2020 Presidential Election - Trump versus Biden

Livingat45north

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Oh crap. Not only is Trump doing great against Biden, he's also more popular than Obama was at this point in his presidency.

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Wally

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Ireland really hates Trump, they are going full lockdown just to ensure Trump doesn't get reelected. Will they ever stop interfering in our politics? The nerve!!!!

 

chri1673

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Ireland really hates Trump, they are going full lockdown just to ensure Trump doesn't get reelected. Will they ever stop interfering in our politics? The nerve!!!!

Cant believe trump let it get that bad over there.
 

Livingat45north

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It's no wonder the "non-biased" debate commission wanted to keep any discussion on the Middle East from popping up. Obama/Biden increased our involvement in never-ending wars; Trump is working to actually end them.

 

Livingat45north

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I only watched the first minute of the linked video in this tweet, but Luntz’s poll of undecided voters in the first minute tells it all. Lefties would be better off not to look.

You always have to wonder if these are really independent voters. Luntz is certainly not a fan of Trump. His recent quotes have been extremely critical. In the video though, it is a SOLID Trump win. Accross the board, these voters in the focus group swung heavily to Trump AND against Biden. It wasn't just that Trump did very well, it was also that Biden did really bad.
 

Plausible Deniability

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You always have to wonder if these are really independent voters. Luntz is certainly not a fan of Trump. His recent quotes have been extremely critical. In the video though, it is a SOLID Trump win. Accross the board, these voters in the focus group swung heavily to Trump AND against Biden. It wasn't just that Trump did very well, it was also that Biden did really bad.
Whatever it is you're saying, someone will surely chime in here and "debunk" it almost immediately. I'm no Nostradamus, but that's kinda what happens around here
 

bga1

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One interesting thing about this year with Dems pushing mail in voting is projections become a little more possible based on modeling early returns:
 

GopherJake

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One interesting thing about this year with Dems pushing mail in voting is projections become a little more possible based on modeling early returns:
Huh? They are releasing vote counts?
 

bga1

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These estimates are not vote counts. They are estimates based on what party the voter that ordered mail-in ballot have returned them. I wouldn’t put a lot of faith in them, but there are trends that can be detected.
It is kinda cool how many Democrats and Indys are attending Trump rallies though...:)
 

KillerGopherFan

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It is kinda cool how many Democrats and Indys are attending Trump rallies though...:)
There’s no doubt that that is true. Huge portions of the crowds are former Ds and Independents. I wouldn’t assume that that means he will garner those proportions of the general voting populace b/c most people that vote won’t attend rallies for various reasons.

However, I will say I have absolutely NO TRUST in the traditional polls that suggest Trump is 3, 4, 5 or 6% down in various battleground states. That is an absolute lie that even some Republican pollsters seem to want to believe. I watched Kristin Soltis Anderson say Trump won the debate, but it’s too little too late. Then I did a little research on her. She worked for Jeb Bush some years ago, which may explain her perspective.

I trust Trafalgar polling.
 

howeda7

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There’s no doubt that that is true. Huge portions of the crowds are former Ds and Independents. I wouldn’t assume that that means he will garner those proportions of the general voting populace b/c most people that vote won’t attend rallies for various reasons.

However, I will say I have absolutely NO TRUST in the traditional polls that suggest Trump is 3, 4, 5 or 6% down in various battleground states. That is an absolute lie that even some Republican pollsters seem to want to believe. I watched Kristin Soltis Anderson say Trump won the debate, but it’s too little too late. Then I did a little research on her. She worked for Jeb Bush some years ago, which may explain her perspective.

I trust Trafalgar polling.
Whew. That tricky woman almost penetrated your echo chamber! Thank God you smoked out her awful Bush-ism and could go back safely wrap yourself in your Tarflagger blanket.
 

KillerGopherFan

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Whew. That tricky woman almost penetrated your echo chamber! Thank God you smoked out her awful Bush-ism and could go back safely wrap yourself in your Tarflagger blanket.
There are Republicans that don’t like Trump. I want honest analysis. If someone blindly assumes these polls are absolutely correct, they are either a moron or a hack or both.
 

KillerGopherFan

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Comparing early voting straight up from 2016 to 2020, regardless of age group, is tricky. Democrats are voting in far greater numbers earlier than Republicans for different reasons. Fortunately, we assume that they only get to vote once. It doesn’t really matter when.
 

GopherJake

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No. They know registration identity of cast votes I believe.
Who is they? Where are you seeing this information? It is possible, but my guess, wrong. Every state is different, so I don’t know, but have seen no evidence and it’s counterintuitive. Releasing this information, if they have it, could affect subsequent voting. Please provide some evidence.
 

howeda7

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Wisconsin
Total ballots cast of 3.6 million registered voters: 844,000 for whom Hawkfish has support scores. Biden: 61 percent. Trump: 39 percent.

Ballots cast by newly registered voters: 66,000. Biden: 61 percent. Trump: 39 percent.


Ballots cast by sporadic voters: 10,000. Biden: 53 percent. Trump: 47 percent.


