Gophers open as underdogs

[c'monman]

Perhaps the use of the word "pundits"? Let me know the next time you hear a bookie referred to as a "pundit". It will be your first.



First day on the internet? Unaware that people don't stick religiously to the thread topic?

I've obviously been on this board much longer than you, and I know what individual posters like to talk about. As I know RR's style and what interests him, I know what he was talking about. Most of the core, longtime posters would also understand without him needing to elucidate. Since you quite clearly don't, perhaps you should've asked for clarification before you gave him a lecture on market analysis.

when he doesnt know the difference between an oddsmaker and bookmaker he deserves to be lectured.

 

[RodentRampage]

Linemakers use a variety of methods to calculate their idea of the pointspread. Some use complicated computer programs that factor in recent performance, injuries, player match-ups, etc. Others simply have a feel for the games and produce a number out of thin air. However, most line makers use power ratings or some derivation.

I see you ignored that part. There isn't any sort of meaningful power ratings that that point. Or are you seriously trying to tell me that the oddmakers are putting the same level of research into the MN/MTSU game that they will into Ohio State? To the extent that they will do any research, the information available is going to be the empty information based solely on assuming that all the unknowns will be negatives.

 

[RodentRampage]

Furthermore...

The pointspread is not the handicapper’s predicted margin-of-victory, but it is in fact the handicapper’s prediction of what number will be required to split the wagering evenly on both teams.

 

[c'monman]

I see you ignored that part. There isn't any sort of meaningful power ratings that that point. Or are you seriously trying to tell me that the oddmakers are putting the same level of research into the MN/MTSU game that they will into Ohio State? To the extent that they will do any research, the information available is going to be the empty information based solely on assuming that all the unknowns will be negatives.

oh, so now you are agreeing with my premise that there is some analysis done to set the line, not just random betting? OK, glad we got that out of the way.

Given that stats/news travel extremely fast due to the development of technology; I would say in this current environment, all games are given the same amount of analysis by oddsmakers. Whether or not each game is given the same amount of action is rather obvious.

 

[c'monman]

Furthermore...

I agree with this assertion. However, how does the oddsmaker come to this conclusion then? The answer would be tied to statistical analysis/evaluation of each team. Your argument there is tremendously flawed.

 

[RodentRampage]

It's based on how the expect people to place their bets. There's no way they give the same level of research to Minnesota as they do to Ohio State. For one, there is a lot more at stake with the Ohio State game, the volume of betting is going to be far higher for an OSU game than for a Minnesota game.

Secondly, they couldn't do as much research, there isn't nearly as much available. They can examine what pundits have said about the teams, but there is far more information available out Ohio State than there is about Minnesota. And information about Minnesota that they have access to is based on assumptions.

 

[c'monman]

It's based on how the expect people to place their bets. There's no way they give the same level of research to Minnesota as they do to Ohio State. For one, there is a lot more at stake with the Ohio State game, the volume of betting is going to be far higher for an OSU game than for a Minnesota game.

Secondly, they couldn't do as much research, there isn't nearly as much available. They can examine what pundits have said about the teams, but there is far more information available out Ohio State than there is about Minnesota. And information about Minnesota that they have access to is based on assumptions.

Stating there isn't nearly as much information available is a statement which flat out represents your lack of intelligence about anything relating to sports betting in TODAYS world. Additionally, stating that there is more at "stake" when it comes to an OSU game than a Minnesota game is rather obvious on a monetary betting basis. However, to the oddsmaker it makes no difference.

Why do I feel like I'm repeating myself? LOL

 

[RodentRampage]

Stating there isn't nearly as much information available is a statement which flat out represents your lack of intelligence about anything relating to sports betting in TODAYS world.

It is simply a fact. There is simply far more information available about Ohio State than there is about Minnesota. More coverage = more information available. If Ohio State was replacing 9 starters on defense, there would be a tremendous amount of research devoted to whether or not those 9 new starters were any good. With Minnesota, it simply ends with an assumption that the 9 new starters won't be any good. I'm not blaming them, there simply are a lot more people interested in reading about OSU than there are about Michigan.

