Forbes: GDP rate falls to 2% and there's nothing Trump or the Fed can do about it

Cruze

Active member
This is more evidence the Trumpster's tax cuts are not working. The only policies that will work are those that start to close the wage and wealth gaps in America. Tax cuts that only benefit the wealthy and part-time low wage jobs in the gig economy are not going to get it done.

The share of the U.S. workforce in the gig economy rose from 10.1 percent in 2005 to 15.8 percent in 2015. In 2016, 24 percent of Americans reported earning some money from the “digital platform economy” during the previous year (2015). The number of self-employed individuals (many of whom are independent workers in the gig economy) soared by over 19 percent from 2005 to 2015. https://www.naco.org/featured-resources/future-work-rise-gig-economy


U.S. [GDP] Is Slowing Down And There’s Nothing Trump Or The Fed Can Do

The third estimate of U.S. GDP growth was released today, confirming the previous estimate of 2%. This number may look low, but it is actually pretty good considering that analysts at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (FRBSF) recently estimated the new normal pace for U.S. GDP growth to be between 1.5% and 1.75%.

This is a far cry from the 2.4% average of the last 10 years, the 3% that once was considered normal and certainly the 4% that some thought possible after the massive tax cut and spending hike bill of 2017.

Private-sector analysts seem to agree. Economists at Deloitte, a consultancy, think that the U.S. will grow less than 2% in the next few years. While global risks such as the trade war are real, they find “the greatest uncertainty in the US economy to be that generated within the nation’s borders.”

Supply-side economists maintain that lower taxes spur economic growth, but the evidence for such claim is scant. When we superimposed the 10-year average of the highest income tax rates for individuals onto our data we found that, surprisingly, GDP fell along with tax rates.





In pursuit of faster growth, central bankers have depressed interest rates to unprecedented levels – even below zero – which so far has yielded few rewards. Distortions, however, are plenty: inflated stock prices, ballooning debt and growing inequality.

This has painted those in charge in a corner: Stay the course and run the risk of exacerbating those distortions, or abandon the effort and risk a market crash for stocks and bonds.

Read complete article at: [SUB][/SUB]https://www.forbes.com/sites/raulelizalde/2019/09/26/why-gdp-growth-is-slowing-and-why-neither-trump-nor-the-fed-can-fix-it/#6d809e9a6c9b
 
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MnplsGopher

Active member
Serious question: can our economy sustain real growth (inflation adjusted) forever?

The world's population will stop growing, at some point. And the growth of population seems to be the ultimate prime mover in all other global senses of growth.

I suppose you can try to argue/hope that even if the population is flat, people could decide to continue growing how much they consume on average. But at some point, you're making extra stuff just for the sake of making it (throwing it in a hole, burning it, turning around and recycling it, whatever).


So I think, the answer has to be: eventually, no, it's impossible. If you're already doing an awesome job, at some point you have to just accept that you can't keep improving.


If we accept that, then it's just a question of when do we accept it and how do we best get there?
 

GopherJake

Active member
Serious question: can our economy sustain real growth (inflation adjusted) forever?

The world's population will stop growing, at some point. And the growth of population seems to be the ultimate prime mover in all other global senses of growth.

I suppose you can try to argue/hope that even if the population is flat, people could decide to continue growing how much they consume on average. But at some point, you're making extra stuff just for the sake of making it (throwing it in a hole, burning it, turning around and recycling it, whatever).


So I think, the answer has to be: eventually, no, it's impossible. If you're already doing an awesome job, at some point you have to just accept that you can't keep improving.


If we accept that, then it's just a question of when do we accept it and how do we best get there?
This is a great question and one I have always had as well. I've decided that the real measure is, is economic growth keeping pace with population growth? If yes, then we're good. Or at least stable. If population growth is flat (zero), then zero growth just means we aren't getting better, but we also aren't getting worse. I think this makes sense?
 

TruthSeeker

Active member
Good. A recession is necessary to remake the world's economy and implement the green agenda. A recession will lower global energy consumption and lower birth rates. That means less carbon is emitted than projected due to less energy use and less humans on the planet.

That's not nearly enough though. Tough policy on carbon needs implementation, which requires a democrat president and a decent majority in the Senate. That's where impeachment falls into the strategy. If the economy tanks, Trump is done, but the Senate might not be. So Trump needs to be impeached but not necessarily removed. The entire point is to force GOP senators to say "Aye" or "Nay" on removing Trump. Those that say "Nay" will get hammered in negative campaign advertisements back at home. Those ads will be effective if the economy is in the gutter, the country actually wants Trump removed but GOP intransigence kept him in power, or both. Hammering those senators and winning a 53-55 seat majority is necessary to get a coalition to implement the green agenda. This is also the hardest part but extremely necessary because the filibuster comes next.

