Initial In-Season Field of 68 Projection A Combination of Early Resume and Eye Test

[SelectionSunday]

Here’s our first in-season Field of 68 projection. For now, I’ve dropped the Gophers out of the field and into the “first 4 out” after having them among the “last 4 in” in the final preseason projection.

Please note, until there are enough games to get a better feel for teams, projections will be a hybrid combining resume and eye test. What that means is early on you’ll see projected at-large teams with less than stellar rankings. Once we hit mid-January or so, eye test gets thrown out the window and it’ll be all about the resume.

An * denotes the leader in a multiple-bid conference or -- in the event of a standings tie -- the team with the best Erik Haslam (@Haslametrics on Twitter) ranking, which are noted in parentheses.

FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION (12/6/20)
America East (1): Vermont (64)

American (2): *Houston (4), SMU (70)

ACC (7): *Virginia (2), North Carolina (15), Virginia Tech (16), Duke (20), Louisville (25), Clemson (32), Florida State (38)

ASUN (1): Liberty (98)

Atlantic 10 (3): *Saint Louis (18), Richmond (65), Rhode Island (84)

Big East (5): *Villanova (13), Creighton (14), Xavier (27), Marquette (40), UConn (49)

Big Sky (1): Southern Utah (172)

Big South (1): Winthrop (138)

Big Ten (9): *Illinois (6), Maryland (7), Michigan State (8), Wisconsin (11), Ohio State (19), Indiana (28), Michigan (30), Iowa (35), Rutgers (54)

Big XII (6): Texas Tech (3), Baylor (5), Texas (17), West Virginia (26), Kansas (33), *Oklahoma (36)

Big West (1): UCSB (115)

Colonial (1): College of Charleston (142)

Conference USA (2): *UAB (78), Western Kentucky (96)

Horizon (1): Wright State (145)

MAAC (1): Siena (173)

MAC (1): Toledo (90)

MEAC (1): North Carolina A&T (212)

Missouri Valley (1): Loyola (55)

Mountain West (1): San Diego State (34)

NEC (1): LIU (246)

OVC (1): Murray State (110)

Pac 12 (5): Stanford (24), Oregon (29), Arizona State (46), *UCLA (50), USC (56)

Patriot (1): Colgate (133)

SEC (6): *Florida (9), LSU (10), Tennessee (12), Arkansas (22), Missouri (31), Alabama (42)

SoCon (1): Furman (69)

Southland (1): Abilene Christian (130)

SWAC (1): Texas Southern (237)

Summit (1): South Dakota State (77)

Sun Belt (1): Georgia State (71)

WCC (2): *Gonzaga (1), San Francisco (52)

WAC (1): New Mexico State (113)

Last 4 In: San Francisco (52), USC (56), Rhode Island (84), Western Kentucky (96)

First 4 Out: NC State (23), Colorado (41), Minnesota (43), Saint Mary’s (76)

8 to Watch: Purdue (21), Arizona (44), Seton Hall (47), Memphis (61), VCU (63), Ohio (87), BYU (107), Mercer (112)

Non-Power 6 At-Large Bids (5): San Francisco (52), Richmond (65), SMU (70), Rhode Island (84), Western Kentucky (96)

Preseason Final 4: Gonzaga, Kentucky, Michigan State, Virginia

National Champion: Gonzaga
_______________________
NEXT PROJECTION: Sunday. Dec. 20/Monday, Dec. 21

 

[golf]

Thanks for the info. espn seems to be putting more and more behind a paywall so cant read as much there anymore. Also miss your dividing our schedule into categories according to difficulty and showing the most likely path for us to make the tourney. Was always a good talker.

 

[Holy Man]

How messed up will the NET become in the pandemic? Seems like a perfect opportunity for the committee to hose mid majors more than they usually do.

 

[BleedGopher]

Thanks for the info. espn seems to be putting more and more behind a paywall so cant read as much there anymore. Also miss your dividing our schedule into categories according to difficulty and showing the most likely path for us to make the tourney. Was always a good talker.

