Minnesota @ Iowa 2021 - Media Predictions

I'm also really glad this one is on the road. I know this is Kinnick but Fleck's teams play well on the road, and coming off a loss like last week, getting out of town, away from the local negativity can't be a bad thing.

Initial media predictions look about like I thought they would. Most will pick Iowa but most will also have a low scoring game with a small victory margin. Makes total sense.
The only boos will be as the Gophers take the field...hopefully the start of TCF South.
 

Why aren't we forfeiting this game? It is clear we have no chance and our fans are thinking the same. Save the travel money and hassle of going down there to lose against a superior team.
 


Some predictions from SB Nation sites

Black Shoe Diaries (Penn State) has Minnesota winning 27-20
I selfishly want Minnesota to win because a) Iowa should lose all the games, and b) I want Paul Bunyan’s Axe to be the deciding factor in the West. So ya know what, let’s go with a Gopher dub.

Hammer and Rails (Purdue) has Iowa winning 20-17
Here is an excellent chance to help Purdue. We want Iowa to win, and then for Minnesota to beat Wisconsin. Ideally that happens, while Indiana also beats Minnesota and Wisconsin gets upset by a Nebraska team that finally puts it all together. That opens the door fully for Purdue, as we would only need to beat Northwestern and Indiana to win the west. Let’s go, OMHR.

Blake Ruane of The Daily Gopher (Minnesota) has Iowa winning 21-0
Nothing about this matchup bodes well for the Gophers. Iowa has one of the best defenses in the country, ranking eighth in rushing defense (98.6 rushing yards allowed per game), 38th in passing defense (205.9 passing yards allowed per game), and fifth in scoring defense (15.7 points allowed per game).

Minnesota’s one-dimensional offense under offensive coordinator Mike Sanford Jr. has consisted of running the ball and then breaking out into a cold sweat whenever the ground game fails to get rolling. So you know Iowa is going to stack the box to stop the run and dare quarterback Tanner Morgan to try his luck with their ball-hawking secondary.

P.J. Fleck is winless against the Hawkeyes, and Minnesota hasn’t won in Iowa City since 1999. I don’t see either of those things changing on Saturday.
 
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The only boos will be as the Gophers take the field...hopefully the start of TCF South.

There will be plenty of boos. It's a nasty home crowd. Any time a call goes against Iowa, the boos will fill the place. If we have injury time outs because of their cheap shot defense, their fans will boo us for trying to stall their momentum, just like they did against Penn State.
 


Some predictions from SB Nation sites

Black Shoe Diaries (Penn State) has Minnesota winning 27-20
I selfishly want Minnesota to win because a) Iowa should lose all the games, and b) I want Paul Bunyan’s Axe to be the deciding factor in the West. So ya know what, let’s go with a Gopher dub.

Hammer and Rails (Purdue) has Iowa winning 20-17
Here is an excellent chance to help Purdue. We want Iowa to win, and then for Minnesota to beat Wisconsin. Ideally that happens, while Indiana also beats Minnesota and Wisconsin gets upset by a Nebraska team that finally puts it all together. That opens the door fully for Purdue, as we would only need to beat Northwestern and Indiana to win the west. Let’s go, OMHR.

Blake Ruane of The Daily Gopher (Minnesota) has Iowa winning 21-0
Nothing about this matchup bodes well for the Gophers. Iowa has one of the best defenses in the country, ranking eighth in rushing defense (98.6 rushing yards allowed per game), 38th in passing defense (205.9 passing yards allowed per game), and fifth in scoring defense (15.7 points allowed per game).

Minnesota’s one-dimensional offense under offensive coordinator Mike Sanford Jr. has consisted of running the ball and then breaking out into a cold sweat whenever the ground game fails to get rolling. So you know Iowa is going to stack the box to stop the run and dare quarterback Tanner Morgan to try his luck with their ball-hawking secondary.

P.J. Fleck is winless against the Hawkeyes, and Minnesota hasn’t won in Iowa City since 1999. I don’t see either of those things changing on Saturday.
Gophers are dinks? (Warning: Turn volume down...)
 









Statically one of best kickers in the country over four years.
This year he's been statistically one of the worst ten kickers in all of the FBS. I'm not saying he's always that bad, just that I don't have a ton of confidence in him making a game winning field goal right now.
 



The Des Moinse Register has Iowa winning 28-17
Minnesota wins if the Gophers can ride motivation off last week's embarrassing loss and carry confidence in knowing they're 3-0 on the road this season (Colorado, Purdue and Northwestern). That Purdue win is looking better and better, and Minnesota shut out the Boilermakers, 10-0, in the second half. Morgan has the ability to get hot. A persistent spirit combined with the aforementioned up-front play can deliver Minnesota's first win at Kinnick Stadium since 1999.

Iowa wins if the Hawkeyes capitalize on their three biggest advantages — more playmakers on offense, led by Tyler Goodson; their ball-hawking secondary, where Riley Moss returns after a three-game absence; and the home crowd, which should be revved up for its first Kinnick game in a month.

Prediction: Padilla throws his first two career touchdown passes, and the defense scores a touchdown for the first time since Week 2.


Gopher Illustrated (247 Sports) has Iowa winning 20-16
We all know the stats. Minnesota hasn't won in Iowa City since 1999, the Gophers have lost six straight to Iowa and PJ Fleck hasn't beaten Kirk Ferentz in their four-game history.

I can absolutely spin you a tale that Fleck gets his first victory in his Minnesota tenure. The Gophers get out to a quick lead and put Iowa's offense in a more "pass happy" situation, which could result in turnovers with a quarterback in his first career start. And Fleck/Sanford can then sit on the ball for a low-scoring victory.

