To an extent yes, but with the addition of public perception and the "prevailing winds", aka allowing them to see factors that polling does not.
Few examples:
- Texas for example trump only polling ahead by (RCP) +2.3. would indicate a much tighter race than the -350 odds would.
- Minnesota Biden +4.7 Would indicate a tighter race than the -350 odds would imply.
- Florida, Biden is +1.2 but Trump is the -160 favorite implying a %60 chance Trump carries FL (and moving daily more into Trumps favor). So there is obviously some positive public perception that Trump carries Florida.
- PA Polls have gone from Biden +3.8 to +3.6. odds indicting something else happening in PA
Pennsylvania (PA) | -250 | +185 | -185 | +140 |
For what its worth I think trump to win MI or MN @ +220 or +250 is a significantly better bet than Biden +245 to win Texas. (Despite the RCP Poll #s)
As of now the odds undoubtable view trump better than the polls, If the odds were based solely off of polls you would end up with what Nate silver is looking at, a +90% percent of a Biden victory aka -900.
Agreed that the sharp money generally comes in towards the end, and agreed that come election day the odds will be closer to 50/50. Something like Biden -130 and Trump EVEN, implying 55/45, or something along those lines.
I am sure you get most of that without me explaining it, Just my thought on why the odds, and how they move COULD be a better way to find trends this election cycle, as I do not trust the polls. Using the odds to try and grasp some sort of predictive measure for the election.