Love this feature as well. If you have it in you Hodger, would be a good add to the board, though I realize in a year with so much up in the air, it may be hard to forecast.

Go Gophers!!

 

[SelectionSunday]

How messed up will the NET become in the pandemic? Seems like a perfect opportunity for the committee to hose mid majors more than they usually do.

I would think NET will be much less of "a thing" because of the abbreviated non-conference schedules + cancelations. Definitely a chance mid-majors will get hosed even more, but I kinda' feel if there's a really dominant mid-major in a league that traditionally only gets one bid, a couple of those will get rewarded. I'm thinking of leagues like the MAC, Missouri Valley, Conference USA, etc., f their dominant team doesn't win the conference tourney.

 

[SelectionSunday]

Thanks for the info. espn seems to be putting more and more behind a paywall so cant read as much there anymore. Also miss your dividing our schedule into categories according to difficulty and showing the most likely path for us to make the tourney. Was always a good talker.

Glad you like that. I'll put something together this afternoon/tonight. Definitely harder to do this season with non-conference schedules being so up in the air

 

[golf]

Glad you like that. I'll put something together this afternoon/tonight. Definitely harder to do this season with non-conference schedules being so up in the air

Great. Was looking at our schedule yesterday and trying to figure a path to the tourney so would enjoy that if u get a chance.

 

[Ope3]

Glad you like that. I'll put something together this afternoon/tonight. Definitely harder to do this season with non-conference schedules being so up in the air

Plus:

- What is the probability that all Gopher games scheduled are actually played?
- How much consideration are given to Home/Road/Neutral wins or are they all the same?
- What if any other conferences cancel their seasons and/or their Tournaments?
- Will the Field of 68 remain static or go up/down?

 

[golf]

Plus:

- What is the probability that all games scheduled are actually played?
- How much consideration are given to Home/Road/Neutral wins or are they all the same?
- What if any other conferences cancel their seasons and/or their Tournaments?
- Will the Field of 68 remain static or go up/down?

Yes. Lots of variables. The most interesting to me is your second point. Will be an intetesting experiment this season on the effect of fans on win/loss percentage of home games.

 

[Outsider]

I like BG in the MAC this year. They are the preseason favorite, stand at 4-1. Gave Michigan all they could handle in their opener before succumbing late in the game.

 

[howeda7]

Here’s our first in-season Field of 68 projection. For now, I’ve dropped the Gophers out of the field and into the “first 4 out” after having them among the “last 4 in” in the final preseason projection.

Please note, until there are enough games to get a better feel for teams, projections will be a hybrid combining resume and eye test. What that means is early on you’ll see projected at-large teams with less than stellar rankings. Once we hit mid-January or so, eye test gets thrown out the window and it’ll be all about the resume.

An * denotes the leader in a multiple-bid conference or -- in the event of a standings tie -- the team with the best Erik Haslam (@Haslametrics on Twitter) ranking, which are noted in parentheses.

FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION (12/6/20)
America East (1): Vermont (64)

American (2): *Houston (4), SMU (70)

ACC (7): *Virginia (2), North Carolina (15), Virginia Tech (16), Duke (20), Louisville (25), Clemson (32), Florida State (38)

ASUN (1): Liberty (98)

Atlantic 10 (3): *Saint Louis (18), Richmond (65), Rhode Island (84)

Big East (5): *Villanova (13), Creighton (14), Xavier (27), Marquette (40), UConn (49)

Big Sky (1): Southern Utah (172)

Big South (1): Winthrop (138)

Big Ten (9): *Illinois (6), Maryland (7), Michigan State (8), Wisconsin (11), Ohio State (19), Indiana (28), Michigan (30), Iowa (35), Rutgers (54)

Big XII (6): Texas Tech (3), Baylor (5), Texas (17), West Virginia (26), Kansas (33), *Oklahoma (36)

Big West (1): UCSB (115)

Colonial (1): College of Charleston (142)

