Prediction for 2010 Football Season!

[Sean Lumpkin]

Are we already resigning to "there's always next year"? Practice hasn't even started yet!

My opinion is based on the belief that the Gophers will win enough games this year to get to a Bowl, which would keep Brew around for 2011. We need that to have the breakout year we've all been hoping for in 2011. By breakout year, I mean a major Bowl game. I am in no way predicting a bad year, just not as great as the following year can be. Who knows what will happen this year, but the potential for 2011 is very promising.

 

[Rosemountian]

I can see two possible scenarios.

1) Weber remains inconsistent. He makes me whine and complain the entire year with his erratic play and Pick-6's. He has 2-3 good games that prevent him from losing his job and the youth movement at QB from starting. Even with this poor QB play, the gophers escape with wins against MTSU, South Dakota, Northern Illinois. Against Illinois, Purdue, and Northwestern they take 2/3. They finish 5-7. If they beat one of the other 6 teams I have not mentioned (Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan State, Iowa, Wisconsin, USC) or if they go 3-0 in the 3 games I mentioned, they go to a bowl game. In the bowl game they win a close, low scoring game.

If Weber plays like he has the last 19 games and first 12 games of his career, the floor is 4 wins, and the ceiling is 7. Prediction:5


2) Weber pulls his head out and actually improves. He is able to do an impression of himself during the first 4 games of his sophomore year, and maintain it for the entire season. His senior leadership stands out. He is decisive with the ball, making a line that looked terrible last year look pretty decent despite the fact that their level of play is pretty similar in pass protection (it wasnt that bad in pass protection last year). He regains is running ability and scampers for a couple hundred (150-300) yards. His ability to get the ball out time for the first time in his career causes the defenses linebackers to back off a little bit, opening up the run. Though the run is still pretty average, it is vastly improved from the previous season. The WR's look great due to the consistent QB play. The defense is very athletic. Royston and Theret both play well, anchoring it with some experience. Collado and Carter are above average corners. The linebackers are the best and fastest MN has seen since the 60's. The DL is able to hold its own despite its youth.
Minnesota wins the opener by 10+, They make a good showing against USC but fall (similar to Cal last season), they beat down N. Illinois and South Dakota (not in that order). The win a close game against Northwestern at home. They are able to sweep Purdue, Illinois, and Michigan State on the road. Michigan State fans blame the refs. They are able to beat Penn State at home due to Penn State's poor QB play. Ohio State beats the gophers by 14. Wisconsin beats the gophers by 8 on the road. The winner of the Iowa-MN game gets second in the conference. They win a bowl game against an overrated SEC team.
If Weber plays like a 4 year starter 5th year senior 3rd year captain should. The floor is 7 wins. The Ceiling is 11. Prediction: 8

 

[NewBerlinBucky]

Coach Brewster will have an "outstanding effort" from his coaches and players. THe number of wins (3) won't be indicative of the progress this team has actually made.

 

[Sean Lumpkin]

Said the grandson of Ed Gein

 

[GhostofBronko]

1) Weber remains inconsistent.<br>2) Weber pulls his head out and actually improves.

If your premise is flawed, you conclusion will probably be flawed as well. Weber is a talented QB, but is only as good as his "supporting cast," most importantly the OL. Given time to throw, and/or good run blocking, even average WRs or RBs will suffice (I am not saying that the Gophers have "even average" WRs or RBs). There's a reason that the Gophers only averaged 100 YPG rushing the last two years, and it wasn't Weber's technique handing off the ball. Drop Decker from the passing stats and 2010 looks even more bleak. If you see a reason to expect dramatic improvement in this area this season, please let me know what hallucinogen you are taking.

 

[AhliBobwa]

3 posts in a row from PantherHawk! impressive.

Get a life light saber fanatic.

 

[Rosemountian]

If your premise is flawed, you conclusion will probably be flawed as well. Weber is a talented QB, but is only as good as his "supporting cast," most importantly the OL. Given time to throw, and/or good run blocking, even average WRs or RBs will suffice (I am not saying that the Gophers have "even average" WRs or RBs). There's a reason that the Gophers only averaged 100 YPG rushing the last two years, and it wasn't Weber's technique handing off the ball. Drop Decker from the passing stats and 2010 looks even more bleak. If you see a reason to expect dramatic improvement in this area this season, please let me know what hallucinogen you are taking.

