support.

Meanwhile, Greenfield is now 5 points ahead of Joni Ernst on RCP. That election wasn't even considered a toss up a couple of months ago. Gideon is now 6 points up on Collins. Harrison is now tied with Graham in SC and clearly has the momentum. Kelly is 6 points up on McSally. They're not even polling the Colorado senate race anymore. There's been very little polling of the Montana race but a poll in mid-September showed Daines only ahead by 1.

Taking one of the Georgia seats is a longer shot but still possible. Alaska is even possible.
 

howeda7

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The current RCP average shows Cunningham with a 6 point lead. So, he does have a little cushion if he loses some support.

Meanwhile, Greenfield is now 5 points ahead of Joni Ernst on RCP. That election wasn't even considered a toss up a couple of months ago. Gideon is now 6 points up on Collins. Harrison is now tied with Graham in SC and clearly has the momentum. Kelly is 6 points up on McSally. They're not even polling the Colorado senate race anymore. There's been very little polling of the Montana race but a poll in mid-September showed Daines only ahead by 1.

Taking one of the Georgia seats is a longer shot but still possible. Alaska is even possible.
The Dems need 4 pick-ups. AZ and CO are near locks. Maine likely is too. NC was going to be the 4th. There are still a lot of options. Iowa, GA, SC, Kansas all possible. Even AK as you say.
 

howeda7

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Cunningham is still up 6 in NC in a poll taken 10/4-10/5. Maybe Don really has desensitized everyone to caring about a candidates sex life. I guess that's one good thing, if true.
 

TruthSeeker

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Cunningham is still up 6 in NC in a poll taken 10/4-10/5. Maybe Don really has desensitized everyone to caring about a candidates sex life. I guess that's one good thing, if true.
Maybe. The story needs time to breath. It helps that they never actually phucked.
 

howeda7

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Maybe. The story needs time to breath. It helps that they never actually phucked.
Perhaps, though it seems like the polls usually over-react negatively and then bounce back, such as after the Access Hollywood "grab 'em by the $%%^^" tapes.

In this case, the fact that it broke on a Friday night when Trump was hospitalized probably means it will take a lot longer to be widespread.
 

cjbfbp

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The Dems need 4 pick-ups. AZ and CO are near locks. Maine likely is too. NC was going to be the 4th. There are still a lot of options. Iowa, GA, SC, Kansas all possible. Even AK as you say.
I forgot about KS. Last I saw the Republican had a 3 point lead. If that one came through, that would be incredible since Kansas hasn't elected a Democratic senator since 1932.
 

howeda7

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I forgot about KS. Last I saw the Republican had a 3 point lead. If that one came through, that would be incredible since Kansas hasn't elected a Democratic senator since 1932.
The Dem candidate tweeted a poll showing her up 2, but I'm guessing it was internal. If only Kris Kobach had won the primary, it would be a lock.
 

KillerGopherFan

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I figured this was some story from 5 years ago. 2 months ago? How do you possibly let that happen? Idiot.
howie. It’s not just one sexting mistress. It’s two. Thom Tillis can relax. He’s got this.

Cunningham is a weirdo.
 

KillerGopherFan

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I figured this was some story from 5 years ago. 2 months ago? How do you possibly let that happen? Idiot.
Ooops. I misstated the second allegation. It’s not a sexting situation. It’s an actual affair with sex. 🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂
 

howeda7

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howie. It’s not just one sexting mistress. It’s two. Thom Tillis can relax. He’s got this.

Cunningham is a weirdo.
Why do feel the need to reply to me about it? I never said otherwise.
 

Livingat45north

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The Dems need 4 pick-ups. AZ and CO are near locks. Maine likely is too. NC was going to be the 4th. There are still a lot of options. Iowa, GA, SC, Kansas all possible. Even AK as you say.
How's Alabama doing for you libs? Are you going to hang onto that one? Noticed that you left it off your list. Guess that must be a "near lock" as well then. I mean, you wouldn't cherry-pick data to try to mislead folks. It's not like, say, there are a dozen recent polls from Iowa of which 11 show a close race mostly if anything in Trump's favor, and you'd only post the results of the one outlier that goes decidedly against Trump. You of course wouldn't do anything like that... There's not like a recent poll on AZ from ABC or such showing it to be a close race, can't be, or it wouldn't be a "near lock". And there certainly are not like any issues about the AZ Dem candidate lyin' to the public that came out today. Of course not, or it wouldn't be a "near lock". Thanks as always for keeping us informed.
 