I can also see Iowa doing to Minnesota what they've done so frequently in recent memory. The Hawkeyes get out to an early lead, sit on the ball on offense, pin their ears back on defense and then coast to another home victory.

I think this game falls somewhere in between, but until we see more from Minnesota's passing game, it's tough to think the streak finally ends this year.


Here are the predictions from other staff at The Daily Gopher (SB Nation)
GoAUpher has Iowa winning 17-10: So much bad offensive football will be played.

GopherGuy05 is predicting a 23-10 Iowa victory: Iowa’s offense is awful but if they get a couple of short fields off of turnovers...well that’s all they probably will need.

GopherNation has Minnesota winning 23-13: We love to assume the bad losses are what defines this team. But this team is erratic and at Iowa is when they have one of their good games.

Hipster is predicting a 6-0 Minnesota win: In 114 meetings between these two programs, 6 points is the lowest combined score. back in 1918 Iowa won 6-0, but I cant predict a Hawkeye win so I’m flipping the historic score and giving the Gophers the W. NOTE: Hipster’s bit is that he picks using scores from previous matchups.

Mowe0018 has Iowa winning 13-9: This is how it goes: Iowa has a quantum leap in offensive creativity for their first two drives (a la 2019). They score two touchdowns (missed extra point) and then proceed to sit on that lead while the Gopher offense sputters. Fleck has never beaten Iowa and that trend will continue because outside of 2018 Wisconsin and 2019 Penn State, Fleck doesn’t win big conference games. I, like IowaGopher, will not be taking questions at this time.

White Speed Receiver is taking Iowa, 5-4: *no rationale given*

Zips of Akron has Minnesota winning 17-13: Iowa is the most overrated team in the country and I’m still salty that they were ranked #2. Separately, there was so much angst after the Illinois loss that I don’t see how Fleck and the seniors don’t make it their life’s mission to win this game.
 

Omaha World Herald has Iowa winning the matchup 21-17
On the field, the Iowa-Minnesota game smacks of a low-scoring affair. The Gophers have the better quarterback, Tanner Morgan, who’s also thrown more interceptions (7) than touchdowns (6) in 2021.

Iowa has the better and healthier skill on offense, and the more opportunistic defense, but the quarterback/offensive line combination leaves a lot to be desired, especially as Iowa backup Alex Padilla seems poised for his first start. The Hawkeyes get home-field advantage. They’re better in special teams.

As a 5½-point favorite on a 37 over/under spread, Iowa’s staring down the barrel of a old-school win that Ferentz won’t discard for anything. Floyd stays in Iowa City for another year.
 

I have a bad feeling this is going to be ugly.
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This year he's been statistically one of the worst ten kickers in all of the FBS. I'm not saying he's always that bad, just that I don't have a ton of confidence in him making a game winning field goal right now.
Cite these statistics please piglover troll!
 


Whoa! The data I looked at have him at 10-17 on field goals this season. I would love nothing more than a gopher win! I just don’t want to have to sweat out a last second kick is all.
Keep in mind that 5 of his 7 misses are from 40+! Before transferring to the U, he only attempted 2 from 50+(0-2)! He's 9 for 13 from inside 50 yards! He's 69% when you take out the long range attempts!

I doubt that is near the bottom of FBS. He's also been very accurate at PATs at 27-29!

His 57 pts rank T65!
 

This year he's been statistically one of the worst ten kickers in all of the FBS. I'm not saying he's always that bad, just that I don't have a ton of confidence in him making a game winning field goal right now.
Fleck and his staff have to be one of the worst in the country at managing and developing kickers.
 


Fleck and his staff have to be one of the worst in the country at managing and developing kickers.

Yeah, the only good one he's had was inherited from the previous coaching staff. I'm really surprised by Matthew Trickett's troubles this year given how good he was two years ago at Kent State. Prior to the season, he was one of the players that I was least concerned about.

Maybe he'll get a chance to win one for us today and delivers.
 

I posted a thread about this after the Bowling Green loss, too. Here's an updated version of that.

2017:
  • After losing to Maryland, the Gophers lost to Purdue, 17-31
  • After losing to Purdue, the Gophers lost to No. 21 Michigan State, 27-30.
  • After losing to Michigan State, the Gophers WON Vs. Illinois, 24-17
  • After losing to Iowa, the Gophers lost at Michigan, 10-33.
  • After losing to Northwestern, the Gophers lost to No. 5 Wisconsin, 0-31.
2018:
  • After losing to Maryland, the Gophers lost to Iowa, 31-48
  • After losing to Iowa, the Gophers lost at No. 3 Ohio State, 14-30
  • After losing to Ohio State, the Gophers lost to Nebraska, 28-53
  • After losing to Nebraska, the Gophers WON Vs. Indiana, 38-31.
  • After losing to Illinois, the Gophers WON Vs. Purdue, 41-10.
  • After losing to Northwestern, the Gophers WON at Wisconsin, 37-15.
2019
  • After losing to No. 20 Iowa, the Gophers WON at Northwestern, 38-22.
  • After losing to No. 12 Wisconsin, the Gophers WON Vs. No. 12 Auburn, 31-24.
2020
  • After losing to Michigan, the Gophers lost to Maryland, 44-45 in OT
  • After Losing to Maryland, the Gophers WON at Illinois, 41-14.
  • After losing to Iowa, the Gophers WON Vs. Purdue, 34-31.
2021
  • After losing to No. 4 Ohio State, the Gophers WON Vs. Miami OH, 31-26
  • After losing to Bowling Green, the Gophers WON at Purdue, 20-13
Based on those stats it seems good showings after a loss started after Rob Smith was fired and replaced with Joe Rossi.
 




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