Jan. 27 Field of 68 Projection: Gophers Remain Among First 8 Out

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SelectionSunday

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The Gophers (11-9, 5-5, #43 NET) are still right there in the mix for a NCAA bid despite yesterday's humbling loss to Michigan State. Gophers have a single game this week (Thursday @ Big Ten co-leader Illinois), and a win there certainly would get them into the field next week.

That said, their main priority right now is to make sure they win at least 1 of their next 2 (also Feb. 5 vs. Wisconsin at The Barn). The Illinois game feels like "house money" if they win, but the Gophers absolutely can not slip up at home vs. an eminently beatable Badgers squad.

We have 8 new teams moving into the field, 3 of those at-larges, Purdue, Rhode Island, and Virginia Tech. They replace DePaul, Richmond, and Texas Tech.

FIELD OF 68 (1/27/20) -- * denotes conference leader/best NET ranking in multiple-bid conference
America East (1): Vermont (97)

American (3): Wichita State (31), *Houston (33), Memphis (51)

ACC (6): Duke (6), *Louisville (11), Florida State (15), NC State (50), Virginia Tech (52), Virginia (59)

ASUN (1): Liberty (73)

Atlantic 10 (2): *Dayton (5), Rhode Island (47)

Big East (5): Butler (9), *Seton Hall (12), Villanova (14), Creighton (24), Marquette (26)

Big Sky (1): Montana (140)

Big South (1): Winthrop (131)

Big Ten (11): *Michigan State (8), Maryland (13), Ohio State (19), Iowa (22), Rutgers (23), Penn State (27), Wisconsin (30), Illinois (32), Purdue (35), Michigan (36), Indiana (44)

Big XII (4): *Baylor (1), Kansas (4), West Virginia (7), Oklahoma (46)

Big West (1): UC-Irvine (120)

Colonial (1): William & Mary (135)

Conference USA (1): North Texas (78)

Horizon (1): Wright State (113)

Ivy (1): Yale (56)

MAAC (1): Monmouth (199)

MAC (1): Akron (65)

MEAC (1): Norfolk State (260)

Missouri Valley (1): Northern Iowa (49)

Mountain West (1): San Diego State (2)

NEC (1): Robert Morris (225)

OVC (1): Austin Peay (128)

Pac 12 (5): Arizona (10), *Oregon (16), Colorado (17), Stanford (18), USC (40)

Patriot (1): Colgate (117)

SEC (6): Auburn (20), Kentucky (21), *LSU (25), Arkansas (28), Florida (37), Alabama (41)

SoCon (1): East Tennessee State (42)

Southland (1): Stephen F. Austin (85)

SWAC (1): Prairie View A&M (192)

Summit (1): South Dakota State (137)

Sun Belt (1): Little Rock (142)

WCC (3): *Gonzaga (3), BYU (29), Saint Mary’s (34)

WAC (1): New Mexico State (118)
______________________________

Last 4 In: NC State (50), Memphis (51), Virginia Tech (52), Virginia (59)

First 8 Out: Texas Tech (38), VCU (39), Minnesota (43), Georgetown (53), Arizona State (57), Cincinnati (58), Syracuse (64), Utah (74)

Non-Power 7 At-Larges (3): BYU (29), Saint Mary's (34), Rhode Island (47)

Movin’ On In (8): Purdue, Rhode Island, Robert Morris, South Dakota State, Vermont, Virginia Tech, Winthrop, Yale

Movin’ On Out (8): DePaul, North Dakota State, Princeton, Radford, Richmond, Saint Francis-Pa., Stony Brook, Texas Tech

Next Field of 68 Projection: Monday, February 3
 
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MinnGopher said:
Man a win against Purdue or DePaul/Utah would have been huge. Our destiny is still in our hands though so can't really complain.
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Would especially love to have one of Utah/Purdue as a road win. That's the biggest detriment to the Gophers' resume, the poor true record.
 



SelectionSunday said:
Would especially love to have one of Utah/Purdue as a road win. That's the biggest detriment to the Gophers' resume, the poor true record.
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Always enjoy you're expertise. Two quick questions.....

