March 12: 5 Available Bids (Florida is in)

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SelectionSunday

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March 12 (3:50 p.m.): 6 Available Bids (Va Tech to the bubble)

Updated Friday at about 9:25 p.m.

Changes: Georgia Tech becomes a lock with its win over Maryland. Florida goes back to the bubble with its loss to Mississippi State.

There's been some reshuffling of the deck, so to speak, but I still have 13 teams battling for the final 6 at-large spots.

Gophers still must win tonight, and they are not a lock if they do. However, assuming the bubble doesn't shrink by 3-4 teams in the next couple days, I'd put their chances at slightly greater than 50% if they knock off Sparty.

Obviously, there are still a bundle of potential bid-stealers. At the top of the list are Cal, Utah State and UTEP. I think all 3 of those could/would steal a bid if they fail to win their conference tournament. Other than getting a Gopher victory tonight, the next most important thing to cheer for is that the above 3 mentioned teams win their tourneys.

Teams in bold ALL CAPS have earned automatic bids. RPI (courtesy of CollegeRPI.com) is listed in parentheses.

Automatics (31)
1. Kansas (1)
2. Duke (2)
3. Kentucky (3)
4. West Virginia (4)
5. New Mexico (8)
6. BUTLER (13)
7. Temple (14)
8. NORTHERN IOWA (18)
9. Cal (20)
10. Ohio State (26)
11. OLD DOMINION (27)
12. Utah State (30)
13. SIENA (32)
14. ST. MARY'S (36)
15. UTEP (38)
16. CORNELL (48)
17. OAKLAND (54)
18. MURRAY STATE (57)
19. WOFFORD (71)
20. Sam Houston State (76)
21. Akron (91)
22. MONTANA (95)
23. NORTH TEXAS (101)
24. UCSB (102)
25. Morgan State (105)
26. EAST TENNESSEE STATE (123)
27. Vermont (129)
28. ROBERT MORRIS (130)
29. LEHIGH (156)
30. WINTHROP (162)
31. Arkansas-Pine Bluff (191)

Locks (28)
1. Syracuse (5)
2. Kansas State (6)
3. Baylor (7)
4. Georgetown (9)
5. Villanova (10)
6. Purdue (11)
7. Texas A&M (12)
8. Pitt (15)
9. Wisconsin (16)
10. Tennessee (17)
11. Maryland (19)
12. Xavier (21)
13. Vanderbilt (22)
14. BYU (23)
15. Michigan State (24)
16. Richmond (25)
17. Texas (28)
18. Oklahoma State (29)
19. Clemson (33)
20. Florida State (34)
21. Gonzaga (35)
22. Wake Forest (37)
23. Louisville (39)
24. Georgia Tech (40)
25. Missouri (43)
26. Marquette (45)
27. Notre Dame (46)
28. UNLV (49)

On the Bubble (13 for 6 available bids)
1. San Diego State (31) -- vs. New Mexico, 8 p.m. (CBS College Sports)
2. Rhode Island (41) -- beat Saint Louis
3. Florida (51) -- season complete
4. Washington (52) -- vs. Stanford, 10:30 p.m. (FSN)
5. Virginia Tech (53) -- season complete
6. Memphis (55) -- season complete
7. Ole Miss (56) -- season complete
8. William & Mary (58) -- season complete
9. Seton Hall (59) -- season complete
10. Mississippi State (68) -- beat Florida
11. South Florida (70) -- season complete
12. GOPHERS (73) -- vs. Michigan State, 7:55 p.m. (BTN)
13. Illinois (78) -- beat Wisconsin

GOPHERS CHECKLIST
If you're a Gopher fan, root for these things to happen today --

(1) Miami Florida over Virginia Tech (check)
(2) Saint Louis over Rhode Island (nope)
(3) Wisconsin over Illinois (nope)
(4) Tennessee over Ole Miss (check)
(5) UTEP over Tulsa (check)
(6) Morgan State over Hampton (check)
(7) Xavier over Dayton (check)
(8) Maryland over Georgia Tech (nope)
(9) Florida over Mississippi State (nope)
(10) GOPHERS over Sparty, 7:55 p.m. (games above & below are moot if Gophers lose)
(11) Cal over UCLA, 8 p.m. (Golden Bears likely at-large if they don't win Pac 10)
(12) New Mexico over San Diego State, 8 p.m.
(13) Utah State over Louisiana Tech, 8 p.m. (Aggies possible at-large if they don't win WAC)
(14) Stanford over Washington, 10:30 p.m.
 

