What's This? Gonzaga Absent from Field of 68 Projection

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SelectionSunday

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Happy New Year!

We’re through Week #8 of the college basketball season. This week’s Field of 68 projection has a very rare (never?) occurrence. If you look toward the bottom of the projection, you’ll notice a team conspicuous by its absence. The Gonzaga Bulldogs are neither the WCC’s projected champion, nor a projected at-large qualifier. We’ll see if that holds, but for now the Bulldogs (#56 in the NET rankings) sit just outside the field as one of the “first 4 out”.

Also of note, St. Thomas currently leads the Summit League with its 2-0 conference mark but because the Toms are ineligible for the Summit’s automatic bid, second-place South Dakota State (1-0) gets the nod as the league’s auto-bid placeholder.

Automatic qualifiers from multiple-bid conferences are listed first. The automatic qualifier is the team with the best conference record (i.e. 2-0 is better than 1-0) or – in the event of a tie – the best NET ranking.

WEEK #8 FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION (through games played Dec. 31)
America East (1): UMass-Lowell (113)

American (2): FAU (18), Memphis (40)

ACC (4): Clemson (8), North Carolina (20), Duke (21), Virginia (54)

ASUN (1): Lipscomb (126)

Atlantic 10 (2): Dayton (25), Saint Joseph’s (53)

Big East (6): Villanova (26), UConn (9), Marquette (10), Creighton (14), Providence (49), Saint John’s (50)

Big Sky (1): Weber State (83)

Big South (1): Longwood (105)

Big Ten (7): Indiana (100), Purdue (3), Illinois (12), Wisconsin (17), Michigan State (29), Ohio State (33), Northwestern (72)

Big XII (7): Houston (1), BYU (2), Iowa State (7), Kansas (11), Baylor (19), Oklahoma (28), Kansas State (88)

Big West (1): UC-Irvine (66)

Colonial (1): Hofstra (96)

Conference USA (1): Louisiana Tech (74)

Horizon (1): Purdue Fort Wayne (82)

Ivy (1): Princeton (27)

MAAC (1): Marist (152)

MAC (1): Akron (122)

MEAC (1): Norfolk State (169)

Missouri Valley (1): Indiana State (32)

Mountain West (5): Colorado State (15), San Diego State (22), New Mexico (35), Nevada (36), Utah State (38)

NEC (1): Merrimack (201)

OVC (1): UT-Martin (167)

Pac 12 (3): Utah (16), Arizona (4), Colorado (30)

Patriot (1): Colgate (149)

SEC (9): Alabama (5), Tennessee (6), Auburn (13), Kentucky (23), Texas A&M (24), Mississippi State (34), South Carolina (44), Florida (47), Ole Miss (59)

SoCon (1): Samford (95)

Southland (1): McNeese (43)

SWAC (1): Southern U (189)

Summit (1): St. Thomas (132) – ineligible, replaced by South Dakota State (194)

Sun Belt (1): James Madison (31)

WCC (1): San Francisco (39)

WAC (1): Grand Canyon (42)
___________________________
Last 4 In: Saint John’s (50), Saint Joseph’s (53), Virginia (54), Kansas State (88)

First 4 Out: Miami-Florida (51), Gonzaga (56), Butler (60), Nebraska (63)

Dirty Dozen to Watch: Cincinnati (37), TCU (45), SMU (46), Texas (48), Saint Mary’s (52), Washington (57), Texas Tech (58), Virginia Tech (62), Wake Forest (64), NC State (68), Drake (73), Arkansas (89)

Non-Power 6 At-Large Bids (6): San Diego State (22), New Mexico (35), Nevada (36), Utah State (38), Memphis (40), Saint Joseph’s (53)

Moving In (10): Akron, Kansas State, Longwood, Louisiana Tech, Saint Joseph’s, St. Thomas (South Dakota State), San Francisco, UMass-Lowell, UT-Martin, Weber State

