P.J. Fleck has pored over Gophers’ 2021 game film in quest to improve offense

[Pompous Elitist]

We will never know the answer but there are some in here that assume that Fleck's philosophy is to drain the play clock to 1 second before snapping the ball and he was the one dictating that.

I don't believe that is the case. Fleck wants to control the play clock and play at a more deliberate pace by not rushing to snap the ball. Some teams huddle to do this, we line up and then get the play from the sideline but in either case the pace of the offense is designed to be slower which helps gain TOP.

You can be a heavy TOP/grind the clock team without doing what we did under Sanford. I highly suspect we are going to see a return to an offense that looks much more like what we saw in 2019 where they would take full advantage of the play clock but in a much more controlled and less frantic way.

Probably the devil is in the details? PJF insinuated as much, Morgan insinuated as much when Ciarocca was announced, in that KC is a consummate details guy. Deductively Sanford was not as much a details guy; offense was shambolic at too many junctures, players maybe were not as comfortable as we all witnessed. New leadership installed.

 

[Some guy]

I wonder if PJF believes calling runs on 80+% of first downs is smart strategy. Maybe it is, but most college teams in recent decades don’t do that even with dominant run games, suggesting at least to me there is some tactical edge gained by making defensive players and coaches guess wrong more often. MN 2021 yards per carry were actually still decent despite such a high run rate, probably a credit to a talented and large offensive line, and some good tight ends and backs.

We don’t call runs on 80% of first downs

 

[Pompous Elitist]

We don’t call runs on 80% of first downs

Thats what the stats said when I reviewed them a few month ago. What is your number?

Edit, ok you’re right it was 78%.

 

[Some guy]

Thats what the stats said when I reviewed them a few month ago. What is your number?

Edit, ok you’re right it was 78%.

Yeah. And that includes games that were not that close: Colorado, Indiana, Maryland, northwestern, West Virginia

I wonder what is was in the other 8 games. Lower than 78% I would bet.



Meanwhile against Iowa Tanner Morgan was 1/9 on first down passing.
Maybe we should’ve passed more to win LOL

Against Illinois Minnesota called passes on 40% of first down snaps. (If you include sacks (1) and scrambles (1) as passes instead of runs).

 

[Pompous Elitist]

Yeah. And that includes games that were not that close: Colorado, Indiana, Maryland, northwestern, West Virginia

I wonder what is was in the other 8 games. Lower than 78% I would bet.



Meanwhile against Iowa Tanner Morgan was 1/9 on first down passing.
Maybe we should’ve passed more to win LOL

Against Illinois Minnesota called passes on 40% of first down snaps. (If you include sacks (1) and scrambles (1) as passes instead of runs).

I’d I’m hearing you right it’s not smart to ever pass on first down. Fair enough, noted.

 

[Some guy]

I’d I’m hearing you right it’s not smart to ever pass on first down. Fair enough, noted.

No. What you’re hearing is me saying the myth that we never pass on first down is just simply not true.

I didn’t do the numbers for 2021. But in 2020


total
1st down 69% run 31% pass
2nd down 52% run 48% pass

in wins
1st down 80% run 20% pass
2nd down 56% run 44% pass

in losses
1st down 60% run 40% pass
2nd down 49% run 51% pass

In games where we score more than 30 points
1st down 74% run 26% pass
2nd down 56% run 44% pass

In games where we score 29 or fewer points
1st down 58% run 42% pass
2nd down 46% run 54% pass



Haven’t done 2021 because the team fired the OC so I no longer really think it tells me much to do that detailed of a breakdown





I wish we would pass more on first down and was kind of disappointed in the KC hire. Was hoping we would hire someone a little more innovative. But I liked KC a lot better than internal candidate as a hire.

 

[Pompous Elitist]

No. What you’re hearing is me saying the myth that we never pass on first down is just simply not true.