Thanks SS for all your efforts and postings. You must be a mathematician in this life or a previous one. I always read your posts. Go Gophers!
 


SS - I notice that our RPI improved by 3 spots since the day before. Do you think beating a marginal team like Penn State was the main reason for the improvement or did it have more to do with the fact that some of our opponents like Miami, Texas A&M, SF Austin and Morgan State won last night?
 

all 14 of the possibilities at the bottom are going to happen...I'm convinced, It's March and strange things happen. We're due a few breaks too.
 



Gophers win tonight and the RPI gets to 68 or so? Still not good enough...Must win at least 2 more imo....I think GA Tech and Washington are in.
 

". ... or did it have more to do with the fact that some of our opponents like Miami, Texas A&M, SF Austin and Morgan State won last night?"

I'd say it had more to do with our opponents having a good night.
 

"I think GA Tech and Washington are in."

Moses, I'm pretty much in line with you on Georgia Tech. They're one of my stronger bubble teams, but I'm not quite ready to call them a lock. In all likelihood, they're going to get in.

Out of curioisity, why do you think Washington is a lock at this point? I think the Gophers and Washington are very similar, but the one thing U-Dub has that the Gophers don't is a win over Texas A&M (U-Dub got to play them in Seattle). I'm not worried about the Gophers' RPI. Arizona got in last year at #62. A win over Michigan State and the Gophers' RPI (mid-60's, maybe?) will be in line with the lion's share of the other bubble squads.
 



Your bubble/available bid updates are clearly required reading around here. Next year I would like to see us more concerned with seeding than bubble watching. Great job. Let's beat MSU.
 

I hear ya' Sal. Someday I hope the Gopher program gets to the point where every year the bubble watch nary has a mention of the Gophers. Something along the lines of where the question is, "Where are we goin'?" instead of "Are we gonna' make it"?
 

Wow, thanks for the analysis. It nice having you around here so I don't need to put any work in myself seeing where we're at, haha.
 

sal said:
Your bubble/available bid updates are clearly required reading around here. Next year I would like to see us more concerned with seeding than bubble watching. Great job. Let's beat MSU.
Click to expand...

I thought last year was the last time we were going to have to sweat out a selection sunday for a few years...sigh.

SS- I'll add my thanks for excellent work, not just on the bubble/bracket stuff, but for providing great info and insight throughout the season!
 



Daily must read this time of year.

Thanks SS
 

Agreed. Thank you Selection Sunday... I love reading your posts... very informative... thanks again!
 

With Virginia Tech's loss. ...

I'm moving the Hokies from "lock" status to the bubble. Also, Saint Louis' loss means they are now toast.

You will hear no coach whine/beg/plead more in the next couple days than Virginia Tech's Seth Greenberg.

I'll update the above periodically throughout the day.
 

Agreed SS, nobody does more whining about being on the bubble than Greenberg. Maybe if he would schedule someone who even has a remote pulse in their non-conference schedule, they wouldn't be on the bubble with a good record.
 

Greenberg

Touche. The funny thing is, Greenberg is a very personable, likable & engaging guy when you hear him on TV/radio. He just doesn't understand that piling up a bunch of wins against nobodies fails to impress the Selection Committee. I still think his team's likely going to get in -- the win over Seton Hall will probably get them over the edge -- but if they don't make it it'll be pretty obvious why (think Penn State last season).
 

Thank You

Thank You Selection Sunday for your excellent work on this.

It is a big help and great reading.

:clap::clap::clap:
 

SelectionSunday said:
Thanks CBBF, I appreciate it. Nice to know someone looks at it.
Click to expand...

Everybody but Art looks at it. Art is very interested in who would be on the bubble if there were 128 teams, however. Thanks for your work SS. Win tonight and things get serious.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Thanks CBBF, I appreciate it. Nice to know someone looks at it.
Click to expand...

I for one trust your analysis better than most (if not all) sports commentators. You really know what you're talking about. And I'm being 100% serious here.
 

"Win tonight and things get serious."

My thoughts exactly, BGA. This all means nothing (in terms of the Gophers) if the Gophers lose tonight.
 




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