Dropping Out (10): Denver, Gonzaga, High Point, Kent State, Liberty, Miami-Florida, Morehead State, Portland State, Vermont, Washington

WEEK #9 GAMES TO WATCH
Tuesday
Butler @ Saint John’s, 7:30 (FS1)
Northwestern @ Illinois, 8 (BTN)
New Mexico @ Colorado State, 9:30 (FS1)
Wednesday
Clemson @ Miami, 7 (ESPN)
Indiana @ Nebraska, 8 (BTN)
South Dakota State @ Weber State, 8 (ESPN+)
Thursday
College of Charleston @ Hofstra, 6
Colorado @ Arizona, 8:30 (ESPN)
Utah @ Arizona State, 10 (ESPN2)
Friday
UConn @ Butler, 5:30 (FS1)
Illinois @ Purdue, 7:30 (FS1)
Saturday
North Carolina @ Clemson, 11 (ESPN2)
Mississippi State @ South Carolina, 11 (CBS)
Kentucky @ Florida, 11:30 (ESPN)
Saint John’s @ Villanova, 12 (FOX)
Providence @ Creighton, 1 (FS1)
Virginia @ NC State, 1 (ACCN)
Auburn @ Arkansas, 1 (ESPN2)
Nebraska @ Wisconsin, 1:15 (BTN)
Miami @ Wake Forest, 1:15 (CWN)
Ole Miss @ Tennessee, 5 (SECN)
Iowa State @ Oklahoma, 5 (ESPN+)
Utah @ Arizona, 7 (PAC12N)
Texas Tech @ Texas, 7 (ESPN2)
Colorado @ Arizona State, 7 (ESPNU)
Ohio State @ Indiana, 7 (FOX)
Colorado State @ Utah State, 8
Cincinnati @ BYU, 9 (ESPN2)

REMAINING UNBEATENS (3)
#1 Houston
#29 James Madison
#60 Ole Miss

Note: Records indicated in below power rankings are vs. Division 1 opponents only

BIG TEN POWER RANKINGS
1 Purdue (12-1)
2 Wisconsin (9-3)
3 Illinois (10-2)
4 Northwestern (10-2)
5 Ohio State (11-2)
6 Michigan State (8-5)
7 Nebraska (11-2)
8 Indiana (10-3)
9 Minnesota (10-3)
10 Maryland (9-4)
11 Michigan (6-7)
12 Iowa (8-5)
13 Rutgers (8-4)
14 Penn State (7-6)

SUMMIT LEAGUE POWER RANKINGS
1 St. Thomas (7-5)
2 South Dakota State (4-7)
3 Denver (5-6)
4 Oral Roberts (3-7)
5 Omaha (3-8)
6 South Dakota (5-7)
7 North Dakota State (4-7)
8 North Dakota (5-7)
9 Kansas City (3-9)

STATE OF MINNESOTA IN THE RANKINGS
NET: Gophers #86, Tommies #132
KenPom: Gophers #81, Tommies #140
Haslametrics: Gophers #64, Tommies #101
 
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St. Mary’s hasn’t been world beaters either. Zags will need to win tournament, but probably will.
 

Holy Man said:
St. Mary’s hasn’t been world beaters either. Zags will need to win tournament, but probably will.
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St. Mary’s has a better resume than Gonzaga or SF, at least when it comes to wins against tournament quality teams. They also have some bad losses, though.

The NET rankings are, for lack of a better term, weird in comparison to the analytics sites. It makes sense to use them because the NCAA uses them, period. But their results are less (personally) trustworthy in describing relative rankings. The NET is gameable via scheduling. Just scanning a bit, most teams are relatively close between the sites, but sometimes there are big differences. Gonzaga and St. Mary’s are examples.
 




Indiana has been holding onto the Big Ten’s auto bid by virtue of being 2-0 in conference, but I’m assuming they won’t contend for first place at the end of the season. Are they more of a bubble team if they don’t win the Big Ten tournament?
 