I didn’t do the numbers for 2021. But in 2020


total
1st down 69% run 31% pass
2nd down 52% run 48% pass

in wins
1st down 80% run 20% pass
2nd down 56% run 44% pass

in losses
1st down 60% run 40% pass
2nd down 49% run 51% pass

In games where we score more than 30 points
1st down 74% run 26% pass
2nd down 56% run 44% pass

In games where we score 29 or fewer points
1st down 58% run 42% pass
2nd down 46% run 54% pass



Haven’t done 2021 because the team fired the OC so I no longer really think it tells me much to do that detailed of a breakdown





I wish we would pass more on first down and was kind of disappointed in the KC hire. Was hoping we would hire someone a little more innovative. But I liked KC a lot better than internal candidate as a hire.

Well, I’m telling you. You can choose to believe it, or not. We all saw this results on the field.

 

[Some guy]

Well, I’m telling you. You can choose to believe it, or not. We all saw this results on the field.

What are you telling me? That we never pass on first down?
You literally gave me stats that we pass 22% of the time on first down including 5 games that were non competitive

 

[#2Gopher]

No. What you’re hearing is me saying the myth that we never pass on first down is just simply not true.

I didn’t do the numbers for 2021. But in 2020


total
1st down 69% run 31% pass
2nd down 52% run 48% pass

in wins
1st down 80% run 20% pass
2nd down 56% run 44% pass

in losses
1st down 60% run 40% pass
2nd down 49% run 51% pass

In games where we score more than 30 points
1st down 74% run 26% pass
2nd down 56% run 44% pass

In games where we score 29 or fewer points
1st down 58% run 42% pass
2nd down 46% run 54% pass



Haven’t done 2021 because the team fired the OC so I no longer really think it tells me much to do that detailed of a breakdown





I wish we would pass more on first down and was kind of disappointed in the KC hire. Was hoping we would hire someone a little more innovative. But I liked KC a lot better than internal candidate as a hire.

This is quite a break down.

 

[Pompous Elitist]

Meanwhile against Iowa Tanner Morgan was 1/9 on first down passing.
Maybe we should’ve passed more to win LOL

Against Illinois Minnesota called passes on 40% of first down snaps. (If you include sacks (1) and scrambles (1) as passes instead of runs).

Once again you force me to take time to once again prove you wrong.

Versus Illinois half of the passes on 1st down came in the last few minutes of the fourth quarter, on the last 2 desperation drives. In the rest of the game MN ran on first down over 70% of the time. Fine, if that’s your philosophy (I guess).

Should we do Bowling Green? Or just take my comment as an observation, accept it maybe wasn’t the best strategy, and move on?

 

[Some guy]

Once again you force me to take time to once again prove you wrong.

Versus Illinois half of the passes on 1st down came in the last few minutes of the fourth quarter, on the last 2 desperation drives. In the rest of the game MN ran on first down over 70% of the time. Fine, if that’s your philosophy (I guess).

Should we do Bowling Green? Or just take my comment as an observation, accept it maybe wasn’t the best strategy, and move on?

I’ve already said that. You aren’t even debating me. You’re debating something I haven’t said.
I wish we had hired a more pass heavy OC personally for the reasons you mention.

But us being slaves to running on first down is overstated (though it was a problem IMO)


PS
Vs Illinois
In the first half the gophers called pass on 4/13 first down plays which is 31%
In the second half
6/17 first down plays were called pass 35%



Not sure why you are so offended when I said you are wrong in saying we run 80% of the time on first downs. We don’t. By the way, when you counted to that 78% you counted sacks are runs not passes which throws off your number.

Not sure why you are offended when I say that number is even lower if you exclude the 5 non competitive games.



I would like to see it closer to 45% run 55% pass but that’s just me.

 

[short ornery norwegian]

I think most people understand that a lot of this is driven by situations.