Additionally, stating that there is more at "stake" when it comes to an OSU game than a Minnesota game is rather obvious on a monetary betting basis. However, to the oddsmaker it makes no difference.

Now that is really hard to swallow, from any business perspective. Screw up the OSU line, and somone else is going to be making the odds. Screw up the Minnesota line, not as much.

 

[Schnoodler]

odds makers are in the business of sports betting. They could care less how the game turns out, only that they set the appropriate odds to generate betting action.

The odds reflect their perspective on the betting population. It's related to the actual teams, but one off. Thus if the general poplace thinks the gophers are a dog, that's where the line will start. The opinions of the populace is based on something. how close to the actual realities is another question.

 

[WolfontheProwl]

Interesting does it matter?

I think when looking at the Gophers all we can do is hope. We know so little about the defense because most of the players will be stepping u into starting roles. I dont think we can look at any player and say this is what he is or this is what he will be we are simply hoping. I don't think its a negative because we have so many really athletic guys who are young and getting their first shot at being the leaders of the team. I think its safe to say this team is a mystery not only to those of us who follow the team but also the national pundits. I dont think it matters if we are a favorite or not the only thing that matters is the team that we put on the field and how they play. So much of the speculation now is based on who is coming back and how good they were a tear ago. I think the Gophers have a chance to be a solid team which will suprise many and that will be a good thing. If we could win 7-8 games this year it will be a great accomplishment and to me another good starting point to go forward with.

 

[RodentRampage]

Yes, contrary to some people, Gopher fans are allowed to have hope. There's no NCAA bylaws forbidding it. I'm not assuming that the Gophers defense will be good, that would be making the same mistake that the pundits are doing. I'm simply recognizing that an unknown is just that, an unknown. No one has put in that much research to be able to answer this more clearly.

And I use the word "pundit" instead of sports journalist because predictions are acts of opinion (punditry), rather than reporting, and the line between reporter and opinion writing is pretty blurry anyway.

 

[c'monman]

It is simply a fact. There is simply far more information available about Ohio State than there is about Minnesota. More coverage = more information available. If Ohio State was replacing 9 starters on defense, there would be a tremendous amount of research devoted to whether or not those 9 new starters were any good. With Minnesota, it simply ends with an assumption that the 9 new starters won't be any good. I'm not blaming them, there simply are a lot more people interested in reading about OSU than there are about Michigan.



Now that is really hard to swallow, from any business perspective. Screw up the OSU line, and somone else is going to be making the odds. Screw up the Minnesota line, not as much.

wow, just when I thought you could not get any dumber. One person/business does not construct the lines. The "line" represents a pooled price that oddsmakers set together collectively, just like how the S&P 500 price is set, its an index.

By the way, just as much information is available to the odds makers versus an OSU game, trust me on this

 

[RodentRampage]

wow, just when I thought you could not get any dumber. One person/business does not construct the lines. The "line" represents a pooled price that oddsmakers set together collectively, just like how the S&P 500 price is set, its an index.

I didn't say one person constructed the lines. But screwing up a heavily traded game is going to be a bigger deal than screwing up a lightly traded game. After all, the S&P 500 isn't always the same 500 companies.

By the way, just as much information is available to the odds makers versus an OSU game, trust me on this

Well, now that I know I should trust you on this, that makes all the difference in the world.

 

[c'monman]

I didn't say one person constructed the lines. But screwing up a heavily traded game is going to be a bigger deal than screwing up a lightly traded game. After all, the S&P 500 isn't always the same 500 companies.



Well, now that I know I should trust you on this, that makes all the difference in the world.

"But screwing up a heavily traded game is going to be a bigger deal than screwing up a lightly traded game"

The market/line doesnt screw up you idiot! How many times do I have to reiterate my point?! . Reread the efficient market hypothesis, same theory applies to sports betting. My god, some people just don't get it.

 

[Schnoodler]

me thinks somebody wore out a previous moniker and picked up a new one soon to be wore out too.

