Would you take Northwestern's lows if we got their highs?

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LakerFan said:
I wouldn't take their record if you had to also take their fan base apathy. Even in those good years they were back page news and games we played against them in good years or following good years were in front of empty stands. At least when we have a modicum of success our fans get jacked up. I wouldn't trade the season opener atmosphere of the TCU game after Kills good year for any game played at Ryan field in the last 10 years.
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I think a neutral observer would say the Minnesota "apathy" is pretty comparable to Northwestern, only slightly not as bad. Outside of the heat in 2019 and a year or so in Kill's program it's pretty much a draw in my opinion. There have been several Big 10 Gopher games with well under 30,000 (actually in house) in recent memory. Were there even 30,000 at the Maryland game last week in perfect weather? Barely, I guess. Maybe.

As for games at Ryan Field in the past 10 years, I am sure the atmosphere had to be at least as good when they hosted Notre Dame in 2018. They lost that one, but still they were on their way to Indy that season.

They are dumping a ton of money into Ryan Field to basically rebuild it, I like their outlook long term.
 

Ope3 said:
I think a neutral observer would say the Minnesota "apathy" is pretty comparable to Northwestern, only slightly not as bad. Outside of the heat in 2019 and a year or so in Kill's program it's pretty much a draw in my opinion. There have been several Big 10 Gopher games with well under 30,000 (actually in house) in recent memory. Were there even 30,000 at the Maryland game last week in perfect weather? Barely, I guess. Maybe.

As for games at Ryan Field in the past 10 years, I am sure the atmosphere had to be at least as good when they hosted Notre Dame in 2018. They lost that one, but still they were on their way to Indy that season.

They are dumping a ton of money into Ryan Field to basically rebuild it, I like their outlook long term.
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IMO, It's not even close. We were meh last year, lost to BG this year, and we are putting 40K into the stands and filling most of the endzone with students every game. Northwestern won the big ten west last year and I just bought tickets for $15 for 12 seats together lower level. There will be 12-15K fans at the NW game this weekend.
 

noamfromm said:
I love the University of Minnesota -- and I may be in the minority -- but I would rather go to college in a smaller town where everything was focused on the university. Additionally with the great things we have in the city we also have more crime which can be a deterrent to more rural prospective students.
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Yeah, I agree. I love the U but I think going to school in a college town would have been more fun.
 



Ope3 said:
I think a neutral observer would say the Minnesota "apathy" is pretty comparable to Northwestern, only slightly not as bad. Outside of the heat in 2019 and a year or so in Kill's program it's pretty much a draw in my opinion. There have been several Big 10 Gopher games with well under 30,000 (actually in house) in recent memory. Were there even 30,000 at the Maryland game last week in perfect weather? Barely, I guess. Maybe.

As for games at Ryan Field in the past 10 years, I am sure the atmosphere had to be at least as good when they hosted Notre Dame in 2018. They lost that one, but still they were on their way to Indy that season.

They are dumping a ton of money into Ryan Field to basically rebuild it, I like their outlook long term.
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I think it was 42k
 



PoockItInfor6 said:
Looked quite full to me for most of the game… some ducked out early though.
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Hard to gauge, looked like a lot of room in the corners and in the shade. StarTribune article in 2019 had a statistic that 81.6% of tickets sold were actually used that season. Based on that I am quite confident in my 30-35k estimate. Probably right in the middle.

www.startribune.com

New ticket data another measure of excitement over Gophers' football season

Successful season spurs not only more sales, but a higher percentage of those tickets actually being used.
www.startribune.com www.startribune.com

LakerFan said:
IMO, It's not even close. We were meh last year, lost to BG this year, and we are putting 40K into the stands and filling most of the endzone with students every game. Northwestern won the big ten west last year and I just bought tickets for $15 for 12 seats together lower level. There will be 12-15K fans at the NW game this weekend.
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2018 - Northwestern at Gophers. Scanned ticket number, 15,160.

Yeah, give me the Big West titles any day. Apathy, whatever exists between the 2 programs not a huge difference, IMO. If secondary market is your gauge, trust me there will be plenty of good deals to be had for the Gopher/Illini game next week. Heck $25 will get one in the door from the Box Office, with plenty of room to find a seat in the lower bowl.
 



Hates Monikers said:
It is true that Northwestern has been a solid program for a while. The big dips after the West championships are easier to take knowing that even before winning the division the Wildcats had some really good years. The dips are harder to take if you're looking more short term.

