2020 Democrat Presidential Candidate News...

Section2

Well-known member
It wouldn't matter who the Ds put on stage, you wouldn't think any of them were competent because you equate seeing the world the same as you with competence. Your view on the quality of D candidates is as useless as BGAs.

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Not true at all. Biden 10 years ago would seem like a reasonable middle of the road candidate. A bunch of radical senators and a mayor of small town is the bench. No governors, which is historically the best road to the White House. It's frankly shocking.
 

Section2

Well-known member
How dare you
I like Tulsi obvs. But she's extremely green. She would need to become governor of Hawaii to be a formidable candidate. As it is, she stands out only because the rest of the candidates are so unacceptable. Amy is probably the best candidate, but she's just so bla and lacking any dynamic ability.
 

dpodoll68

Elite Poster
Nice going Sherlock!
Is it a shocking revelation that fans of a late-night television show skew largely leftward? The show starts at 11:30 PM on the east coast. Most of the regressives have had their evening porridge and are in bed by 8.
 

Section2

Well-known member
Is it a shocking revelation that fans of a late-night television show skew largely leftward? The show starts at 11:30 PM on the east coast. Most of the regressives have had their evening porridge and are in bed by 8.
Doesn't really explain why the content of the show leaped sharp left starting in 2009.
 

Section2

Well-known member

howie, where are you in this crowd? Feel the excitement! Minorities are going to come out in droves for this guy!
 

howeda7

Well-known member
Is it a shocking revelation that fans of a late-night television show skew largely leftward? The show starts at 11:30 PM on the east coast. Most of the regressives have had their evening porridge and are in bed by 8.
Fake News. Laura Ingraham gets yuge ratings at 10 PM on Fox News. Ask KGF.
 

KillerGopherFan

Active member
Here’s a bit of news that might concern some of you lefties that think that 2016 isn’t going to happen again. Howie, especially you, since you trust polling so much.

NYT/Siena Poll (among likely voters)
3766 Registered voters. +/- 1.8%

Trump vs Biden
Michigan - Biden +1
Pennsylvania - Biden +1
Wisconsin - Biden +2
Florida - Biden +2
Arizona - Biden +2
North Carolina - Trump +2

Trump vs Sanders
Michigan - Sanders +3
Pennsylvania - Trump +1
Wisconsin - Even
Florida - Trump +2
Arizona - Trump +4
North Carolina - Trump +4

Trump vs Warren
Michigan - Trump +4
Pennsylvania - Trump +2
Wisconsin - Trump +2
Florida - Trump +4
Arizona - Even
North Carolina - Trump +4

Biden won’t be able to hold those slight leads. Incumbents usually do better as the election nears.
 

howeda7

Well-known member
Here’s a bit of news that might concern some of you lefties that think that 2016 isn’t going to happen again. Howie, especially you, since you trust polling so much.

NYT/Siena Poll (among likely voters)
3766 Registered voters. +/- 1.8%

Trump vs Biden
Michigan - Biden +1
Pennsylvania - Biden +1
Wisconsin - Biden +2
Florida - Biden +2
Arizona - Biden +2
North Carolina - Trump +2

Trump vs Sanders
Michigan - Sanders +3
Pennsylvania - Trump +1
Wisconsin - Even
Florida - Trump +2
Arizona - Trump +4
North Carolina - Trump +4

Trump vs Warren
Michigan - Trump +4
Pennsylvania - Trump +2
Wisconsin - Trump +2
Florida - Trump +4
Arizona - Even
North Carolina - Trump +4

Biden won’t be able to hold those slight leads. Incumbents usually do better as the election nears.
Biden has bigger leads in other polls, but he is a gaffe machine far beyond his norms and everyone knows it.

On Warren/Sanders it is concerning and it's why I don't support them getting the nomination. Warren is losing to Trump by 6 in MI, because auto workers in MI don't want their healthcare they fought so hard for banned. She needs to pivot on this soon or it's a big problem.

If Dems want to win easily, they need to move on from Biden and pick one of Amy/Harris/Pete or Booker. Either that or Grandpa Joe needs to pick one of them as his running mate ASAP and commit to one term. Sort of like Trump tried to do with Kasich "You do the work, I'll be there for show."