 

[GopherRock]

Speaking of the punters, here are some other interesting lines for Week 1. Home team in caps:

Thursday

Southern Cal -18.5/-19 HAWAII (yes, a late game Thursday night for all of you CFB junkies)
UTAH -3 Pittsburgh (BCS Buster rematch)

Saturday

Colorado -12.5 COLORADO STATE
Mizzou -12.5 Illinois (St. Louis, MO)
NOTRE DAME -10.5 Purdue
MICHIGAN -2.5 UConn (Big House Rededication)
Ucla -2.5 KANSAS STATE
BRINGHAM YOUNG -3 Washington (Tough game for resurgent Mutts)
Wisconsin -19.5 UNLV (Red Invasion of Vegas)

Monday

Boise State -2.5 Virginia Tech (Landover, MD)

 

[hyaluronic]

"But screwing up a heavily traded game is going to be a bigger deal than screwing up a lightly traded game"

The market/line doesnt screw up you idiot! How many times do I have to reiterate my point?! . Reread the efficient market hypothesis, same theory applies to sports betting. My god, some people just don't get it.

First of all, you should change your screenname to cinnamon, because that's what I end up seeing every time I skim it.

Secondly, the efficient market hypothesis rests on several assumptions - which aren't always true.
Two assumptions that come into play here: 1.) Efficient markets rely on perfect information; 2.) Investors (bettors) are rational. No one - and I mean no one, has perfect information. And what sports fan is rational?

If you are arguing for the strong form of EMH, which it appears you are, you have been proven wrong. You can debate whether the weak form or semi-strong form of EMH is correct - but we know there are aberrations. In a financial market, look no further than Warren Buffet.

 

[LightningStrikes]

I'm betting on a scenario like the first hand of the last scene in Rounders. MTSU will try to come out looking tough. We'll chop a leg out from them, and lean on them the rest of the game until they fall over.

If you really expect this, you're going to be surprised. Middle has a habit of outlasting opponents. You may want to watch the NO Bowl highlights as a pretty representative example.

 

[RodentRampage]

Or maybe you'll be surprised. We played 3 top-10 opponents last year, we're not exactly inexperienced.

 

[monk10]

If you really expect this, you're going to be surprised. Middle has a habit of outlasting opponents. You may want to watch the NO Bowl highlights as a pretty representative example.

You are right I'll be surprised if it doesn't happen. You should be surprised to if you guys win.

 

[tds2n]

I think the bookies don't expect much of MN if they're putting this around the 4.5 mark.

It basically means, they think the public believes that MN will either outright win or lose by no less than a field-goal, simply because it's a big 10 / 12 school against a sunbelt school. Almost as if they're baiting betters to jump on MN. Doesn't mean they are necessarily right though.

 

[RodentRampage]

I think the bookies don't expect much of MN if they're putting this around the 4.5 mark.

It basically means, they think the public believes that MN will either outright win or lose by no less than a field-goal, simply because it's a big 10 / 12 school against a sunbelt school. Almost as if they're baiting betters to jump on MN. Doesn't mean they are necessarily right though.

It doesn't matter what the oddsmakers think that Minnesota will do, they are only interested in what the betters think. If you're an oddsmaker, seeing all these predictions of 2 or 3 total wins, and 0 or 1 Big Ten wins, that affects what you think the betters will think.

If the predictions are flawed, it means nothing to the oddsmaker, all that matters is what how the betters bet. The big wild card with the predictions is the assumptions that the new starters on defense will not be any good. That's possible, but it's still just an assumption.

 

[MTPiKapp]

i will be taking this bet. there is no way mtsu beats us and there is no way mtsu is within 14! i dont respect what they did last year and i think we will be a much better team this year!

I'd bet every dime I ever have or ever will make on Middle Tennessee +14.

 

[dpodoll68]

I'd bet every dime I ever have or ever will make on Middle Tennessee +14.

I'll second you on that. I don't know for sure who's going to win, but it will be close either way.