Gophs at 16 with ESPN/Connelly/SP+

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swingman

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College football SP+ rankings after Week 11​

Bill ConnellyESPN Staff Writer
Week 11 of the college football season was ... messy. The Pac-12 devoured itself, as it is wont to do. UConn reached bowl eligibility. Vanderbilt not only beat an SEC opponent for the first time in a while but beat a ranked opponent on the road. Arkansas State tried to lose to UMass. Weird day.
Among the top teams, however, not much changed: Georgia, Ohio State and Michigan continued to look like the best teams in the country, and Alabama and Tennessee continued with their typical level of quality.
Below are this week's SP+ rankings. There are no changes in the top five.
What is SP+? In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.
SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.

SP+ Week 12 Rankings​

TEAMRATINGOFFENSEDEFENSESPEC TMS
1. Georgia (10-0)32.639.6 (14)7.7 (2)0.7 (14)
2. Ohio St. (10-0)32.442.8 (5)11.0 (5)0.6 (23)
3. Michigan (10-0)30.137.9 (20)8.5 (3)0.7 (7)
4. Alabama (8-2)26.241.8 (9)16.3 (15)0.7 (17)
5. Tennessee (9-1)24.846.4 (1)22.2 (35)0.6 (20)
6. TCU (10-0)20.742.5 (6)22.0 (34)0.3 (47)
7. Penn St. (8-2)19.936.2 (26)16.7 (16)0.4 (37)
16. Minnesota (7-3)15.126.2 (71)11.7 (6)0.6 (21)
26. Illinois (7-3)11.720.6 (97)9.1 (4)0
31. N. Carolina (9-1)9.744.8 (2)35.8 (110)0.7 (8)
33. Wisconsin (5-5)9.328.0 (65)18.3 (20)-0.5 (102)
3)-0.6 (
 

20. Iowa (6-4)12.819.0 (107)7.0 (1)0.7
 

Gophs by 2.3 on neutral....Gophs by 6 vs Bucky on neutral...
 

swingman said:

College football SP+ rankings after Week 11​

Bill ConnellyESPN Staff Writer
Week 11 of the college football season was ... messy. The Pac-12 devoured itself, as it is wont to do. UConn reached bowl eligibility. Vanderbilt not only beat an SEC opponent for the first time in a while but beat a ranked opponent on the road. Arkansas State tried to lose to UMass. Weird day.
Among the top teams, however, not much changed: Georgia, Ohio State and Michigan continued to look like the best teams in the country, and Alabama and Tennessee continued with their typical level of quality.
Below are this week's SP+ rankings. There are no changes in the top five.
What is SP+? In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.
SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.

SP+ Week 12 Rankings​

TEAMRATINGOFFENSEDEFENSESPEC TMS
1. Georgia (10-0)32.639.6 (14)7.7 (2)0.7 (14)
2. Ohio St. (10-0)32.442.8 (5)11.0 (5)0.6 (23)
3. Michigan (10-0)30.137.9 (20)8.5 (3)0.7 (7)
4. Alabama (8-2)26.241.8 (9)16.3 (15)0.7 (17)
5. Tennessee (9-1)24.846.4 (1)22.2 (35)0.6 (20)
6. TCU (10-0)20.742.5 (6)22.0 (34)0.3 (47)
7. Penn St. (8-2)19.936.2 (26)16.7 (16)0.4 (37)
16. Minnesota (7-3)15.126.2 (71)11.7 (6)0.6 (21)
26. Illinois (7-3)11.720.6 (97)9.1 (4)0
31. N. Carolina (9-1)9.744.8 (2)35.8 (110)0.7 (8)
33. Wisconsin (5-5)9.328.0 (65)18.3 (20)-0.5 (102)
3)-0.6 (
Click to expand...
They sure love Alabama. 2 loses plus a narrow victory yesterday and they rank them 4th.
 

The thing that worries me generally is the one dimensional offense… that makes me wonder if these models care about that kind of thing.
 


PhiloVance said:
They sure love Alabama. 2 loses plus a narrow victory yesterday and they rank them 4th.
Click to expand...
They don’t love anyone. It’s a mathematical formula

In my opinion the formula overrates SOS in terms of importance and underrated losses.


But with all efficiency metrics, if you lose close and win big the formula is going to like you. It’s the same formula telling us that 4-8 Nebraska was a top 40 team last year
 


It's not surprising. Minnesota has won their last 3 games against Big Ten opponents by a total of 82-16. The starting defense hasn't given up a TD in 6 of the 10 games.

The Gophers are very capable of being dominant winners against P5 teams when they can run the ball and control the clock. Not a lot of schools can do that in any dimension.
 

Some guy said:
They don’t love anyone. It’s a mathematical formula

In my opinion the formula overrates SOS in terms of importance and underrated losses.


But with all efficiency metrics, if you lose close and win big the formula is going to like you. It’s the same formula telling us that 4-8 Nebraska was a top 40 team last year
Click to expand...
More realistic poll has them at 7th and Gophers at 23.

www.collegefootballpoll.com

College Football Poll.com

College football rankings and accurate weekly picks. Exclusive content, features, and analysis.
www.collegefootballpoll.com www.collegefootballpoll.com
 



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