Curious, why are Michigan (0-5) and Purdue (1-5) with crap road records in the field, but Minnesota is not? Resumes about equal, Michigan has Gonzaga win, Purdue has MSU win, but generally both have played a worse SOS and have about same record across the board, same number of Quad 1 and Quad 2 games with similar records. Indiana (1-3 on road) with worse NET ranking, fewer Quad 1 and Quad 2 games played.

Also, wondering what you like about Rhode Island as an at-large? I cannot find anything redeeming about their resume to include them. They have three blowout losses in Quad 1 games, a best win over #39 VCU and a horrific loss to #228 Brown.
 

tjgopher said:
Always enjoy you're expertise. Two quick questions.....

Curious, why are Michigan (0-5) and Purdue (1-5) with crap road records in the field, but Minnesota is not? Resumes about equal, Michigan has Gonzaga win, Purdue has MSU win, but generally both have played a worse SOS and have about same record across the board, same number of Quad 1 and Quad 2 games with similar records. Indiana (1-3 on road) with worse NET ranking, fewer Quad 1 and Quad 2 games played.

Also, wondering what you like about Rhode Island as an at-large? I cannot find anything redeeming about their resume to include them. They have three blowout losses in Quad 1 games, a best win over #39 VCU and a horrific loss to #228 Brown.
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You hit on the reason(s) I have Michigan & Purdue in. ... better high-end wins. There's really not a whole lot of difference right now between Indiana, Michigan, Gophers, Ohio State, and Purdue (and perhaps soon Wisconsin). Going to be interesting to watch how those teams shake down down the stretch.

Rhode Island is a very fair selection for you to pick on! Mostly, I'm going with URI's computer numbers (both NET & KPI like them). There are some "decent" wins and/or wins vs. teams under consideration for the field such as Alabama/North Texas/Providence/@ VCU. Definitely a stinker of a loss to Brown, but I'm not a big "bad loss" guy unless a team has several of them.
 

The tough thing the Gophers face is that--and I'm serious about this--twelve Big Ten teams are deserving, but twelve won't get in. Robbie Hummel has the Gophs 8th in this week's power rankings, but another BTNer has Minnesota out of the tourney with Michigan and Ohio State in, their crappy conference records notwithstanding. I hope we can count on the selection committee not making this a popularity contest like that guy did.
 

SelectionSunday said:
You hit on the reason(s) I have Michigan & Purdue in. ... better high-end wins. There's really not a whole lot of difference right now between Indiana, Michigan, Gophers, Ohio State, and Purdue (and perhaps soon Wisconsin). Going to be interesting to watch how those teams shake down down the stretch.
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All good, I look forward to your next update. Always enjoy it.

SelectionSunday said:
Rhode Island is a very fair selection for you to pick on! Mostly, I'm going with URI's computer numbers (both NET & KPI like them).
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I just can't put the Rhode Island above the Gopher resume for an at-large and I don't think I'm being a homer. It just doesn't stack up. I mean if you want to use computer numbers the Gophers are still better across the board.

One other quibble...I cannot put Alabama in over Minnesota, either.

11-8 Minnesota has played 14 Quad 1 and Quad 2 games (all road losses are Quad 1). Best wins over #19 twice, #27, and #35 (four wins over top 35). Two wins better than Bama's best win.

12-7 Alabama has played played only 9 Quad 1 and Quad 2 games. Best win over #20 Auburn, and next best is #48 and #54. They have a Quad 4 loss to #165 at home.

No way.
 
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Bad Gopher said:
The tough thing the Gophers face is that--and I'm serious about this--twelve Big Ten teams are deserving, but twelve won't get in. Robbie Hummel has the Gophs 8th in this week's power rankings, but another BTNer has Minnesota out of the tourney with Michigan and Ohio State in, their crappy conference records notwithstanding. I hope we can count on the selection committee not making this a popularity contest like that guy did.
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Get to 17 wins and they will have to take the Gophers. That's the goal.
 