In the 4th Qtr when the Gophers have a lead, under Fleck, they are going to run on almost every play. which skews the overall stats.

to do a complete analysis on play-calling, you would have to break down all the variables: down-and-distance, field position, score, time remaining, weather and field conditions, etc.

and - if they run on 1st down and Bucky goes for 6 or 7 yards, nobody is complaining. if they run on 1st down and get stuffed at the line of scrimmage for no gain, that is when people complain about "they always run on 1st down."

so, the ultimate test of play-calling is the results of the play. Nobody complains when a play works. they only complain when a play doesn't work.

in the end, if they run 100% of the plays and win, it's a win.

 

[Pompous Elitist]

I think most people understand that a lot of this is driven by situations.

In the 4th Qtr when the Gophers have a lead, under Fleck, they are going to run on almost every play. which skews the overall stats.

to do a complete analysis on play-calling, you would have to break down all the variables: down-and-distance, field position, score, time remaining, weather and field conditions, etc.

and - if they run on 1st down and Bucky goes for 6 or 7 yards, nobody is complaining. if they run on 1st down and get stuffed at the line of scrimmage for no gain, that is when people complain about "they always run on 1st down."

so, the ultimate test of play-calling is the results of the play. Nobody complains when a play works. they only complain when a play doesn't work.

in the end, if they run 100% of the plays and win, it's a win.

Fair points. The numbers and percentages favor more passing on first down. Thats said, fair to argue MN doesn’t have the personnel or skill to complete the forward pass. Chicken or egg: does passing more increase aptitude to pass. Chicken or egg: does passing more increase likelihood of attracting personnel that can complete forward passes.

 

[Pompous Elitist]

I’ve already said that. You aren’t even debating me. You’re debating something I haven’t said.
I wish we had hired a more pass heavy OC personally for the reasons you mention.

But us being slaves to running on first down is overstated (though it was a problem IMO)


PS
Vs Illinois
In the first half the gophers called pass on 4/13 first down plays which is 31%
In the second half
6/17 first down plays were called pass 35%



Not sure why you are so offended when I said you are wrong in saying we run 80% of the time on first downs. We don’t. By the way, when you counted to that 78% you counted sacks are runs not passes which throws off your number.

Not sure why you are offended when I say that number is even lower if you exclude the 5 non competitive games.



I would like to see it closer to 45% run 55% pass but that’s just me.

Every other team counts run/pass stats the same way. MN was an outlier under Sanford and not in a good way.

This is another in a long line of pointless arguments where I’m not even sure you are certain about what you are arguing, or move the goalpost.

I’ve already allowed 78% is not quite the same as 80%.

 

[Some guy]

Every other team counts run/pass stats the same way. MN was an outlier under Sanford and not in a good way.

This is another in a long line of pointless arguments where I’m not even sure you are certain about what you are arguing, or move the goalpost.

I’ve already allowed 78% is not quite the same as 80%.

I’m arguing that we don’t Call runs on 80% of first downs.

I’m arguing that if you eliminate the games that aren’t that competitive the number is even lower.

 

[Pompous Elitist]

I’m arguing that we don’t Call runs on 80% of first downs.

I’m arguing that if you eliminate the games that aren’t that competitive the number is even lower.

OK

Can we move on

 

[Some guy]

OK

Can we move on

Yeah?

 

[Gophers_4life]

I've said this to friends before. If you really listen to what Fleck says, he's really transparent about the team outside of off the field and injury items.

What is a good example of this, in your opinion?

 

[A_Slab_of_Bacon]

That difference between the 2019 and 2021 Gophers editions is very evident. They didn't deliberately milk the clock down to the very last second in 2019. The flow and execution of the TOP flowed more efficiently.

Man I remember even in 2019 folks uncomfortable with winding the clock down….

 

[hungan1]

Man I remember even in 2019 folks uncomfortable with winding the clock down….

I was holding my breath before each play. It was surreal to think about the Gophers were 8-0 at one point. We were thinking Minnesotan.