Weber was a bigger problem than the O-line the last 6 games of last season. When Weber plays well (Michigan State) the team plays well. When Weber plays poorly (South Dakota State) the offense plays poorly. If you go back and watch the tape, the O-line play between the Michigan State game and South Dakota State game was similar quality.

The Biggest problems with the offense last year were:
1) Inconsistency at the QB position

2) Lack of a RB who who was a HR threat in the run game
3) Run Blocking

4) Pass Blocking

It is easy to look at sack totals and run totals and say O-line was the biggest problem. But if you know things about football and you actually watch the games carefully, you will see, while o-line play was a problem, it was far from the biggest problem. The Biggest problem last year was far and away Inconsistent QB play, with the next 2 problems being close. A distant 4th was pass blocking.

As much as people hate to admit it, QB is far and away the most important position on the field.

 

[howeda7]

I know I may take heat for this, but I just hope we don't have a 6 or 7-loss season. Obviously, as a Gopher fan, I'd love to see our team playing in Pasadena on New Year's day. Heck, I'd even welcome a chance to see a victory in the Insight Bowl to give us a winning season.

I'm just not sure that I have the patience to deal with a 5-7 or 6-7 (6-6 with another bowl loss) season. At least with a 3-9 season, I think the organization would make changes. I've never been one to advocate change solely for the sake of change, but I wasn't a big fan of the coaching hire in 2007, but decided to be supportive for at least 4 or 5 years. With another disappointing season, I think I'd be ready for a change.

A 5-7 or 6-7 (or probably even a 4-8) season would just put the progam in a state of limbo for another year.

I basically feel the same way. I either want 8-4 or better or a season that will prompt a change. 5-7 is about the worst possible scenerio as I think Brew hangs on for another year in that case, given the lame duck AD/Pres. That said, I can't actually bring myself to root for the Gophers to lose. The closest I've ever come is near the end of the SDSU game last year. That said, if they're 3-7 going into the Illinois game, the thought would at least enter ones mind. The record doesn't matter for the Iowa game of course.

 

[GophersInIowa]

Weber was a bigger problem than the O-line the last 6 games of last season. When Weber plays well (Michigan State) the team plays well. When Weber plays poorly (South Dakota State) the offense plays poorly. If you go back and watch the tape, the O-line play between the Michigan State game and South Dakota State game was similar quality.

The Biggest problems with the offense last year were:
1) Inconsistency at the QB position

2) Lack of a RB who who was a HR threat in the run game
3) Run Blocking

4) Pass Blocking

It is easy to look at sack totals and run totals and say O-line was the biggest problem. But if you know things about football and you actually watch the games carefully, you will see, while o-line play was a problem, it was far from the biggest problem. The Biggest problem last year was far and away Inconsistent QB play, with the next 2 problems being close. A distant 4th was pass blocking.

As much as people hate to admit it, QB is far and away the most important position on the field.

I don't know about that. It was a major factor, no doubt, but I don't think it was "far and away" the biggest problem. Not being able to establish a running game has been the biggest problem in my opinion over the past few years. Play action doesn't work as well without a running game. Pass blocking is easier when you have a solid run game.

Again, QB play has been a major factor, but I'd put the running game at the same level or even higher as to why our offense has struggled.

 

[Iceland12]

1. The biggest problem last year was an Offense designed for 3rd Year Pros not 18-22 year old College kids.

2. An Offense where a QB had to stand around and wait for receivers to get open and then take the sack when they didn't; as opposed to taking-off for what looked like positive yardage again and again. Conversely when Gray would come in, everybody in the stands and on the field would be waiting for him to fake a handoff and then run, or miss a receiver downfield. Why Weber wasn't encouraged or maybe wasn't allowed to head down field when no one was open is beyond me. It's not as if his accuracy in the pocket was going to "save" a lot of those plays. Maybe Weber wouldn't have looked so panicked at times if he was allowed to get out of the pocket and head downfield.

3. Then comes inconsistent play at the QB position and passing game. Weber missing open receivers, to many drops by those same receivers, nobody getting open and Gray turning the ball over to many times in comparison to his actual opportunities. Many people scoffed at reports on this site that Gray was turning the ball over to often in practice to be depended upon in games. The results on the field may have shown that those people were right.