Republican takeaway: The numbers on early voting and polling don’t tell the whole story of Wisconsin. Rural whites are often undersampled in surveys and data on early votes aren’t always reported because smalltown clerks don’t have the resources to quickly process and report the information to the state.
Keith Gilkes (R), the Champion Group in Wisconsin: “In the past year or more, we've held more registration events and had more new registrations in rural parts of the state that Donald Trump won compared to what Hillary Clinton won. So, we have an influx of new voters and new registrants as well. If there’s a slight uptick in white non-college educated in the rural areas of the state, it’s hard to account for that in polls. People take this state for granted all the time, and it comes back to bite them in the ass, which Hillary Clinton learned.”
Democratic takeaway: Coronavirus cases are on the rise in Wisconsin, along with voter anger at Trump’s handling of it.
Sachin Chheda (D), Nation Consulting in Wisconsin: “Nobody's talking about Kenosha. They're talking about Covid. They're talking about these coronavirus numbers. And if you are a Republican counting on an in-person vote on Nov. 3, with the coronavirus numbers spiking, the chances of people showing up to vote are lower, especially if your base is older or more likely to get sick. They have to make up a huge deficit on Election Day in the middle of the biggest pandemic the country has seen in 100 years.”

 

fan of Ray Williams

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Read that 56 million have already voted. That's over 40% of the 2016 total. Haven't voted yet myself. Going to the polls on election day.
 

KillerGopherFan

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Wisconsin
Total ballots cast of 3.6 million registered voters: 844,000 for whom Hawkfish has support scores. Biden: 61 percent. Trump: 39 percent.

Ballots cast by newly registered voters: 66,000. Biden: 61 percent. Trump: 39 percent.


Ballots cast by sporadic voters: 10,000. Biden: 53 percent. Trump: 47 percent.


Republican takeaway: The numbers on early voting and polling don’t tell the whole story of Wisconsin. Rural whites are often undersampled in surveys and data on early votes aren’t always reported because smalltown clerks don’t have the resources to quickly process and report the information to the state.
Keith Gilkes (R), the Champion Group in Wisconsin: “In the past year or more, we've held more registration events and had more new registrations in rural parts of the state that Donald Trump won compared to what Hillary Clinton won. So, we have an influx of new voters and new registrants as well. If there’s a slight uptick in white non-college educated in the rural areas of the state, it’s hard to account for that in polls. People take this state for granted all the time, and it comes back to bite them in the ass, which Hillary Clinton learned.”
Democratic takeaway: Coronavirus cases are on the rise in Wisconsin, along with voter anger at Trump’s handling of it.
Sachin Chheda (D), Nation Consulting in Wisconsin: “Nobody's talking about Kenosha. They're talking about Covid. They're talking about these coronavirus numbers. And if you are a Republican counting on an in-person vote on Nov. 3, with the coronavirus numbers spiking, the chances of people showing up to vote are lower, especially if your base is older or more likely to get sick. They have to make up a huge deficit on Election Day in the middle of the biggest pandemic the country has seen in 100 years.”

So Wisconsin (liberal) citizens are pissed at Trump b/c he didn’t do what about CV? Wisconsin cases never had a surge until about 7 weeks ago. Did something Trump did dramatically change in Wisconsin in the last 2 months? Wisconsin’s mask mandate went into effect at the beginning of August. Wow, that really worked.

Wisconsin is almost a perfect example of how perception is reality, instead of reality being reality. It’s politics. If you’re argument is that the narrative is fooling people into believing Trump is at fault, you may be correct. If your argument is Trump is at fault for Wisconsin’s recent and only surge, you’re full of shit.

And, News Flash! Democrats are voting early and by mail. Republicans will vote more in-person and later.
 

GopherJake

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Wisconsin
Total ballots cast of 3.6 million registered voters: 844,000 for whom Hawkfish has support scores. Biden: 61 percent. Trump: 39 percent.

Ballots cast by newly registered voters: 66,000. Biden: 61 percent. Trump: 39 percent.


Ballots cast by sporadic voters: 10,000. Biden: 53 percent. Trump: 47 percent.


Republican takeaway: The numbers on early voting and polling don’t tell the whole story of Wisconsin. Rural whites are often undersampled in surveys and data on early votes aren’t always reported because smalltown clerks don’t have the resources to quickly process and report the information to the state.
Keith Gilkes (R), the Champion Group in Wisconsin: “In the past year or more, we've held more registration events and had more new registrations in rural parts of the state that Donald Trump won compared to what Hillary Clinton won. So, we have an influx of new voters and new registrants as well. If there’s a slight uptick in white non-college educated in the rural areas of the state, it’s hard to account for that in polls. People take this state for granted all the time, and it comes back to bite them in the ass, which Hillary Clinton learned.”
Democratic takeaway: Coronavirus cases are on the rise in Wisconsin, along with voter anger at Trump’s handling of it.
Sachin Chheda (D), Nation Consulting in Wisconsin: “Nobody's talking about Kenosha. They're talking about Covid. They're talking about these coronavirus numbers. And if you are a Republican counting on an in-person vote on Nov. 3, with the coronavirus numbers spiking, the chances of people showing up to vote are lower, especially if your base is older or more likely to get sick. They have to make up a huge deficit on Election Day in the middle of the biggest pandemic the country has seen in 100 years.”

It's not clear to me whether this data is based on polling or official data coming from the state of Wisconsin. Are you able to illuminate?
 
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