The filibuster is going to die. However, killing it isn't enough. Joe Manchin won't let the green agenda pass. Neither will a couple other senators. That's why running the 53-55 senator strategy of impeachment is the plan. You can lose a few senators and still pass the agenda. So, with the majority and a democrat as president, a massive green energy stimulus plan to remake the economy can pass. Carbon can be successfully killed through elimination of subsidies, taxes, and stringent environmental standards. The county comes out of the recession with massive Keynesian, green agenda, deficit spending (new grid, transmission lines, commuter and high speed rail everywhere, subsidies everywhere for new green energy power plants, storage and storage research, etc.), and the implementation of policy to accelerate the demise of fossil fuels.

That's why intransigence with Trump has been necessary. The recession is part of the catalyst to take over. The other part is impeaching Trump. Everything is coming into focus, the only question is if the execution of the plan will have successfully tanked the economy and impeached Trump with voters approval in mind. The new world order is attainable.
 

John Galt

Active member
Serious question: can our economy sustain real growth (inflation adjusted) forever?

The world's population will stop growing, at some point. And the growth of population seems to be the ultimate prime mover in all other global senses of growth.

I suppose you can try to argue/hope that even if the population is flat, people could decide to continue growing how much they consume on average. But at some point, you're making extra stuff just for the sake of making it (throwing it in a hole, burning it, turning around and recycling it, whatever).


So I think, the answer has to be: eventually, no, it's impossible. If you're already doing an awesome job, at some point you have to just accept that you can't keep improving.


If we accept that, then it's just a question of when do we accept it and how do we best get there?
How economic growth is measured is complicated and can be misleading by itself. And how important is it as a metric? I'd argue that household income and unemployment are probably better gauges of how the economy is doing. Growth will typically be highest right after a recession ends and slow down as we near the end of an economic expansion.
 

JimmyJamesMD

Active member
Good. A recession is necessary to remake the world's economy and implement the green agenda. A recession will lower global energy consumption and lower birth rates. That means less carbon is emitted than projected due to less energy use and less humans on the planet.

That's not nearly enough though. Tough policy on carbon needs implementation, which requires a democrat president and a decent majority in the Senate. That's where impeachment falls into the strategy. If the economy tanks, Trump is done, but the Senate might not be. So Trump needs to be impeached but not necessarily removed. The entire point is to force GOP senators to say "Aye" or "Nay" on removing Trump. Those that say "Nay" will get hammered in negative campaign advertisements back at home. Those ads will be effective if the economy is in the gutter, the country actually wants Trump removed but GOP intransigence kept him in power, or both. Hammering those senators and winning a 53-55 seat majority is necessary to get a coalition to implement the green agenda. This is also the hardest part but extremely necessary because the filibuster comes next.

The filibuster is going to die. However, killing it isn't enough. Joe Manchin won't let the green agenda pass. Neither will a couple other senators. That's why running the 53-55 senator strategy of impeachment is the plan. You can lose a few senators and still pass the agenda. So, with the majority and a democrat as president, a massive green energy stimulus plan to remake the economy can pass. Carbon can be successfully killed through elimination of subsidies, taxes, and stringent environmental standards. The county comes out of the recession with massive Keynesian, green agenda, deficit spending (new grid, transmission lines, commuter and high speed rail everywhere, subsidies everywhere for new green energy power plants, storage and storage research, etc.), and the implementation of policy to accelerate the demise of fossil fuels.

That's why intransigence with Trump has been necessary. The recession is part of the catalyst to take over. The other part is impeaching Trump. Everything is coming into focus, the only question is if the execution of the plan will have successfully tanked the economy and impeached Trump with voters approval in mind. The new world order is attainable.
Green plan is just another stimulus package for the rich to get richer. Its not going to **** to the environment.
 

John Galt

Active member
The economy is going to do what it's going to do. It's never really stimulated by the government, but it's often stifled by government intervention. Whichever party intervenes less will always be better for the economy.
 

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60's Guy
If you go bear hunting what’s the plan if you get one? (1) Heavy to get out of the woods? (2) Food value? (3) Expensive rug!
Just curious...obviously bear 🐻 hunting would be down on my list of things to do.
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