 

[AhliBobwa]

Weber was a bigger problem than the O-line the last 6 games of last season. When Weber plays well (Michigan State) the team plays well. When Weber plays poorly (South Dakota State) the offense plays poorly. If you go back and watch the tape, the O-line play between the Michigan State game and South Dakota State game was similar quality.

The Biggest problems with the offense last year were:
1) Inconsistency at the QB position

2) Lack of a RB who who was a HR threat in the run game
3) Run Blocking

4) Pass Blocking

It is easy to look at sack totals and run totals and say O-line was the biggest problem. But if you know things about football and you actually watch the games carefully, you will see, while o-line play was a problem, it was far from the biggest problem. The Biggest problem last year was far and away Inconsistent QB play, with the next 2 problems being close. A distant 4th was pass blocking.

As much as people hate to admit it, QB is far and away the most important position on the field.

FALSE. People who watch football know that there were two overwhelming problems with the Gophers O last year. One was Fisch´s ridiculous offense, which as another poster noted was not designed for college players. Two, was the lack of running game. Last year the Defenses knew the Gophers couldn´t run the ball. They were able to commit more people to coverage, disguise looks better, and run more pass designed blitzes. This in turn meant that Weber got hit a ton, became unsure in his reads, and went into PTSD mode for the last part of the season.

After that came Weber´s consistency as the next biggest problem with the offense. But again, if the Gophers can run the ball those questions solve themselves.

Luckily, with Horton´s simplified scheme and a finally healthy O-line the Gophers are back to playing at game speed again. The WRs might actually know their routes this year as well.

Wasn´t this thread originally supposed to be funny?

 

[Rosemountian]

Weber had open receivers.
Weber couldn't find open receivers.
Weber could not get rid of the ball on time on 3 and 5 step drops, meaning that Linebackers didn't have a quick passing game threat. Making establishing a run game that much more difficult.
Weber throwing the ball away instead of taking sacks would have been huge in terms of setting the team up for success. Instead of 3rd and 8+ there would be more 3rd and 5-8.
If Weber had played like he did against Michigan State all year, the team would have been much better.
If Weber would have played like he did against Syracuse in the second half, the offense would not have been shut out this year.
The issue is, Weber came to play in really just 3 halves this year (5 if you want to include Cal).
If Weber plays like he did against Syracuse in the 2nd half, (good not great, so I think it is reasonable), this team will win 7+ games. If he is inconsistent, they have almost no chance of winning more than 7 considering how tough the schedule is.

 

[wait!what?]

I still do not recall seeing a complicated offense from the gophs last year. It seemed pretty standard but it is possible that they were required to learn many offensive plays and then selected the same 10. Did it look like a complicated offense to other viewers? I did miss the MSU game.

 

[GoAUpher]

I still do not recall seeing a complicated offense from the gophs last year. It seemed pretty standard but it is possible that they were required to learn many offensive plays and then selected the same 10. Did it look like a complicated offense to other viewers? I did miss the MSU game.

I doesn't have to look complex to be complex. Complex doesn't have to mean tricky formations or memorizing tons of plays. My take was always that the players were being asked to think too much about the proper decision for the plays they did run. For Weber, that might be the correct read, or the correct order of his reads. For receivers that might be choosing the correct route on the fly. I'm no guru on offensive structure, but the few SI/ESPN magazine articles I've read on the topic enlightened me to just how crazily complex NFL offensive schemes are because of the infinite variations they put into every single part of a play. As a result, even a reasonable number of plays could be turned into something sadistically complex. Sadly, it sounds like Fisch tried to keep a lot of that complexity in the offense the Gophers used.

 

[AhliBobwa]

I doesn't have to look complex to be complex. Complex doesn't have to mean tricky formations or memorizing tons of plays. My take was always that the players were being asked to think too much about the proper decision for the plays they did run. For Weber, that might be the correct read, or the correct order of his reads. For receivers that might be choosing the correct route on the fly. I'm no guru on offensive structure, but the few SI/ESPN magazine articles I've read on the topic enlightened me to just how crazily complex NFL offensive schemes are because of the infinite variations they put into every single part of a play. As a result, even a reasonable number of plays could be turned into something sadistically complex. Sadly, it sounds like Fisch tried to keep a lot of that complexity in the offense the Gophers used.

