SP+ Implied Lines - 2024 Minnesota

[hello-world]

Went through and looked at some of the SP+ numbers for 2024. Pretty surprised to see that Minnesota would be tentative dogs to Rutgers (SP+ really likes their defense). Also surprised to see touchdown favorites against UNC. I would guess that a lot of that stems from losing Drake Maye.

Also think there's an argument that SP+ gets less accurate as players transfer around more, but I do like it as an 'impartial' measure of what the Gopher should try to exceed in 2024.

 

[Arminius]

Forgive me... what is SP+? I'll hang up and listen.

 

[Pompous Elitist]

Interesting stuff and I love the SP stats but in this day and age maybe less useful than ever early in the season. Hasn’t almost every QB in the conference changed, for just one example? How TF do you even begin to account for that. I guess one can try.

My takeaway and prediction assuming MN improves to where we think they can be is that there are going to be a lot of very tough, close contests.

 

[hello-world]

Interesting stuff and I love the SP stats but in this day and age maybe less useful than ever early in the season. Hasn’t almost every QB in the conference changed, for just one example? How TF do you even begin to account for that. I guess one can try.

My takeaway and prediction assuming MN improves to where we think they can be is that there are going to be a lot of very tough, close contests.

Yeah, other than the usual suspects (a couple of warmup games + Michigan & Penn State), there are not many two-score lines in that list.

 

[Drake University Gopher]

Gotta start out hot and beat UNC/Iowa at home!

 

[hungan1]

Does it take into consideration the coaching staff changes?

We lost Rossi on Defense and the book on Greg Harbaugh is still being written.

 

[hello-world]

Does it take into consideration the coaching staff changes?

We lost Rossi on Defense and the book on Greg Harbaugh is still being written.

Sure doesn't. Returning production, recent recruiting, and recent history. It's a wild guess just like everything else right now, but I like it because it takes an impartial view. Minnesota has 85th-best offense, and 22nd-best defense in the scores reflected above. Expected to score 23.3 points against an "average" FBS defense and give up 19.1 points against an "average" FBS offense.

For context, Arkansas is probably the closest archetype to an "average" team in the model this year.