2019 Sagarin Preseason Predictions

Gopher07

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We're back for another year of mostly meaningless prognostication! As usual, I'll preface my first post of the season with my disclaimer - that is, these predictions are for fun, they're based on connections between teams and performance of these teams against expected values, and will likely change a lot, particularly early in the year. Basically, it's just a guess at this point, but it's for entertainment and debate, and thankfully doesn't mean anything when it comes to actual results. That said, it hasn't been too far off in recent years as far as final record is concerned.

Last year it had Minnesota on the line of 5-7 or 6-6 regular season (went 6-6), the year before it had them at 5-7 (went 5-7), and the year before that it said 8-4 was an outcome (went 8-4). All of those came pretty spot on at the end of the day.

All that to say that doesn't mean this year will be the same predictive outcome. However, the ratings would tell us it might be time to pump the brakes on the hype train. The Gophers find themselves in a lot of toss-up games, very few "sure things" and a few not-so-likely-to-win matchups. I expect, as usual, we'll find out a lot about the team in weeks 1 and 2 - a couple of toss-up games (one leaning in Minnesota's favor, one leaning in the opponent's) that, if the team performs well, could swing the season from borderline-bowl to maybe 8+ wins.

A reminder on how this comes together. I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent.

vs South Dakota State -6
@ Fresno State +2
vs Georgia Southern -13.5
@ Purdue +2
vs Illinois -14
vs Nebraska +5.5
@ Rutgers -10.5
vs Maryland -4.5
vs Penn State +9
@ Iowa +12
@ Northwestern +6
vs Wisconsin +7

Final record: 5-7 (3-6)

Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): vs Georgia Southern, vs Illinois, @ Rutgers
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): vs South Dakota State, @ Fresno State, @ Purdue, vs Nebraska, vs Maryland, @ Northwestern
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): vs Penn State, @ Iowa, vs Wisconsin
 
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Some Day...Maybe

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My favorite posts of the year. Thanks Gopher07! Will be interesting to see what it says after about week 5.


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Rescooter

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At first I didn't understand why they would peg us at 5-7. But practically thinking, we have one seasoned quarterback who only played 1/2 year. If he were to go down, there are only true freshman as a replacement. However, if we were to talk in investments terms, the BETA would be quite high for the Gophers going 5-7. Depending on your stomach for adventure, a few well-placed vegas bets could be very good.
 

Jeshurun

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I’ve always said Sagarin is a lousy, low-ratings hack. Certified Dink.
 

PoockItInfor6

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We're back for another year of mostly meaningless prognostication! As usual, I'll preface my first post of the season with my disclaimer - that is, these predictions are for fun, they're based on connections between teams and performance of these teams against expected values, and will likely change a lot, particularly early in the year. Basically, it's just a guess at this point, but it's for entertainment and debate, and thankfully doesn't mean anything when it comes to actual results. That said, it hasn't been too far off in recent years as far as final record is concerned.

Last year it had Minnesota on the line of 5-7 or 6-6 regular season (went 6-6), the year before it had them at 5-7 (went 5-7), and the year before that it said 8-4 was an outcome (went 8-4). All of those came pretty spot on at the end of the day.

All that to say that doesn't mean this year will be the same predictive outcome. However, the ratings would tell us it might be time to pump the brakes on the hype train. The Gophers find themselves in a lot of toss-up games, very few "sure things" and a few not-so-likely-to-win matchups. I expect, as usual, we'll find out a lot about the team in weeks 1 and 2 - a couple of toss-up games (one leaning in Minnesota's favor, one leaning in the opponent's) that, if the team performs well, could swing the season from borderline-bowl to maybe 8+ wins.

A reminder on how this comes together. I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent.

vs South Dakota State -6
@ Fresno State +2
vs Georgia Southern -13.5
@ Purdue +5.5
vs Illinois -14
vs Nebraska +5.5
@ Rutgers -10.5
vs Maryland -4.5
vs Penn State +9
@ Iowa +12
@ Northwestern +8
vs Wisconsin +7

Final record: 5-7 (3-6)

Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): vs Georgia Southern, vs Illinois, @ Rutgers
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): vs South Dakota State, @ Fresno State, @ Purdue, vs Nebraska, vs Maryland
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): vs Penn State, @ Iowa, @ Northwestern, vs Wisconsin
I’d bet my 401k that we do better than 5-7.
 

RememberMurray

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Remember way back in 2016, when we thought 9-4 with a bowl win was kind of so-so?
 

howeda7

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The idea that the spread against Wisconsin is greater than against SDSU is insulting.
 

Spoofin

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Thanks Gopher07. Appreciate the effort.
Love this thread.


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nsmike

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Even Sagarin admits that his rating aren't very good early in the season because they depend too much on previous years data. His methodology works much better 3 to 4 weeks into the season.
 

GopherWeatherGuy

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Sagarin has been dead on with the Gophers overall record prediction in the preseason the last 3 years. This will be the year he's wrong.
 