Bad Gopher said:
The tough thing the Gophers face is that--and I'm serious about this--twelve Big Ten teams are deserving, but twelve won't get in. Robbie Hummel has the Gophs 8th in this week's power rankings, but another BTNer has Minnesota out of the tourney with Michigan and Ohio State in, their crappy conference records notwithstanding. I hope we can count on the selection committee not making this a popularity contest like that guy did.
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Yep, eventually there will be some attrition. At least 1 or 2 of these 12 will lose too many games to be considered, even if they have a bunch of Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins. Gut feeling right now is 9 or 10 will get in.
 

Joey Brackets and I currently differ on 4 teams. He has the Gophers, Texas Tech, Tulsa (as an auto qualifier), and VCU in the Field of 68, in their place I have Alabama, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Virginia Tech.

www.espn.com

Zach Edey returning to Purdue shakes up Bracketology in a big way

Kansas remains the clear preseason No. 1, but the Boilermakers have slipped in behind the Jayhawks as a probable repeat 1-seed with revenge on their minds.
www.espn.com
 

SelectionSunday said:
Joey Brackets and I currently differ on 4 teams. He has the Gophers, Texas Tech, Tulsa (as an auto qualifier), and VCU in the Field of 68, in their place I have Alabama, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Virginia Tech.

www.espn.com

Zach Edey returning to Purdue shakes up Bracketology in a big way

Kansas remains the clear preseason No. 1, but the Boilermakers have slipped in behind the Jayhawks as a probable repeat 1-seed with revenge on their minds.
www.espn.com
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SS, you're my guy, but I have to agree with Joey (which I don't usually do).

Rhode Island, Alabama, Virginia, and VT all have much, much light resumes than Minnesota. Like, I'm not sure it is even all that close. Virginia's ONLY Quad 1 win is over #64 Syracuse. Gophers have . Virginia doesn't have a win over a team currently solidly projected into the NCAA. They have a couple of Quad 3 losses. Very flimsy resumes for them.

Time will tell, but right now, none of those four have the resume Minnesota does and I think Minnesota has a margin for error even. Gophers have four wins better than Virginia's best win and Gophs are ranked 15 spots higher in NET. That isn't a tight chase. Defending champs or not, UVA can't be in (as of now) over MN.
 



SelectionSunday said:
Yep, eventually there will be some attrition. At least 1 or 2 of these 12 will lose too many games to be considered, even if they have a bunch of Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins. Gut feeling right now is 9 or 10 will get in.
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That's my thought, too. A bid is there for the taking.
 

tjgopher said:
SS, you're my guy, but I have to agree with Joey (which I don't usually do).

Rhode Island, Alabama, Virginia, and VT all have much, much light resumes than Minnesota. Like, I'm not sure it is even all that close. Virginia's ONLY Quad 1 win is over #64 Syracuse. Gophers have . Virginia doesn't have a win over a team currently solidly projected into the NCAA. They have a couple of Quad 3 losses. Very flimsy resumes for them.

Time will tell, but right now, none of those four have the resume Minnesota does and I think Minnesota has a margin for error even. Gophers have four wins better than Virginia's best win and Gophs are ranked 15 spots higher in NET. That isn't a tight chase. Defending champs or not, UVA can't be in (as of now) over MN.
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Good thing it's not the final projection!
 

Wednesday NET Top-75 Matchups
#1 Baylor @ #66 Iowa State
#7 West Virginia @ #37 Texas Tech
#64 DePaul @ #13 Seton Hall
#40 Alabama @ #23 LSU
#26 Marquette @ #61 Xavier
#47 Indiana @ #27 Penn State
#68 Texas @ #60 TCU
 

I did mine after last night's games so that could be the reason for some differences. (I had Virginia out before their big win last night.) Here are our differences:

IN
Mississippi St
Minnesota
VCU

OUT
Purdue
Memphis
Virginia Tech

First Four Out: Cincinnati, Syracuse, Purdue, Memphis
Last Four In: Alabama, VCU, Minnesota, Florida

