Penultimate Field of 68 Projection Includes 6 Big Ten Teams; Gophers Have Chance to End Spartans' NCAA Tournament Streak

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SelectionSunday

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ROAD TO SELECTION SUNDAY, MN – We’ve reached our penultimate Field of 68 projection. The final projection will come in the wee hours of Selection Sunday morning (March 17).

Automatic qualifiers from multiple-bid conferences are denoted with an *. The automatic qualifier is the conference tournament champion or the highest remaining seed in the conference tournament.

WEEK #18 FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION (results through March 10)
America East (1): Vermont (103)

American (2): FAU (34), *USF (78)

ACC (4): *North Carolina (7), Duke (10), Clemson (26), Virginia (51)

ASUN (1): STETSON (209)

Atlantic 10 (2): Dayton (21), *Richmond (71)

Big East (6): *UConn (3), Creighton (11), Marquette (13), Villanova (33), Saint John’s (39), Seton Hall (62)

Big Sky (1): Montana (136)

Big South (1): LONGWOOD (160)

Big Ten (6): *Purdue (2), Illinois (15), Wisconsin (22), Michigan State (25), Nebraska (37), Northwestern (50)

Big XII (9): *Houston (1), Iowa State (9), BYU (12), Baylor (14), Kansas (18), Texas (24), Texas Tech (30), TCU (40), Oklahoma (43)

Big West (1): UC-Irvine (73)

Colonial (1): College of Charleston (100)

Conference USA (1): Sam Houston (153)

Horizon (1): Oakland (129)

Ivy (1): Princeton (48)

MAAC (1): Quinnipiac (168)

MAC (1): Toledo (128)

MEAC (1): Norfolk State (221)

Missouri Valley (1): DRAKE (47)

Mountain West (5): San Diego State (20), Boise State (23), Nevada (31), *Utah State (32), Colorado State (36)

NEC (1): Merrimack (200)

OVC (1): MOREHEAD STATE (106)

Pac 12 (3): *Arizona (4), Colorado (27), Washington State (45)

Patriot (1): Colgate (131)

SEC (7): *Tennessee (5), Auburn (6), Alabama (8), Kentucky (19), Florida (35), Texas A&M (46), South Carolina (49)

SoCon (1): Samford (74)

Southland (1): McNeese (58)

SWAC (1): Grambling (293)

Summit (1): South Dakota State (146)

Sun Belt (1): James Madison (55)

WCC (2): Gonzaga (16), *Saint Mary’s (17)

WAC (1): Grand Canyon (53)
___________________________
Last 4 In: Colorado (27), Saint John’s (39), Villanova (33), Virginia (51)

First 4 Out: Indiana State (29), Providence (64), Kansas State (70), Iowa (60)

Under Consideration (8): New Mexico (28), Wake Forest (38), Mississippi State (42), Pitt (44), Utah (52), Ohio State (54), Virginia Tech (56), Memphis (69)

Non-Power 6 At-Large Bids (7): Gonzaga (16), San Diego State (20), Dayton (21), Boise State (23), Nevada (31), FAU (34), Colorado State (36)

Moving In (10): Colorado, Drake, James Madison, Longwood, Merrimack, Montana, Morehead State, Stetson, Texas A&M, Toledo

Dropping Out (10): Akron, Appalachian State, Central Connecticut, Eastern Kentucky, Eastern Washington, High Point, Indiana State, Little Rock, Mississippi State, Utah

State of Minnesota in the Rankings
NET: Minnesota #86, St. Thomas #152
KenPom: Minnesota #75, St. Thomas #138
Haslametrics: Minnesota #86, St. Thomas #116
 

Here's the current "record vs. the field" for all bubble teams I'm even remotely considering for the Field of 68. My research seems to indicate I'm currently overvaluing Oklahoma and Saint John's, while undervaluing New Mexico & perhaps Ohio State.

Bubble teams are listed in order of number of wins vs. the field, then by percentage.

7 Wins
New Mexico (7-6) -- longshot

6 Wins
Ohio State (6-6) -- longshot
Kansas State (6-9) -- first 4 out

5 Wins
Colorado State (5-6) -- lock with 1 more win
Virginia Tech (5-6) -- longshot
Iowa (5-8) -- first 4 out
Providence (5-9) -- first 4 out

4 Wins
Memphis (4-3) -- longshot
Wake Forest (4-3) -- longshot
Utah (4-6) -- longshot
Villanova (4-8) -- last 4 in
Michigan State (4-9) -- lock with 1 more win
Mississippi State (4-9) -- squarely on the bubble
TCU (4-9) -- lock with 1 more win

3 Wins
Virginia (3-3) -- last 4 in
Colorado (3-4) -- last 4 in
Saint John's (3-8) -- last 4 in

2 Wins
Indiana State (2-4) -- first 4 out
Pitt (2-5) -- longshot
Oklahoma (2-10) -- lock with 1 more win
 
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Why no Indiana State with a Net of 29?
While they lose to #1 Drake in their Conference championship game.
 

RockChalk said:
Why no Indiana State with a Net of 29?
While they lose to #1 Drake in their Conference championship game.
Click to expand...
They can still make it. Gotta’ see how the bubble shakes out this week. I’ll have them in the hunt to the bitter end. Ditto for JMU if they lose tonight.
 

I like the move in you made for Colorado. They got healthy, and similar to some other teams that don't get a ton of attention, with the right match ups they could win a game or two. If they lose early in the Pac12 tourney, they are probably at risk again.

I also agree with others, Indiana State feels like a tourney team to me. Good guard play and a couple of good inside players. I have a feeling the committee will take them. They are not helped if some of these surprise/streaking teams keep winning eg. Ohio State.
 



Wow Michigan State is a lock if they beat us. We really have become MINDLESS computer followers.

I'm not shooting the messenger. They want us to be mindless in other areas...and they definitely want to pump it into sports too.
 

RockChalk said:
Why no Indiana State with a Net of 29?
While they lose to #1 Drake in their Conference championship game.
Click to expand...
They can still make it. Gotta’ see how the bubble shakes out this week. I’ll have them in the hunt to the bitter end. Ditto for JMU if they lose to ight
golfing18now said:
Hey @SelectionSunday -- have you historically compared how your preseason picks compare against your final projections?
Click to expand...
I check back at the end of the season. I don’t track it, but it’s usually in the high 30’s or low 40s.
 




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