Cayman said:
Indiana has been holding onto the Big Ten’s auto bid by virtue of being 2-0 in conference, but I’m assuming they won’t contend for first place at the end of the season. Are they more of a bubble team if they don’t win the Big Ten tournament?
Click to expand...

Their resume is slightly better than ours for perspective. Going to have to get to 22 wins to feel comfortable.
 

Some miscellaneous "Quad" numbers of the 68 teams currently in the Field of 68.

Quad 1 Wins
4: Arizona, Houston, Purdue

3: Clemson, Dayton, Kansas, Marquette, Texas A&M, Villanova, Wisconsin

2: Baylor, Colorado State, Creighton, Duke, FAU, Grand Canyon, Kansas State, Memphis, Nevada, North Carolina, Northwestern, Providence, Saint Joseph's, Tennessee, UConn, Utah, Virginia

1: BYU, Florida, Illinois, James Madison, Kentucky, Michigan State, Ohio State, Ole Miss, Saint John's, San Diego State, South Carolina, Southern U, Utah State, Weber State

0: Akron, Alabama, Auburn, Colgate, Colorado, Hofstra, Indiana, Indiana State, Iowa State, Lipscomb, Longwood, Louisiana Tech, Marist, McNeese, Merrimack, Mississippi State, New Mexico, Norfolk State, Oklahoma, Princeton, Purdue Fort Wayne, St. Thomas, Samford, San Francisco, South Dakota State, UC-Irvine, UMass-Lowell, UT-Martin

Quad 1/Quad 2 Combined Wins
7: Memphis, Purdue

5: Clemson, Colorado State, FAU, UConn, Utah

4: Arizona, Colorado, Grand Canyon, Houston, Kansas, Marquette, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, San Diego State, Tennessee, Villanova, Wisconsin

3: Alabama, Auburn, Creighton, Dayton, Florida, James Madison, Kentucky, Michigan State, North Carolina, Ole Miss, Princeton, Providence, Saint John's, Texas A&M, Utah State

2: Baylor, BYU, Colgate, Duke, Illinois, Iowa State, Kansas State, McNeese, Nevada, New Mexico, Northwestern, Saint Joseph's, South Carolina, Southern U, Virginia

1: Indiana, Indiana State, Louisiana Tech, Norfolk State, Ohio State, Purdue Fort Wayne, San Francisco, UC-Irvine, UMass-Lowell, Weber State

0: Akron, Hofstra, Lipscomb, Longwood, Marist, Merrimack, St. Thomas, Samford, South Dakota State, UT-Martin

"Bad" Losses (vs. Quad 3/4 Combined)
0: Akron, Alabama, Arizona, Auburn, Baylor, BYU, Clemson, Colorado State, Creighton, Dayton, Duke, Florida, Grand Canyon, Houston, Illinois, Indiana, Indiana State, Iowa State, James Madison, Kansas, Kansas State, Marquette, McNeese, Memphis, Michigan State, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Princeton, Providence, Purdue, Purdue Fort Wayne, Samford, San Diego State, San Francisco, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas A&M, UConn, Utah, Utah State, Wisconsin

1: Colorado, Kentucky, Longwood, Louisiana Tech, Mississippi State, Northwestern, Saint John's, Saint Joseph's, UC-Irvine, Virginia

2: FAU, Hofstra, Lipscomb, Southern U, UMass-Lowell, UT-Martin, Villanova

3: Colgate, Merrimack, Weber State

4: Marist, Norfolk State, St. Thomas, South Dakota State

True Road Wins
6: Princeton

5: James Madison, UMass-Lowell

4: Longwood, Marist, UT-Martin

3: McNeese, Memphis, Purdue Fort Wayne, St. Thomas

2: Akron, Arizona, Clemson, Colorado State, Creighton, Grand Canyon, Indiana State, Lipscomb, Louisiana Tech, Nevada, Norfolk State, Ole Miss, Samford, San Diego State, Southern U, Texas A&M, UC-Irvine, Utah State, Villanova, Weber State