Teams that I'm much higher on than other brackets I've seen:
Villanova (have them on the 2 line)
LSU (don't like them, but 3-4 seed before solid win tonight)
St. Mary's (6-7 seed)
MIss St
Rhode Island
Cincinnati

Teams I'm much lower on than other brackets I've seen:
Gonzaga (a 3 seed right now with that SOS)
Stanford (11 seed)
Michigan (11 seed, resume not much different than Gophers numbers-wise)
Virginia Tech
Texas Tech (a ways out, will move up my board some with the win tonight though)
 


SelectionSunday said:
The Gophers (11-9, 5-5, #43 NET) are still right there in the mix for a NCAA bid despite yesterday's humbling loss to Michigan State. Gophers have a single game this week (Thursday @ Big Ten co-leader Illinois), and a win there certainly would get them into the field next week.

That said, their main priority right now is to make sure they win at least 1 of their next 2 (also Feb. 5 vs. Wisconsin at The Barn). The Illinois game feels like "house money" if they win, but the Gophers absolutely can not slip up at home vs. an eminently beatable Badgers squad.

We have 8 new teams moving into the field, 3 of those at-larges, Purdue, Rhode Island, and Virginia Tech. They replace DePaul, Richmond, and Texas Tech.

FIELD OF 68 (1/27/20) -- * denotes conference leader/best NET ranking in multiple-bid conference
America East (1): Vermont (97)

American (3): Wichita State (31), *Houston (33), Memphis (51)

ACC (6): Duke (6), *Louisville (11), Florida State (15), NC State (50), Virginia Tech (52), Virginia (59)

ASUN (1): Liberty (73)

Atlantic 10 (2): *Dayton (5), Rhode Island (47)

Big East (5): Butler (9), *Seton Hall (12), Villanova (14), Creighton (24), Marquette (26)

Big Sky (1): Montana (140)

Big South (1): Winthrop (131)

Big Ten (11): *Michigan State (8), Maryland (13), Ohio State (19), Iowa (22), Rutgers (23), Penn State (27), Wisconsin (30), Illinois (32), Purdue (35), Michigan (36), Indiana (44)

Big XII (4): *Baylor (1), Kansas (4), West Virginia (7), Oklahoma (46)

Big West (1): UC-Irvine (120)

Colonial (1): William & Mary (135)

Conference USA (1): North Texas (78)

Horizon (1): Wright State (113)

Ivy (1): Yale (56)

MAAC (1): Monmouth (199)

MAC (1): Akron (65)

MEAC (1): Norfolk State (260)

Missouri Valley (1): Northern Iowa (49)

Mountain West (1): San Diego State (2)

NEC (1): Robert Morris (225)

OVC (1): Austin Peay (128)

Pac 12 (5): Arizona (10), *Oregon (16), Colorado (17), Stanford (18), USC (40)

Patriot (1): Colgate (117)

SEC (6): Auburn (20), Kentucky (21), *LSU (25), Arkansas (28), Florida (37), Alabama (41)

SoCon (1): East Tennessee State (42)

Southland (1): Stephen F. Austin (85)

SWAC (1): Prairie View A&M (192)

Summit (1): South Dakota State (137)

Sun Belt (1): Little Rock (142)

WCC (3): *Gonzaga (3), BYU (29), Saint Mary’s (34)

WAC (1): New Mexico State (118)
______________________________

Last 4 In: NC State (50), Memphis (51), Virginia Tech (52), Virginia (59)

First 8 Out: Texas Tech (38), VCU (39), Minnesota (43), Georgetown (53), Arizona State (57), Cincinnati (58), Syracuse (64), Utah (74)

Non-Power 7 At-Larges (3): BYU (29), Saint Mary's (34), Rhode Island (47)

Movin’ On In (8): Purdue, Rhode Island, Robert Morris, South Dakota State, Vermont, Virginia Tech, Winthrop, Yale

Movin’ On Out (8): DePaul, North Dakota State, Princeton, Radford, Richmond, Saint Francis-Pa., Stony Brook, Texas Tech

Next Field of 68 Projection: Monday, February 3
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SS thanks for doing this, i really enjoy the effort to produce this.
 

builtbadgers said:
SS thanks for doing this, i really enjoy the effort to produce this.
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No problem at all, Built. Enjoy doing it.

