Snapshot Look At NCAA Tournament Field: Through March 5

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SelectionSunday

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UPDATED THROUGH: Friday, March 5 results

Here's a breakdown of how I view the Field of 68 and (potential) bubble teams as we finish the last week of the regular season and dive in to conference tournaments. I will update this post daily up until Selection Sunday (March 13). The next opponent for non-"Locked & Loaded" teams is noted in parentheses.

Bold indicates a team moved to a different group after the previous day's results.

ESTIMATED 1-BID CONFERENCES (23)

LOCKED & LOADED (35) -- lock for NCAA field even if lose remaining games:
1 Alabama
2 Arizona (Pac 12 auto bid holder)
3 Arkansas
4 Auburn (SEC auto bid holder)
5 Baylor
6 Boise (Mountain West auto bid holder)
7 Colorado State
8 Duke (ACC auto bid holder)
9 Gonzaga (WCC auto bid holder)
10 Houston (American auto bid holder)
11 Iowa
12 Illinois
13 Kansas (Big XII auto bid holder)
14 Kentucky
15 LSU
16 Marquette
17 Miami-Florida
18 Michigan State
19 Murray (OVC auto bid)
20 North Carolina
21 Ohio State
22 Providence (Big East auto bid holder)
23 Purdue
24 Saint Mary's
25 San Diego State
26 San Francisco
27 Seton Hall
28 Tennessee
29 Texas
30 Texas Tech
31 UCLA
32 UConn
33 USC
34 Villanova
35 Wisconsin

LOCK WITH WIN IN FINAL REGULAR SEASON GAME (2)
1 Memphis (Sunday: Houston)
2 Rutgers (Sunday: Penn State)

HIGHLY LIKELY IN, BUT CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT WIN LOCKS IT UP (4)
1 Creighton (Thursday: vs. Marquette)
2 Iowa State (Thursday: vs. Texas Tech)
3 Notre Dame (Thursday: vs. Virginia Tech/Clemson/NC State)
4 TCU (Thursday: vs. Texas)

SQUARELY ON THE BUBBLE (10)
1 BYU (season complete)
2 Dayton (Friday: vs. George Washington/UMass)
3 Florida (Thursday: vs. Texas A&M)
4 Loyola-Chicago (Sunday: vs. Drake)
5 Michigan (Sunday: @ Ohio State)
6 SMU (Sunday: Tulane)
7 VCU (Friday: vs. Richmond/Rhode Island/Duquesne)
8 Wake Forest (Wednesday: vs. Pitt/Boston College)
9 Wyoming (Thursday: vs. UNLV)
10 Xavier (Wednesday: vs. Butler)

LONGSHOT (6) -- must win 2 or 3 in conference tourney to get a sniff
1 Indiana (Wednesday: vs. TBD)
2 Oklahoma (Thursday: vs. Baylor)
3 Texas A&M (Thursday: vs. Florida)
4 UAB (Thursday: vs. FAU/UTSA/Southern Miss)
5 Virginia (Wednesday: vs. Louisville/Georgia Tech)
6 Virginia Tech (Wednesday: vs. Clemson/NC State)
 
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Question if you could -

Team A is 21-8 w/ the 54th SOS. They are 32nd in SOR, are a game below .500 in Q1/2, and have no Q3/4 losses.

Team B is 20-9 w/ the 20th SOS. They are 24th in SOR, are 2 games above .500 in Q1/2, and have no Q3/4 losses.

Why is Team A locked and loaded while Team B still needs a win?
 

I'm depressed (realtively speaking, just talking bball depression here)

I thought for sure Gophers would at least be in the NCAA discussion this time of the year based off of what we saw in NC season.
 

JimmyJamesMD said:
I'm depressed (realtively speaking, just talking bball depression here)

I thought for sure Gophers would at least be in the NCAA discussion this time of the year based off of what we saw in NC season.
Click to expand...
I believe your diagnosis is faulty...you suffered from delusion.
 



Minnesota Jay said:
Question if you could -

Team A is 21-8 w/ the 54th SOS. They are 32nd in SOR, are a game below .500 in Q1/2, and have no Q3/4 losses.

Team B is 20-9 w/ the 20th SOS. They are 24th in SOR, are 2 games above .500 in Q1/2, and have no Q3/4 losses.

Why is Team A locked and loaded while Team B still needs a win?
Click to expand...
Great question. And you forgot to mention Team B has a head to head win over Team A!

Some of this is feel & nuance. Though it’s not an official “criteria” used by the selection committee, I do think the committee pays attention to teams’ conference record, what conference they play in, etc. If a team is a couple games below .500 in their conference, even if it is
the best conference in the country, it matters.

That’s pretty much the only reason I don’t have Iowa State (Team B) locked in at this point even though they have 4 really solid nonconference wins. Now if it came down to simply Team A (Iowa) vs. Iowa State for the final spot in the field, I’d definitely have it flipped.

In the end, I think both get in.
 
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JimmyJamesMD said:
Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things
Click to expand...
Maybe impossible to overachieve as a participant without hope, optimism, a dose of delusion.
But as a fan? Being basketball depressed because the Gophers aren’t on the bubble is poor analysis. I too had hopes for the Gophers but accepted it was highly improbable. The Gophers overachieved this season which makes me very optimistic about Ben and the team going forward.
 


Michigan with a necessary win and I don't really get the MSU love.
 





I read here that WI would be down this year and MN would finish outside of the bottom 4 teams AKA the Pitino zone.
 

Seton Hall earns lock status.

Snapshot has been updated through Wednesday results.
 



SelectionSunday said:
Great question. And you forgot to mention Team B has a head to head win over Team A!

Some of this is feel & nuance. Though it’s not an official “criteria” used by the selection committee, I do think the committee pays attention to teams’ conference record, what conference they play in, etc. If a team is a couple games below .500 in their conference, even if it is
the best conference in the country, it matters.

That’s pretty much the only reason I don’t have Iowa State (Team B) locked in at this point even though they have 4 really solid nonconference wins. Now if it came down to simply Team A (Iowa) vs. Iowa State for the final spot in the field, I’d definitely have it flipped.

In the end, I think both get in.
Click to expand...

Didn't expect getting blown out at home vs OkSt however...
 

Snapshot has been updated through games played Thursday night. Memphis & San Diego State inch closer to the Field of 68.
 



Snapshot has been updated through Friday results.

Lots of impactful Bubblicious games today, with BYU vs. San Francisco (9:30, ESPN2) at the top of the list. Here are the rest:

Davidson @ Dayton (11:30, USA Network)
Miami @ Syracuse (12, ESPNU)
Kentucky @ Florida (1, CBS)
Indiana @ Purdue (1, ESPN)
Virginia Tech @ Clemson (1, ACC Network)
TCU @ West Virginia (1, ESPN+)
Seton Hall @ Creighton (1:30, FOX)
Pitt @ Notre Dame (1:30,ESPN News)
Louisiana Tech @ UAB (2)
Loyola @ Northern Iowa (2:30, CBS Sports Network)
Oregon @ Wazzu (3, CBS)
Oklahoma @ K-State (3, ESPN+)
VCU @ Saint Louis (3, ESPN2)
Fresno @ Wyoming (3)
Iowa State @ Baylor (5, ESPN2)
North Carolina @ Duke (5, ESPN)
Georgetown @ Xavier (6, FS1)
Mississippi State @ Texas A&M (7:30, SEC Network)
San Diego State @ Nevada (9:30, CBSSN)
 

Probably the biggest surprise thus far on the "locked and loaded" 31, at least to me, is just one ACC team. Amazing for that conference.
 


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