Cleveland guy breaks down his ballot:
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COLUMBUS, Ohio — Are we headed for another
Ohio State football vs. Alabama showdown for the national championship?
The last one did not go well for the Buckeyes, obviously. Barring another pandemic-decimated roster, this squad looks better prepared to face off with what should again be an outrageously talented team in Tuscaloosa.
Expect a strong consensus as to the identity of the top three teams in college football when the
preseason Associated Press Top 25 poll releases today at noon. The top three choices were easy for me, as I slotted Ohio State at No. 2 between Alabama and Georgia.
A few things to keep in mind as you see other ballots emerge today, and then the consensus preseason poll:
• We’re going to be very wrong about some of these votes.
My preseason ballot last season put too much faith in Clemson quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei, not quite enough in a Georgia defense we knew would be great and none in Michigan.
• The good news is, all voters should ignore this ballot as soon as they cast it. Everything from here on in will be based, as much as possible, on the resume a team actually compiles. (That obviously is more true with every succeeding week.)
• When you see a voter who has a team ranked very differently than other voters do, don’t freak out. That’s why they ask 60-some-odd of us to do this. It’s a consensus. We’re not trying to hit the bullseye of conventional wisdom. We create the bullseye with our varying opinions.
With that, here’s what I came up with to get things started, with brief explanations of why I like those teams:
NATHAN BAIRD’S PRESEASON AP TOP 25 BALLOT
1. Alabama
• Arguably the best offensive and defensive player in the country. Oh, and unquestionably the best coach.
2. Ohio State
• Buying into the defense improving at least enough to stop tripping up the offense. Plus, what if C.J. Stroud is even better?
3. Georgia
• Jalen Carter-led defense will still be strong, and the offense could even be improved.
4. Clemson
• This will be the best defensive line in the country, and maybe the best defense overall.
5. Oklahoma
• Will Venables can solve the defense, but needs a big transition to Power 5 from QB Dillon Gabriel.
6. Utah
• Gave OSU everything it wanted in the Rose Bowl and QB Cameron Rising is back.
7. Notre Dame
• We’ll see how real Marcus Freeman and the Fighting Irish are on opening night at OSU.
8. Penn State
• Probably my biggest reach, but I like the defense from the front (PJ Mustipher) to the back (Jerry Porter Jr., Ji’Ayir Brown).
9. Michigan
• The losses on defense will be hard to overcome, but the offensive talent is intriguing, especially Ronnie Bell, Donovan Edwards, Blake Corum and J.J. McCarthy.
10. Wisconsin
• If Graham Mertz is merely pretty good, Braelon Allen and this defense can take care of a lot.
11. Texas A&M
• if Jimbo Fisher picks the right quarterback, the Aggies could finally break through.
12. Miami
• New coach Mario Cristobal doesn’t need to rebuild with QB Tyler Van Dyke already in hand.
13. Oregon
• Saw what Noah Sewell and the Ducks could do up close last season.
14. Michigan State
• Mel Tucker came up big with transfers last year and could do it again.
15. North Carolina State
• Would not be a shock if QB Devin Leary and 17 returning starters upended the ACC.
16. Cincinnati
• Should still be among the best Group of Five, but replicating last year is a long shot.
17. Texas
• Former Buckeye Quinn Ewers and Hudson Card still battling to start at QB, but Bijan Robinson is a sure thing.
18. Pitt
• Panthers lost some big names, but return their starting nucleus and added former USC QB Kedon Slovis.
19. Tennessee
• Volunteers aren’t completely clear of the NCAA cloud, but a bunch of talent is back from coach Josh Heupel’s strong first season.
20. BYU
• ESPN’s Bill Connelly says 88% of the production returns, but this schedule is a meat grinder.
21. Ole Miss
• Trying for first back-to-back 10-win seasons since 1959-60.
22. USC
• If all of this comes together quickly — Lincoln Riley, Caleb Williams, Jordan Addison and Travis Dye — this pick will be way too low.
23. North Carolina
• ESPN’s Preseason SP+ ranks the Tar Heels 11th in the nation on offense.
24. Baylor
• Strong offensive line returns, but defense needs to make some key replacements.
25. Minnesota
• Mohamed Ibrahim is back from that torn ACL, and the Gophers are 20-6 in the last two non-pandemic seasons.
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