Plan is to have a weekly projection (Sunday night or Monday morning) the rest of the way until Selection Sunday. Hope I can stick to it.
 

What a strictly NET-based, S-curved NCAA Tournament bracket might look like as of today. #27 Stanford and #28 BYU flipped seeds so that BYU would not play on a Sunday.

It produced 3 inter-conference matchups: Gophers vs. Indiana in the First 4; Kentucky vs. Florida in Greensboro; and Auburn vs. Arkansas in Cleveland.

The top seeds (1-16) were placed in their closest geographic regional/pod as much as possible.

WEST REGIONAL (Los Angeles)
Sacramento
#1 San Diego State vs. #64 Monmouth/Robert Morris winner
#32 Wichita State vs. #33 VCU

Tampa
#16 Florida State vs. #49 Stephen F. Austin
#17 Ohio State vs. #48 North Texas

Greensboro
#9 West Virginia vs. #56 Colgate
#24 Kentucky vs. #41 Florida

Saint Louis
#8 Butler vs. #57 South Dakota State
#25 Creighton vs. #40 Alabama

EAST REGIONAL (New York)
Omaha
#4 Kansas vs. #61 Little Rock
#29 Illinois vs. #36 Houston

Albany
#13 Villanova vs. #52 Wright State
#20 Colorado vs. #45 Minnesota/Indiana winner

Albany
#12 Maryland vs. #53 UC-Irvine
#21 Iowa vs. #44 Rhode Island/Washington winner

Cleveland
#5 Dayton vs. #60 Bowling Green
#28 Stanford vs. #37 Purdue

SOUTH REGIONAL (Houston)
Omaha
#2 Baylor vs. #63 Prairie View A&M/Norfolk State winner
#31 Wisconsin vs. #34 Saint Mary’s

Spokane
#15 Oregon vs. #50 *Vermont
#18 Rutgers vs. #47 Liberty

Saint Louis
#10 Louisville vs. #55 Winthrop
#23 Penn State vs. #42 Mississippi State

Cleveland
#7 Michigan State vs. #58 Austin Peay
#26 Auburn vs. #39 Arkansas

MIDWEST REGIONAL (Indianapolis)
Spokane
#3 Gonzaga vs. #62 Eastern Washington
#30 Texas Tech vs. #35 Michigan

Tampa
#14 Seton Hall vs. #51 Furman
#19 LSU vs. #46 Yale

Sacramento
#11 Arizona vs. #54 New Mexico State
#22 Marquette vs. #43 Northern Iowa

Greensboro
#6 Duke vs. #59 William & Mary
#27 BYU vs. #38 USC
 

SelectionSunday said:
Omaha
#4 Kansas vs. #61 Little Rock
#29 Illinois vs. #36 Houston

Omaha
#2 Baylor vs. #63 Prairie View A&M/Norfolk State winner
#31 Wisconsin vs. #34 Saint Mary’s
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I am quite sick of seeing Rock Chalk in person but knew the risk when signing up for Omaha. Would be thrilled to see former Carleton Knight Freddie Gillespie though with Baylor. Sampson vs Illini would also have some intrigue. Orange Crush tends to have a long memory, with regards to the Eric Gordon recruiting.
 

Ope3 said:
I am quite sick of seeing Rock Chalk in person but knew the risk when signing up for Omaha. Would be thrilled to see former Carleton Knight Freddie Gillespie though with Baylor. Sampson vs Illini would also have some intrigue. Orange Crush tends to have a long memory, with regards to the Eric Gordon recruiting.
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Self vs. Illinois in 2nd round likely would provide some juice. Illini fans still don't understand why Self would leave Champaign for a blueblood!
 

SelectionSunday said:
Self vs. Illinois in 2nd round likely would provide some juice. Illini fans still don't understand why Self would leave Champaign for a blueblood!
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I should have noticed that first.
 

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