As for Trump doing better as the election nears, his economy is already "roaring" and he's -12. What is going to happen to make his #'s go up exactly? Is he finally going to "become Presidential"? :rolleyes:
 
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KillerGopherFan

Active member
I think you’re wrong that others will poll better versus Trump. Nationally, Buttigieg is even with Trump. Take California and New York out of the mix, and Trump is kicking his buttigieg.
 

howeda7

Well-known member
I think you’re wrong that others will poll better versus Trump. Nationally, Buttigieg is even with Trump. Take California and New York out of the mix, and Trump is kicking his buttigieg.
Everyone outside of Biden/Sanders/Warren doesn't do as well because they don't have name ID yet. When you see Biden winning 49/41 but Pete tied 41/41, it's because 8% don't know who Pete is. But Trump's base is 41% in both cases. Most of those 8% aren't going to decide to vote Trump. Amy doesn't get polled against him usually but she'd probably have similar #'s. Both of them make the election a referendum on Trump. Do that and he loses. Make it "Scary socialists v Trump" and he has a chance.
 

KillerGopherFan

Active member
Everyone outside of Biden/Sanders/Warren doesn't do as well because they don't have name ID yet. When you see Biden winning 49/41 but Pete tied 41/41, it's because 8% don't know who Pete is. But Trump's base is 41% in both cases. Most of those 8% aren't going to decide to vote Trump. Amy doesn't get polled against him usually but she'd probably have similar #'s. Both of them make the election a referendum on Trump. Do that and he loses. Make it "Scary socialists v Trump" and he has a chance.
The more others come into the spotlight, the greater the scrutiny. Buttigieg hasn’t had that level of scrutiny, and there’s a couple reasons to believe he won’t go over well with a very important Dem voting block.. There are plenty of intelligent, articulate people in the country. That doesn’t make them likely presidential prospects. Buttigieg has been the mayor of a large Indiana town. Not exactly big time. And, Senators don’t usually make the best candidates b/c they don’t have a record of executive management. We’ve already seen Kamala wilt under the bright lights.
 

Section2

Well-known member
Everyone outside of Biden/Sanders/Warren doesn't do as well because they don't have name ID yet. When you see Biden winning 49/41 but Pete tied 41/41, it's because 8% don't know who Pete is. But Trump's base is 41% in both cases. Most of those 8% aren't going to decide to vote Trump. Amy doesn't get polled against him usually but she'd probably have similar #'s. Both of them make the election a referendum on Trump. Do that and he loses. Make it "Scary socialists v Trump" and he has a chance.
If you honestly think a mayor of a small town is winning, get mental help.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

balds

Active member
Democrats are in a bind. Choose Warren and they lose their big money Wall St. support. Choose Bernie and run a guy who openly tells the middle class that their taxes are going up to pay for anything and everything, citizen or not. Choose Joe and run a guy bordering on senility. Choose Pete and risk losing a huge chunk of their identity politics voting bloc. They know they are in deep trouble and thus the frenzy to get Trump out by any means necessary prior to the election. Barring some smoking gun on Orangey, I can't see any scenario in which any of the above defeat him in an election.
 

MplsGopher

Well-known member
Democrats are in a bind. Choose Warren and they lose their big money Wall St. support. Choose Bernie and run a guy who openly tells the middle class that their taxes are going up to pay for anything and everything, citizen or not. Choose Joe and run a guy bordering on senility. Choose Pete and risk losing a huge chunk of their identity politics voting bloc. They know they are in deep trouble and thus the frenzy to get Trump out by any means necessary prior to the election. Barring some smoking gun on Orangey, I can't see any scenario in which any of the above defeat him in an election.
Again ..... it seems that your cohort has well established "memes" for the top 3, but that you're reaching/struggling to come up with something for Pete. Basically at this point saying "... well, he just won't win, because ... yeah".

I'm not predicting anything, at this point.

But if Pete surges at Iowa, and starts looking like that guy ... do you really think the progressives or "identity voting bloc" will just say "ah F it, our person didn't win, screw the Dems, bring on Trump for 4 more years"??

You know in your heart that the correct answer to that is: not this time. They may have done that in 2016, under an incredibly poor assumption. Not again.
 

balds

Active member
Again ..... it seems that your cohort has well established "memes" for the top 3, but that you're reaching/struggling to come up with something for Pete. Basically at this point saying "... well, he just won't win, because ... yeah".

I'm not predicting anything, at this point.

But if Pete surges at Iowa, and starts looking like that guy ... do you really think the progressives or "identity voting bloc" will just say "ah F it, our person didn't win, screw the Dems, bring on Trump for 4 more years"??

You know in your heart that the correct answer to that is: not this time. They may have done that in 2016, under an incredibly poor assumption. Not again.
In California, 70% of African Americans voted for Prop 8 (Defense of Marriage , anti-Gay marriage).

Nationwide, over 50% of African Americans are opposed to Gay marriage.

Wasn't an issue in 2016, might be in 2020.
 
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