1: Colgate, Dayton, Hofstra, Houston, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Kentucky, Marquette, Merrimack, New Mexico, Northwestern, Saint John's, Saint Joseph's, San Francisco, South Carolina, South Dakota State, Tennessee, Utah, Wisconsin

0: Alabama, Auburn, Baylor, BYU, Colorado, Duke, Florida, FAU, Michigan State, Mississippi State, North Carolina, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Providence, Purdue, UConn, Virginia
 
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Cayman said:
Indiana has been holding onto the Big Ten’s auto bid by virtue of being 2-0 in conference, but I’m assuming they won’t contend for first place at the end of the season. Are they more of a bubble team if they don’t win the Big Ten tournament?
Click to expand...
If not for the auto bid, I would not have Indiana anywhere near the bubble. Resume is weak.
 



Wet_Blanket_Guy said:
When looking at the talent on their roster this year, compared to the last 6 years (which had a bunch of NBA players), they have very little talent…it’s odd watching them now.
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Lack of depth and lack of guards is killing them. Team cant shoot. Losing Salis who is killing it at Wake was crucial

And Nembhard transfering from Creighton is looking like one of those moves that didnt work for either parties. creighton badly needs a PG and hes been brutal with the Zags
 

SelectionSunday said:
Happy New Year!

We’re through Week #8 of the college basketball season. This week’s Field of 68 projection has a very rare (never?) occurrence. If you look toward the bottom of the projection, you’ll notice a team conspicuous by its absence. The Gonzaga Bulldogs are neither the WCC’s projected champion, nor a projected at-large qualifier. We’ll see if that holds, but for now the Bulldogs (#56 in the NET rankings) sit just outside the field as one of the “first 4 out”.

Also of note, St. Thomas currently leads the Summit League with its 2-0 conference mark but because the Toms are ineligible for the Summit’s automatic bid, second-place South Dakota State (1-0) gets the nod as the league’s auto-bid placeholder.

Automatic qualifiers from multiple-bid conferences are listed first. The automatic qualifier is the team with the best conference record (i.e. 2-0 is better than 1-0) or – in the event of a tie – the best NET ranking.

WEEK #8 FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION (through games played Dec. 31)

Patriot (1): Colgate (149)
Click to expand...
I'm rather skeptical on Colgate's NCAA hopes this year, though I have only seen them play one half vs the Illini on the tube. After beating Brown they have gotten thrashed by 3 of the Ivys, Yale, Harvard and Cornell. Usually they hold their own against those teams.

Patriot action starts tonight.
 

Ope3 said:
I'm rather skeptical on Colgate's NCAA hopes this year, though I have only seen them play one half vs the Illini on the tube. After beating Brown they have gotten thrashed by 3 of the Ivys, Yale, Harvard and Cornell. Usually they hold their own against those teams.

Patriot action starts tonight.
Click to expand...
Keep the faith!

Even if the Raiders are down quite a bit, is there anyone in the PL that can compete with 'em? League looks pretty down, currently ranked #29.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Keep the faith!

Even if the Raiders are down quite a bit, is there anyone in the PL that can compete with 'em? League looks pretty down, currently ranked #29.
Click to expand...
True, the conference as a whole performed rather poorly in the Non-Conference. Not sure how much can be garnered from that with the number of Buy Games they schedule.
 
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Ope3 said:
True, the conference as a whole performed rather poorly in the Non-Conference. Not sure how much can be garnered from that with the number of Buy Games the schedule.
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From their perspective, aren’t those Sell games?
 

formerlybis said:
From their perspective, aren’t those Sell games?
Click to expand...
True, more appropriate term.

Patriot teams are the fodder for the Big Boys, though Colgate had beat NY rival Syracuse twice in a row until this season.
 


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