Here's NU's record going back farther; I'm sure most of us would take this seven-year span:

2015: 10-3, 7-2 (finished 23rd in AP poll)
2016: 7-6, 5-4
2017: 10-3, 7-2 (17th in AP poll)
2018: 9-5 overall, 8-1 conference, West champions (21st in AP poll)
2019: 3-9, 1-8
2020: 7-2, 6-1, West champions (10th in AP poll)
2021: 3-4, 1-3 so far
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Fascinating question you asked. I'm going to extend your time series a few years further because that provides more illustration of your theme.
2012: 10-3 (finished 17th in AP poll)
2013: 5-7
2014: 5-7
2015: 10-3, 7-2 (finished 23rd in AP poll)
2016: 7-6, 5-4
2017: 10-3, 7-2 (17th in AP poll)
2018: 9-5 overall, 8-1 conference, West champions (21st in AP poll)
2019: 3-9, 1-8
2020: 7-2, 6-1, West champions (10th in AP poll)
2021: 3-4, 1-3 so far

Northwestern is the only team in the Big Ten (and probably one of the very, very few in college football) where you can see this much year-to-year variation in records. Most teams likely are either consistently good with an occasional mediocre or losing year (like Iowa), consistently poor/mediocre with an occasional successful year (like Indiana), or perhaps mediocre/poor for a stretch and then more successful in an adjacent period (like Iowa State).

I guess my answer to your question would be: NO. I would prefer not having many lows at all to having more lows but greater highs when they come. A lot of posters on this site seem to really value winning the Western Division but I have mixed feelings about that because that feat normally gets one a date with Ohio State and another loss on the schedule. I'd rather fewer bad moments than very occasional high moments with greater prestige. Prestige isn't much my thing anyway.

I tried to search around for what I thought would be my preferred pattern over Northwestern's. I'm not sure I could find one in the Big Ten but I wanted a team playing in a conference with 9 conference games for comparability. Here's what I came up with:

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This is the eight year tenure of Dana Holgorsen at West Virginia (he's now the coach at Houston). The first year (2011) they were in the Big East but the remaining years were in the Big 12. His WV team finished the season ranked in only 3 of those years (2011, 2016, and 2018), he won 10 games only twice over the eight years (one of those was in the Big East), but he had only one losing season and that was also the only one without bowl eligibility. In 5 of those 8 years he had a winning conference record and fell just short in two others but he had only one 7 win conference season.
 

LakerFan said:
I wouldn't take their record if you had to also take their fan base apathy. Even in those good years they were back page news and games we played against them in good years or following good years were in front of empty stands.
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What you're calling fan base apathy may be mostly a function of numbers. The U of M had just over 31,000 undergraduates in the fall of 2019. Northwestern had just over 8,000 in the fall of 2020. Lower enrollment also translates in lower numbers of alumni. Of course, U of M's undergraduate enrollment is also going to be far more homegrown and that translates into a higher percentage of local alumni as well.

As someone who spent about a decade in Iowa during my younger days, I would call the average Minnesotan far more apathetic about Gopher football than the average Iowan (at least eastern Iowan) about Hawkeye football. I've lived and worked here for almost 20 years now and I probably can count the number of people on one hand (definitely less than two full hands anyway) who have brought up the Gophers to me in a conversation.
 

cjbfbp said:
What you're calling fan base apathy may be mostly a function of numbers. The U of M had just over 31,000 undergraduates in the fall of 2019. Northwestern had just over 8,000 in the fall of 2020. Lower enrollment also translates in lower numbers of alumni. Of course, U of M's undergraduate enrollment is also going to be far more homegrown and that translates into a higher percentage of local alumni as well.

As someone who spent about a decade in Iowa during my younger days, I would call the average Minnesotan far more apathetic about Gopher football than the average Iowan (at least eastern Iowan) about Hawkeye football. I've lived and worked here for almost 20 years now and I probably can count the number of people on one hand (definitely less than two full hands anyway) who have brought up the Gophers to me in a conversation.
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Right. Iowa football is to Iowa what the Vikings are to most Minnesotans. Add to that Iowa has no other pro sports, and their only focus is on U of Iowa sports. Same for Nebraska.

When you really sit down and think about NW fans, they do ok considering the type of school, size of school, etc. They are just a bit unusual for the Big Ten. Maybe Vanderbilt has the same situation in the SEC?
 

Word said:
Maybe Vanderbilt has the same situation in the SEC?
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I suspect they do but even worse. There are a lot things that are more fun to do in Nashville than sitting in the stadium watching your school's football team get its butt kicked.
 



I want this thread to be history after this season, because we would have passed NW with a 11-2 2019 and trip to B1G Championship game this year. They haven't been to the Rose Bowl in 26 years and Fitzgerald will be under .500 in B1G play at the end of this season, for his career. We are currently at their level if we win the West.
 

Cayman said:
Northwestern went 1-2 out of conference in 2018 with a loss to Akron in the same season they won the division.
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I wonder if Wildcat fans celebrated the conference success in 2018 or spent all season griping about the Akron loss. It seems we have a sizable contingent of fans that won’t ever let go of the Bowling Green loss regardless of how the rest of the season goes.
 

