Big 10 guesstimate
Bleed, obviously a lot can happen and there's a long way to go to March 15th, but here's how I'd assess each of the Big 10 teams' chances to get a NCAA at-large bid (in the event they don't win the BTT). For now, despite its #10 RPI ranking, I'm keeping Northwestern out of the conversation. Until NW pulls off a surprise or two in the Big 10, I'm not considering the Wildcats a legitimate NCAA candidate.
In addition, I'm making an assumption for 2 teams. ... Michigan State & Purdue will make the NCAA Tournament. Those are the only teams in the Big 10 I'm 100% confident will be nowhere near the bubble on Selection Sunday.
Michigan #1, then Ohio State
Leading the way, I think, are Michigan and Ohio State. Odds are 9-9 during the regular season will be enough get them into the NCAA. Both have multiple out-of-conference wins that in all likelihood will be considered "quality" at the end of the season. Michigan beat Duke and UCLA, while OSU has wins over Butler, Miami-Florida and Notre Dame. Lighty's injury, obviously, is something to watch.
Illinois & the Gophers the next tier
A 10-8 finish by Illinois or the Gophers should put them in good shape, but I'd put the Illini slightly ahead of the Gophers to this point. The Gophers have a much better "signature win" than the Illini (Louisville vs. Mizzou), but Illinois has played a significantly better nonconference schedule. The Illini have a lot of solid-but-not-great wins, while the Gophers have feasted mostly on marshmallows. Collectively Illinois' wins over Georgia (BCS), Mizzou (BCS), Tulsa (perhaps 2nd best team in C-USA) and Vandy (BCS) could look pretty good in March. It would help the Gophers immensely if Cornell (Ivy favorite), Virginia (BCS) and to a lesser extent NDSU (one of Summit favorites) put together good seasons.
Badgers have work to do
Heading into the Big 10 season I think UW (for a change) has reason to be nervous. The Badgers don't really have a signature win. The win at Virginia Tech is a good win, but the Badgers have lost every other significant nonconference game they've played (Marquette, Texas, UConn). 10-8 might be good enough for the Badgers, but I wouldn't bank on it.
Penn State needs to kick a*s in the Big 10
I'd have Penn State clearly at the bottom of the Big 10 totem pole with regards to possible at-large teams. The Nitts' win at Georgia Tech was nice, but Tech has been a major bust this season. The Nitts are 11-2, but all they've done is beat a bunch of creampuffs. Hence, the #149 RPI ranking. Penn State needs to go at least 11-7, and 3-4 of those wins better be against the upper-tier of the Big 10, not just the middle & bottom.