Pompous Elitist

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Even Sagarin admits that his rating aren't very good early in the season because they depend too much on previous years data. His methodology works much better 3 to 4 weeks into the season.
That’s all the thread title really had to say.
 

btowngopher

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We're back for another year of mostly meaningless prognostication! As usual, I'll preface my first post of the season with my disclaimer - that is, these predictions are for fun, they're based on connections between teams and performance of these teams against expected values, and will likely change a lot, particularly early in the year. Basically, it's just a guess at this point, but it's for entertainment and debate, and thankfully doesn't mean anything when it comes to actual results. That said, it hasn't been too far off in recent years as far as final record is concerned.

Last year it had Minnesota on the line of 5-7 or 6-6 regular season (went 6-6), the year before it had them at 5-7 (went 5-7), and the year before that it said 8-4 was an outcome (went 8-4). All of those came pretty spot on at the end of the day.

All that to say that doesn't mean this year will be the same predictive outcome. However, the ratings would tell us it might be time to pump the brakes on the hype train. The Gophers find themselves in a lot of toss-up games, very few "sure things" and a few not-so-likely-to-win matchups. I expect, as usual, we'll find out a lot about the team in weeks 1 and 2 - a couple of toss-up games (one leaning in Minnesota's favor, one leaning in the opponent's) that, if the team performs well, could swing the season from borderline-bowl to maybe 8+ wins.

A reminder on how this comes together. I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent.

vs South Dakota State -6
@ Fresno State +2
vs Georgia Southern -13.5
@ Purdue +5.5
vs Illinois -14
vs Nebraska +5.5
@ Rutgers -10.5
vs Maryland -4.5
vs Penn State +9
@ Iowa +12
@ Northwestern +8
vs Wisconsin +7

Final record: 5-7 (3-6)

Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): vs Georgia Southern, vs Illinois, @ Rutgers
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): vs South Dakota State, @ Fresno State, @ Purdue, vs Nebraska, vs Maryland
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): vs Penn State, @ Iowa, @ Northwestern, vs Wisconsin
Non-sense, I'm told we should expect no fewer than 9 wins this year.
 

Some guy

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Damn these kids and their consensual sex!
He wasn’t fired for sex. He was fired for outing himself as completely clueless in handling the media and for publicly undermining his boss.

The scandal wouldn’t have been a national story if the coach had handled it better.
 

Spoofin

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The scandal wouldn’t have been a national story if the coach had handled it better.
This is 100% wrong and very very naive.
10 FB players named in a rape allegation was going to be national news no matter what.


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dpodoll68

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He wasn’t fired for sex. He was fired for outing himself as completely clueless in handling the media and for publicly undermining his boss.

The scandal wouldn’t have been a national story if the coach had handled it better.
He was fired because he wasn't hired by the current AD.
 

RememberMurray

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To be honest, if Fleck peaks at 8-4 with a sex scandal then he should be fired too
How will we know when any coach has "peaked"?

Claeys was fired after ONE (count 'em) full season as head coach. That's not much time to establish that he'd reached some sort of peak.
 

salzie

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I sometimes wonder if this board will ever move past Claeys.
 

Schnauzer

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I'm pretty sure my gut has been as accurate in recent seasons as the Sagarin computer. My gut has the Gophers at 8-4 this season. It would seem very strange to step backwards in record in a year when the team is stepping forwards in talent, with a comparably "easy" schedule.
 

PitinoFan

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I sometimes wonder if this board will ever move past Claeys.
It was easy for me to do, because I didn’t see the team having long term success with him as HC.


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RememberMurray

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I sometimes wonder if this board will ever move past Claeys.
When P.J. Fleck returns Minnesota to football relevance and a winning tradition, a la Wisconsin, the past will be gone.

Kill/Claeys got this program to a certain level. Fleck was hired with the expectation that he would bring us to a higher level.
 

Pete smith

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It was easy for me to do, because I didn’t see the team having long term success with him as HC.


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Apparently all the college AD agree with you. He wasn’t hired as the HC by anyone for the numerous jobs that opened up since being fired here.
 

bottlebass

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Apparently all the college AD agree with you. He wasn’t hired as the HC by anyone for the numerous jobs that opened up since being fired here.
How do you know it wasn't Claeys choice? Maybe he decided he didn't need that stress and he just wanted to stay DC somewhere instead and have a long successful career as DC without all the added stress of being HC. Look at what coaching does to guys, kill for example or even someone uber successful like Urban Meyer has had his issues.
 

Some Day...Maybe

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There are only 1 or 2 games that are not a toss up at this point, IA and NW. As someone eluded to earlier, this could change quite a bit after 3 to 4 weeks.

After week 1 we could move to favorites in week 2 after week 2 we could move to favorites in week 4, etc.

Saragin had 5 wins last year? We had 6.


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Gopher07

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Saragin had 5 wins last year? We had 6.
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The preseason predictions last year had 5 or 6 (Purdue was a PICK).

As far as my interpretation of this year's preseason prognostication, it feels off - I'm in the camp of 7+ wins given returning talent - but then again, I might be underestimating the growth of our opponents relative to our own.
 
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