Conference USA (2): *UAB (78), Western Kentucky (96)

Horizon (1): Wright State (145)

MAAC (1): Siena (173)

MAC (1): Toledo (90)

MEAC (1): North Carolina A&T (212)

Missouri Valley (1): Loyola (55)

Mountain West (1): San Diego State (34)

NEC (1): LIU (246)

OVC (1): Murray State (110)

Pac 12 (5): Stanford (24), Oregon (29), Arizona State (46), *UCLA (50), USC (56)

Patriot (1): Colgate (133)

SEC (6): *Florida (9), LSU (10), Tennessee (12), Arkansas (22), Missouri (31), Alabama (42)

SoCon (1): Furman (69)

Southland (1): Abilene Christian (130)

SWAC (1): Texas Southern (237)

Summit (1): South Dakota State (77)

Sun Belt (1): Georgia State (71)

WCC (2): *Gonzaga (1), San Francisco (52)

WAC (1): New Mexico State (113)

Last 4 In: San Francisco (52), USC (56), Rhode Island (84), Western Kentucky (96)

First 4 Out: NC State (23), Colorado (41), Minnesota (43), Saint Mary’s (76)

8 to Watch: Purdue (21), Arizona (44), Seton Hall (47), Memphis (61), VCU (63), Ohio (87), BYU (107), Mercer (112)

Non-Power 6 At-Large Bids (5): San Francisco (52), Richmond (65), SMU (70), Rhode Island (84), Western Kentucky (96)

Preseason Final 4: Gonzaga, Kentucky, Michigan State, Virginia

National Champion: Gonzaga
_______________________
NEXT PROJECTION: Sunday. Dec. 20/Monday, Dec. 21

You seem to have Kentucky out but also in the Final Four? Or am I missing something?

 

[SelectionSunday]

You seem to have Kentucky out but also in the Final Four? Or am I missing something?

Simply as a reminder to folks I will list my preseason Final 4 at the bottom of every projection. I can't change that, unfortunately, because Kentucky is looking like a*s right now. That pick isn't looking too promising.

 

[howeda7]

Simply as a reminder to folks I will list my preseason Final 4 at the bottom of every projection. I can't change that, unfortunately, because Kentucky is looking like a*s right now. That pick isn't looking too promising.

Ah. I know they were bad yesterday, but surprised you'd have them all the way out.

 

[SelectionSunday]

Ah. I know they were bad yesterday, but surprised you'd have them all the way out.

I can't give them the benefit of the doubt with how bad they've looked so far. My guess is Cal will eventually get them there, but they have to prove it. They're 1-3 and they still have to play Notre Dame, UCLA, and Louisville in the non-conference, not to mention Detroit, who's looked pretty solid in close losses to Notre Dame and Michigan State.

 

[Holy Man]

I can't give them the benefit of the doubt with how bad they've looked so far. My guess is Cal will eventually get them there, but they have to prove it. They're 1-3 and they still have to play Notre Dame, UCLA, and Louisville in the non-conference, not to mention Detroit, who's looked pretty solid in close losses to Notre Dame and Michigan State.

Dakich ripped on Cal yesterday saying that he won't play anyone in the NC schedule who has beaten him. Said Richmond is off the list now. Indiana has been. Not sure if this is Indiana Kentucky b.s. or there is something to it. Would not surprise me. Cal seems like he could be a little thin skinned.

One and dones are talented, but there is risk. In a year with little practice time, it could bite him.

 

[builtbadgers]

Really enjoy it when you do these. Your a whole lot better at it then i am. I do have the Gophers in as of now.

 

[SelectionSunday]

Really enjoy it when you do these. Your a whole lot better at it then i am. I do have the Gophers in as of now.

Thanks Built, appreciate it.

Gophers are right on the cusp. Looking forward to see how they compete vs. Illinois and Saint Louis. Can't afford to slip up at home vs. BC.