+1 Pro offenses are boring and homogenous. That´s the great paradox of the NFL. All the teams run exactly the same boring sets and plays, but because of the variations and endless adjustment of matchups the schemes are incredibly complex. For more on this I recommend the article below from Smartfootball.com (the best site for football strategy there is).

http://smartfootball.blogspot.com/2009/07/nfl-offense-what-is-it-why-does-every.html

´There's several reasons why I devote less space here to what NFL teams do than for college teams. Far and away the most significant reason though, is that, somewhat counterintuitively, NFL offenses are surprisingly bland and homogenized. Not entirely, but as a rule of thumb, 80% of what NFL teams do on offense (or defense, really too) is extremely straightforward to the point where every team runs the same stuff. And the list is not that long.´

Also, RoseMountain you are trying to turn calculus into pre-algebra by blaming every problem the offense experienced on Weber. I agree he was inconsistent, but to overlook the overarching problems that contributed to his inconsistency is simplistic and ignorant. I´ll have to assume you possess only a rudimentary grasp of the complexities of the game to post such drivel. When things go very wrong Weber does have a tendency to suffer from PTSD. Some of the blame for the offense last does rest with him. However, that doesn´t make him different from probably 90+% of college QBs.

Fixing the running game and simplifying the offense will help Weber have a solid season this year. I expect nothing less.

 

[Rosemountian]

Also, RoseMountain you are trying to turn calculus into pre-algebra by blaming every problem the offense experienced on Weber. I agree he was inconsistent, but to overlook the overarching problems that contributed to his inconsistency is simplistic and ignorant. I´ll have to assume you possess only a rudimentary grasp of the complexities of the game to post such drivel. When things go very wrong Weber does have a tendency to suffer from PTSD. Some of the blame for the offense last does rest with him. However, that doesn´t make him different from probably 90+% of college QBs.

Fixing the running game and simplifying the offense will help Weber have a solid season this year. I expect nothing less.

The majority of the blame goes to being inconsistent. That starts with Weber, as the QB, as the captain. The team has shown they can play with people when they are playing well. There are problems that contributed to his inconsistency. Getting beat up during his sophomore and jr years have hurt his pocket awareness and his scrambling. He seems lost often in the pocket, and while others may be to blame as to why he is playing as inconsistently as he has, it cannot be ignored that he is.

You can blame poor O-line play for him looking nervous and indecisive in the pocket, but the fact remains that he is nervous and indecisive in the pocket even as the protection improved. I don't really care why Weber plays the way he plays, I care about how he plays. It would be great if he could "get it back." But with Weber, what is "getting it back?" Throwing 20 int's his freshman year?

The facts of the case are these. Weber was an inconsistent QB his freshman year that struggled with turnovers. He showed some good potential as a freshman, but also showed signs of a limited future (such as inaccuracy on 'easy' throws).

His sophomore year he came out on fire and faded as the year went on. He made 2nd team all big ten because only 5 QB's played the entire season that year and his start was enough to hold off Sherer and Threet, and Juice WIlliams in 1/2 polls. As the year went on he began looking more nervous in the pocket and got back to his ways of throwing interceptions.

His junior year he had 1 good game against michigan State. he had a good 2nd half against Syracuse and a good 1st half against cal. Instead of scrambling, he circled backwards. Instead of throwing it away, he threw across his body and across the field.

You can blame it on an O-line, lack of a running game, complicated scheme, or you can blame it on his interceptions, his lack of accuracy in the quick pass game, his taking sacks, his circling back causing the loss of more yards. Whatever you want to blame it on, the fact remains, with consistent QB play, this team could have won more games despite the other problems. At some point you just have to decide that after 3 years of building towards .500 seasons, it may be time to try something else.

Hopefully I am proven wrong. But if the season goes the way I think it will, Weber will end up with a career winning percentage around .400 and will go down as probably the worst 4 year starting QB's in the history of the Big Ten.