If they had won one of their recent trips to Indy, I'd be a lot more likely to say "yes." Winning the B1G title would be exciting enough that I would endure a lot of bad football to get that done. A B1G championship could be the kind of season I'd be telling my kid about when he gets older. As much fun as 2019 was, "let me tell you about the year we had a very good record and finished pretty high in the rankings" doesn't have the same majesty as "let me tell you about the year we were champions."
 

cjbfbp said:
Fascinating question you asked. I'm going to extend your time series a few years further because that provides more illustration of your theme.
2012: 10-3 (finished 17th in AP poll)
2013: 5-7
2014: 5-7
2015: 10-3, 7-2 (finished 23rd in AP poll)
2016: 7-6, 5-4
2017: 10-3, 7-2 (17th in AP poll)
2018: 9-5 overall, 8-1 conference, West champions (21st in AP poll)
2019: 3-9, 1-8
2020: 7-2, 6-1, West champions (10th in AP poll)
2021: 3-4, 1-3 so far

Northwestern is the only team in the Big Ten (and probably one of the very, very few in college football) where you can see this much year-to-year variation in records. Most teams likely are either consistently good with an occasional mediocre or losing year (like Iowa), consistently poor/mediocre with an occasional successful year (like Indiana), or perhaps mediocre/poor for a stretch and then more successful in an adjacent period (like Iowa State).

I guess my answer to your question would be: NO. I would prefer not having many lows at all to having more lows but greater highs when they come. A lot of posters on this site seem to really value winning the Western Division but I have mixed feelings about that because that feat normally gets one a date with Ohio State and another loss on the schedule. I'd rather fewer bad moments than very occasional high moments with greater prestige. Prestige isn't much my thing anyway.

I tried to search around for what I thought would be my preferred pattern over Northwestern's. I'm not sure I could find one in the Big Ten but I wanted a team playing in a conference with 9 conference games for comparability. Here's what I came up with:

View attachment 14994

This is the eight year tenure of Dana Holgorsen at West Virginia (he's now the coach at Houston). The first year (2011) they were in the Big East but the remaining years were in the Big 12. His WV team finished the season ranked in only 3 of those years (2011, 2016, and 2018), he won 10 games only twice over the eight years (one of those was in the Big East), but he had only one losing season and that was also the only one without bowl eligibility. In 5 of those 8 years he had a winning conference record and fell just short in two others but he had only one 7 win conference season.
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I tend to agree with you. In the 1990s Williams Arena rocked, even though the Gophers were .500 (conference) in most of those years (before 1997), with the nice tournament runs in 89 and 90. But they showed they could beat anybody in the country at home, they were never bad and it was always fun. Over the long term, I'd probably take a team that was always good, even if it didn't end in a championship.

But what's good? What's enough? At Minnesota, going back to 1999 we've had 11 seasons with seven wins or more, and it looks like this year will make it 12. That's more than half the time (and we had six wins in four other seasons). We've been more competitive than casual Minnesota sports fans think. I think of six or seven wins as pretty much the norm for us -- with a few seasons with more wins and a few with less -- and I want more than that. I'd like it so at least eight or nine seems more "the norm," knowing we'd have the occasional season with more (or less).

Holgerson's record is a pretty good representation, but I think I'd need one of his seven-win seasons to be more like nine. If you turn one of his 10-win seasons into six, the record is still a bit better but looks a lot more like ours.
 

cjbfbp said:
Fascinating question you asked. I'm going to extend your time series a few years further because that provides more illustration of your theme.
2012: 10-3 (finished 17th in AP poll)
2013: 5-7
2014: 5-7
2015: 10-3, 7-2 (finished 23rd in AP poll)
2016: 7-6, 5-4
2017: 10-3, 7-2 (17th in AP poll)
2018: 9-5 overall, 8-1 conference, West champions (21st in AP poll)
2019: 3-9, 1-8
2020: 7-2, 6-1, West champions (10th in AP poll)
2021: 3-4, 1-3 so far

Northwestern is the only team in the Big Ten (and probably one of the very, very few in college football) where you can see this much year-to-year variation in records. Most teams likely are either consistently good with an occasional mediocre or losing year (like Iowa), consistently poor/mediocre with an occasional successful year (like Indiana), or perhaps mediocre/poor for a stretch and then more successful in an adjacent period (like Iowa State).

I guess my answer to your question would be: NO. I would prefer not having many lows at all to having more lows but greater highs when they come. A lot of posters on this site seem to really value winning the Western Division but I have mixed feelings about that because that feat normally gets one a date with Ohio State and another loss on the schedule. I'd rather fewer bad moments than very occasional high moments with greater prestige. Prestige isn't much my thing anyway.

I tried to search around for what I thought would be my preferred pattern over Northwestern's. I'm not sure I could find one in the Big Ten but I wanted a team playing in a conference with 9 conference games for comparability. Here's what I came up with:

View attachment 14994

This is the eight year tenure of Dana Holgorsen at West Virginia (he's now the coach at Houston). The first year (2011) they were in the Big East but the remaining years were in the Big 12. His WV team finished the season ranked in only 3 of those years (2011, 2016, and 2018), he won 10 games only twice over the eight years (one of those was in the Big East), but he had only one losing season and that was also the only one without bowl eligibility. In 5 of those 8 years he had a winning conference record and fell just short in two others but he had only one 7 win conference season.
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Well done.
 

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