KillerGopherFan

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The Dems need 4 pick-ups. AZ and CO are near locks. Maine likely is too. NC was going to be the 4th. There are still a lot of options. Iowa, GA, SC, Kansas all possible. Even AK as you say.
Wow, that is wishful thinking.

I won’t say this isn‘t going to be close b/c it could, but there’s not going to be a blue wave. God help us if there were.
 

KillerGopherFan

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The Dems need 4 pick-ups. AZ and CO are near locks. Maine likely is too. NC was going to be the 4th. There are still a lot of options. Iowa, GA, SC, Kansas all possible. Even AK as you say.
Just to dump on your Dem Dream Scenario, Marshall was up in the average of 3 polls reported on Sept 30 by an average of 3% in the Kansas Senate race. Daines has been up in every poll in Montana by a few percentage points since the summer. Perdue will win Georgia and Loeffler will win her run-off after Collins is out for the 2nd Senate seat and it won’t be close. Lindsey Graham will win SC with the strength of the Trump support there. Iowa is a dead heat, but Trump support will put Ernst over the top. And finally, Cunningham has stepped on his dick with his extra-marital situations while running as a candidate of character. That’s going to hurt him badly.

The biggest Republican weaknesses are in Colorado, Arizona and Maine. Alabama is a lock for the GOP/Tuberville.

If the above comes true, it’s still a GOP majority with 51 Senate seats.

The bottom line is that if Republicans hold on to Montana, Iowa, and SC, flip Alabama, and gain on Cunningham in NC after his sex scandals, it’s still a GOP majority 51- to 49.

If it’s 50-50, the winner of the WH gets the majority. The silver lining about that is that West Virginia Senator Joe Machin would never vote to end the filibuster. To end the filibuster, the reality is that the Dems will need to win 51 seats.
 

KillerGopherFan

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I'm old enough to remember when extra-marital affairs were unpopular among Republican voters.
Cunningham has admitted his circumstances and they were demonstrably provable. The only thing that’s been proven on Trump is that he paid someone to go away while he was running for President and that he says he could grab women in their private part without objection. So he says.
 

justthefacts

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Cunningham has admitted his circumstances and they were demonstrably provable. The only thing that’s been proven on Trump is that he paid someone to go away while he was running for President and that he says he could grab women in their private part without objection. So he says.
Nope, not a cult
 

howeda7

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Just to dump on your Dem Dream Scenario, Marshall was up in the average of 3 polls reported on Sept 30 by an average of 3% in the Kansas Senate race. Daines has been up in every poll in Montana by a few percentage points since the summer. Perdue will win Georgia and Loeffler will win her run-off after Collins is out for the 2nd Senate seat and it won’t be close. Lindsey Graham will win SC with the strength of the Trump support there. Iowa is a dead heat, but Trump support will put Ernst over the top. And finally, Cunningham has stepped on his dick with his extra-marital situations while running as a candidate of character. That’s going to hurt him badly.

The biggest Republican weaknesses are in Colorado, Arizona and Maine. Alabama is a lock for the GOP/Tuberville.

If the above comes true, it’s still a GOP majority with 51 Senate seats.

The bottom line is that if Republicans hold on to Montana, Iowa, and SC, flip Alabama, and gain on Cunningham in NC after his sex scandals, it’s still a GOP majority 51- to 49.

If it’s 50-50, the winner of the WH gets the majority. The silver lining about that is that West Virginia Senator Joe Machin would never vote to end the filibuster. To end the filibuster, the reality is that the Dems will need to win 51 seats.
I never said they would win them all. Just that they have a lot of options for the 4th one. The current RCP map has them at 51 with NC. If that flips it's 50/50. They are within 3 points in GA, KS, SC, MT. It's not unreasonable they would win one of them, especially if Biden is winning by 5+. it's a bigger assumption to think you'll run the table on them.
 

howeda7

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Cunningham has admitted his circumstances and they were demonstrably provable. The only thing that’s been proven on Trump is that he paid someone to go away while he was running for President and that he says he could grab women in their private part without objection. So he says.
Trump cheated on wife 1 with wife 2, wife 2 with wife 3, wife 3 with a porn star he paid off with campain funds and has been accused of sexual assault/harassment by at least 26 women. But you're on your high horse over this. Figures. Hypocrite.

Meanwhile, Lady G Lindsey Graham paying off rent boys left and right while bein an anti-gay hypocrite is no issue in his race, right?
 
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