 

[vinko bogataj]

I know last year I predicted 10 wins. This year I have a totally opposite feeling. This year we will have 10 losses or more. Our defense will be pathetic. Our running game will be horrible and our O-line will continue to struggle. Weber will be terrible and our recievers will underperform. The players will be rebellious and the coaches will not be able to control them. There will be a huge scandal that rocks the football program. Brewster will be fired and Maturi shortly after him. An earthquake will hit the Twin cities and ruin TCF stadium. The practice facility will decimated by a plane crash and the Bierman building will burn to the ground. Gopherhole and Gophersports will shut down due to a virus and the Gopher beat writers will catch Malaria. It will be the worst year we've had in Gopher football.

So you're saying the year won't be a total washout.

 

[nsmike]

I blame Weber's problems largely on the complexity of the offense, there's a reason, most quarterbacks take three years to adjust to the Pros. Last year, he had as many as six to eight checks on each play with the recievers having up to three options, depending on how they read the defense. A lot of Webers inexplicable throws into the ground, were caused by the recievers reading the defense differently, and making the wrong adjustment. Last year won't be a total washout because with fewer progressions players will make quick reads and be able to concentrate on execution. Weber migh not be All Conference but he wil be soilid.

 

[gophmeister]

I don't think we can blame one player or position for the problems on offense. Also, what happened last year does not preclude the offense from performing better in the future.

 

[hudson14]

Enough with Mason already!

I really do think this is the make or break year for Brewster. I do have my doubts if Brewster can take us to the next level. I would not have been dissappointed if they fired Brewster after last year. This team has got to show signs this year that we have a bright future ahead. What Brewster needs to do is the same thing that Mason failed to do and that was win big games. Brewster needs pull some upsets from time to time and win some trophy games. I don't expect us to win all our games against USC, Wisconsin, Iowa, Penn State, and OSU this year, but least win two of these games. Pull off some upsets. Four of those games are at home. I think this team really needs to show us that the future is bright for Minnesota football. I hope Brewster does well here, but this year we need to start winning some big games. It will be an interesting year and I hope we suprise a lot of people.

What is this Brewster needs to do what Mason "failed" to do? This has been rehashed 1000 times but don't revise history. Pull some upsets? At Penn State, at Ohio State, at Michigan. I think those qualify. He didn't win enough Trophy games, but at least we actually got to see and touch the Pig, the Axe and the Jug. Fact is he took the program to the next level based on the level where the program was residing when he came here, and that should be appreciated.
He didn't completely succeed here, but he didn't fail either on the counts you mentioned.
Love Brewster or loathe him, but it's long past the time to leave Mason out of the equation.

 

[Governor Sibley]

I'd prefer an outcome that gives us an opportunity to make a clear decision about our coach's future.

I'd almost prefer we win 2 games than 4-5 the ugly way. But I feel rotten saying that.

 

[SunGopher]

The complexity of last year's offense had to deal with Weber calling the offense line blocking scheme. Which for some reason I can't fathom why they would have the quarterback do that, let the line make their own calls and allow the QB to read the defense, adjust the play if needed and then run the play. If there is one thing that changes from last year to this year, I hope the line calls goes back to the offensive line.

 

[tato2001]

OK. Given what has happened, let's call a mulligan on this one. New preditcions anyone?

 

[Go Gophers Rah]

I know I may take heat for this, but I just hope we don't have a 6 or 7-loss season. Obviously, as a Gopher fan, I'd love to see our team playing in Pasadena on New Year's day. Heck, I'd even welcome a chance to see a victory in a lower-tier bowl to give us a winning season.

I'm just not sure that I have the patience to deal with a 5-7 or 6-7 (6-6 with another bowl loss) season. At least with a 3-9 season, I think the organization would make changes. I've never been one to advocate change solely for the sake of change, but I wasn't a big fan of the coaching hire in 2007, but decided to be supportive for at least 4 or 5 years. With another disappointing season, I think I'd be ready for a change.

A 5-7 or 6-7 (or probably even a 4-8) season would just put the progam in a state of limbo for another year.

I know this wasn't a "prediction", but I still stand by my premise. I'd rather see a complete train-wreck (actually, I think we all saw it) than to see Brewster hobble together a few wins at the end of the season and the admin deciding to give him another year because of the "progress" we made throughout the season.

 

[Go Gophers Rah]

I'd prefer an outcome that gives us an opportunity to make a clear decision about our coach's future.

I'd almost prefer we win 2 games than 4-5 the ugly way. But I feel rotten saying that.

Apparently others felt the same way before the season started.