 

[golf]

Dakich ripped on Cal yesterday saying that he won't play anyone in the NC schedule who has beaten him. Said Richmond is off the list now. Indiana has been. Not sure if this is Indiana Kentucky b.s. or there is something to it. Would not surprise me. Cal seems like he could be a little thin skinned.

One and dones are talented, but there is risk. In a year with little practice time, it could bite him.

Spare me with Cal. Was watching the other night and during a timeout Cal ran out to the free throw line to personally demonstrate how he wanted his post to post. Vitale was beyond impressed by this display. I wanted to gag. Am guessing UMass and Memphis would not be particularly impressed as well.

Good for Dakich to go frontal.

 

[nitramnaed]

Here’s our first in-season Field of 68 projection. For now, I’ve dropped the Gophers out of the field and into the “first 4 out” after having them among the “last 4 in” in the final preseason projection.

Please note, until there are enough games to get a better feel for teams, projections will be a hybrid combining resume and eye test. What that means is early on you’ll see projected at-large teams with less than stellar rankings. Once we hit mid-January or so, eye test gets thrown out the window and it’ll be all about the resume.

An * denotes the leader in a multiple-bid conference or -- in the event of a standings tie -- the team with the best Erik Haslam (@Haslametrics on Twitter) ranking, which are noted in parentheses.

FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION (12/6/20)
America East (1): Vermont (64)

American (2): *Houston (4), SMU (70)

ACC (7): *Virginia (2), North Carolina (15), Virginia Tech (16), Duke (20), Louisville (25), Clemson (32), Florida State (38)

ASUN (1): Liberty (98)

Atlantic 10 (3): *Saint Louis (18), Richmond (65), Rhode Island (84)

Big East (5): *Villanova (13), Creighton (14), Xavier (27), Marquette (40), UConn (49)

Big Sky (1): Southern Utah (172)

Big South (1): Winthrop (138)

Big Ten (9): *Illinois (6), Maryland (7), Michigan State (8), Wisconsin (11), Ohio State (19), Indiana (28), Michigan (30), Iowa (35), Rutgers (54)

Big XII (6): Texas Tech (3), Baylor (5), Texas (17), West Virginia (26), Kansas (33), *Oklahoma (36)

Big West (1): UCSB (115)

Colonial (1): College of Charleston (142)

Conference USA (2): *UAB (78), Western Kentucky (96)

Horizon (1): Wright State (145)

MAAC (1): Siena (173)

MAC (1): Toledo (90)

MEAC (1): North Carolina A&T (212)

Missouri Valley (1): Loyola (55)

Mountain West (1): San Diego State (34)

NEC (1): LIU (246)

OVC (1): Murray State (110)

Pac 12 (5): Stanford (24), Oregon (29), Arizona State (46), *UCLA (50), USC (56)

Patriot (1): Colgate (133)

SEC (6): *Florida (9), LSU (10), Tennessee (12), Arkansas (22), Missouri (31), Alabama (42)

SoCon (1): Furman (69)

Southland (1): Abilene Christian (130)

SWAC (1): Texas Southern (237)

Summit (1): South Dakota State (77)

Sun Belt (1): Georgia State (71)

WCC (2): *Gonzaga (1), San Francisco (52)

WAC (1): New Mexico State (113)

Last 4 In: San Francisco (52), USC (56), Rhode Island (84), Western Kentucky (96)

First 4 Out: NC State (23), Colorado (41), Minnesota (43), Saint Mary’s (76)

8 to Watch: Purdue (21), Arizona (44), Seton Hall (47), Memphis (61), VCU (63), Ohio (87), BYU (107), Mercer (112)

Non-Power 6 At-Large Bids (5): San Francisco (52), Richmond (65), SMU (70), Rhode Island (84), Western Kentucky (96)

Preseason Final 4: Gonzaga, Kentucky, Michigan State, Virginia

National Champion: Gonzaga
_______________________
NEXT PROJECTION: Sunday. Dec. 20/Monday, Dec. 21

God I love this! Even though I know we're a long way home.