 

[Wally]

Has Morgan learned much about reading defenses while looking at the sideline then running back and forth behind his line? Hard to learn to read a defense when you have no time to even look out over the field. This, to me, would be a glaring deficiency in the poorly executed strategy to use all of the play clock

Great point

 

[hungan1]

Yeah. And that includes games that were not that close: Colorado, Indiana, Maryland, northwestern, West Virginia

I wonder what is was in the other 8 games. Lower than 78% I would bet.



Meanwhile against Iowa Tanner Morgan was 1/9 on first down passing.
Maybe we should’ve passed more to win LOL

Against Illinois Minnesota called passes on 40% of first down snaps. (If you include sacks (1) and scrambles (1) as passes instead of runs).

Whatever game-planning they have had against Iowa did not work the last seven seasons:

11/13/2021 At Iowa L 22-27
11/13/2020 Home L 7-35
11/16/2019 At Iowa L19-23
10/06/2018 Home L31-48
10/28/2017 At Iowa L 10-17
10/08/2016 Home L7-14
11/14/2015 At Iowa L35-40

PJ Fleck has never defeated Iowa since he became head coach.

I think there should be high-priority game planning involved. The road to the Big Ten West goes through Iowa.

It is time to put lipstick on the Hogeyes.

 

[Some guy]

Whatever game-planning they have had against Iowa did not work the last seven seasons:

11/13/2021 At Iowa L 22-27
11/13/2020 Home L 7-35
11/16/2019 At Iowa L19-23
10/06/2018 Home L31-48
10/28/2017 At Iowa L 10-17
10/08/2016 Home L7-14
11/14/2015 At Iowa L35-40

PJ Fleck has never defeated Iowa since he became head coach.

I think there should be high priority game planning involved The road to the Big Ten West title goes through Iowa.

It is time to put lipstick on the Hogeyes.

Yeah. We should run more on first down against them. We have come out throwing and not been successful the last two years.

 

[hungan1]

Yeah. We should run more on first down against them. We have come out throwing and not been successful the last two years.

They got away from what was their bread and butter.

 

[60's Guy]

there is something to be said for having a sense of humor, and for being willing to poke fun at yourself.

On the "watching the film" thing - my question would be "what did you see on the film and how do you plan to correct it?"

My question would be...umm excuse me sir...you mean you listened to the radio broadcasts over and over again, is that correct? It's my understanding you had your eyes replaced?

 

[Some guy]

They got away from what was their bread and butter.

The real issue against Iowa the last 3 years is the defense didn’t really come to play until the mid 2nd quarter. Dug the team a hole against a team that plays great while ahead.

 

[Unregistered User]

Great point

Disagree. The job is not to "read the defense", the job is to get the right play and "read the keys" i.e. if it is an RPO, what is "my" key to the proper decision.

Maybe debating semantics, but I see a difference.

 

[Gophers_4life]

Whatever game-planning they have had against Iowa did not work the last seven seasons:

11/13/2021 At Iowa L 22-27
11/13/2020 Home L 7-35
11/16/2019 At Iowa L19-23
10/06/2018 Home L31-48
10/28/2017 At Iowa L 10-17
10/08/2016 Home L7-14
11/14/2015 At Iowa L35-40

PJ Fleck has never defeated Iowa since he became head coach.

I think there should be high-priority game planning involved. The road to the Big Ten West goes through Iowa.

It is time to put lipstick on the Hogeyes.

I think we (finally) had it all dialed-in last year.

We lost the game on literally three plays on defense: twice a true freshman CB got turned around by a very talented and fast WR (and he played reasonably well during the game, is what it is, growing pains), and the third was a vet who just plain missed badly on a tackle.

 

[short ornery norwegian]

On the earlier run-pass % argument, just one quibble.

In college FB, a QB sack is counted against a team's rushing yardage.

so, a team could call a passing play on 1st down, but if the play results in a sack, it goes down as lost rushing yardage.

it was still called as a pass play in the huddle - and that, I believe, was the subject of the discussion - how often the Gophers call a running play vs a pass on 1st down.