Field of 68 Projection: Michigan Into the Field As Last Team In, But Tough Final Week Lies Ahead

[SelectionSunday]

Only 2 weeks until Selection Sunday. …

This week we’ll do things a little differently. I’ll break down my Field of 68 projection into 7 sub-categories: (1) 1-bid-conferences; (2) tournament locks; (3) teams in the field needing 1 more regular season win to become a lock; (4); teams in the field needing 2 more regular season wins to become a lock; (5) teams squarely on the bubble/in the field; (6) teams squarely on the bubble/out of the field; and finally (7) longshots hanging by a string.

Current NET ranking is noted in parentheses.

FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION (through games played February 26)
PROJECTED 1-BID CONFERENCES (current leader/highest remaining conference tournament seed) (23)
1 America East: Vermont (123)
2 ASUN: Kennesaw State (120)
3 Atlantic 10: VCU (68)
4 Big Sky: Eastern Washington (118)
5 Big South: UNC-Asheville (140)
6 Big West: UC-Irvine (95)
7 Colonial: Hofstra (86)
8 Conference USA: FAU (19)
9 Horizon: Youngstown State (114)
10 Ivy: Yale (66)
11 Metro Atlantic: Iona (58)
12 MAC: Toledo (85)
13 MEAC: Howard (235)
14 Missouri Valley: Bradley (56)
15 NEC: Fairleigh Dickinson (307)
16 OVC: Morehead State (221)
17 Patriot: Colgate (99)
18 SoCon: Furman (88)
19 Southland: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (194)
20 SWAC: Alcorn State (248)
21 Summit: Oral Roberts (44)
22 Sun Belt: Southern Miss (83)
23 WAC: Utah Valley (82)

An * denotes the automatic qualifier in a multiple-bid conference.
TOURNAMENT LOCKS (27)
1 *Houston (1)
2 *Alabama (2)
3 Tennessee (3)
4 *UCLA (4)
5 *Purdue (5)
6 *Kansas (6)
7 *Saint Mary’s (7)
8 UConn (8)
9 Gonzaga (9)
10 Texas (10)
11 Arizona (11)
12 Baylor (12)
13 *Marquette (13)
14 Arkansas (14)
15 *San Diego State (15)
16 Creighton (16)
17 Kansas State (17)
18 Indiana (18)
19 Kentucky (20)
20 Maryland (21)
21 TCU (22)
22 Duke (24)
23 Xavier (25)
24 Virginia (28)
25 Miami (35)
26 Northwestern (41)
27 *Pitt (53)

IN THE FIELD/WIN 1 TO BECOME A LOCK (10)
1 Iowa State (23)
2 Texas A&M (27)
3 Nevada (30)
4 Rutgers (32)
5 Michigan State (33)
6 Illinois (34)
7 Providence (37)
8 Iowa (43)
9 USC (45)
10 Missouri (49)

IN THE FIELD/WIN 2 TO BECOME A LOCK (2)
1 Boise State (29)
2 Memphis (38)

SQUARELY ON THE BUBBLE/IN THE FIELD (6) – this gets us to 68 teams in the field.
1 West Virginia (26) -- LAST 4 IN
2 Auburn (36) -- LAST 4 IN
3 Mississippi State (39)
4 NC State (42)
5 Michigan (55) – LAST TEAM IN
6 Arizona State (61) -- LAST 4 IN

SQUARELY ON THE BUBBLE/OUT OF THE FIELD (7)
1 Utah State (31)
2 Oklahoma State (46) – FIRST TEAM OUT
3 North Carolina (47)
4 College of Charleston (51) -- FIRST 4 OUT
5 Penn State (59)
6 Clemson (60) -- FIRST 4 OUT
7 Wisconsin (72) -- FIRST 4 OUT

LONGSHOTS HANGING BY A STRING (5)
1 New Mexico (48)
2 North Texas (50)
3 Oregon (52)
4 Texas Tech (54)
5 Wake Forest (84)
_________________________
Last 4 In: West Virginia (26), Auburn (36), Michigan (55), Arizona State (61)

First 4 Out: Oklahoma State (46), College of Charleston (51), Clemson (60), Wisconsin (72)

Non-Power 6 At-Large Bids (4): Gonzaga (9), Boise State (29), Nevada (30), Memphis (38)

First 4 Automatic Qualifiers: Morehead State (221), Howard (235), Alcorn State (248), Fairleigh Dickinson (307)
___________________________
In With the New (3): Arizona State, Bradley, Furman

Out With the Old (3): Drake, Samford, Wisconsin

NEXT PROJECTION: Sunday evening, March 5

 

[Tucker32]

I have a question for you since you dig into this. Why does Lunardi, and others, have Wisconsin in with a NET in the 70s, and they are in 11th place in Big Ten?

 

[MUgopher32]

I have a question for you since you dig into this. Why does Lunardi, and others, have Wisconsin in with a NET in the 70s, and they are in 11th place in Big Ten?

NET is not used much at all for seeding/bids.

Its a tool to sort teams by data for win quality. Which is what Wisconsin does have a lot of.

Committee is never going to go right down the line of where teams are actually at in the NET though.

 

[Tucker32]

NET is not used much at all for seeding/bids.

Its a tool to sort teams by data for win quality. Which is what Wisconsin does have a lot of.

Committee is never going to go right down the line of where teams are actually at in the NET though.

Yes, it's just weird. However, WI is not good - the eye test alone tells you that. It also doesn't seem right that because of their NET, teams that beat them may not get a Quad 1 win, yet they are getting in the tourney ahead of those teams.

 

[BleedGopher]

What does wisconsin have to do to get in? I assume if they beat Purdue and avoid disaster against us they are in. I also assume a loss to us would crush their chances. What if they lose to Purdue and beat us?

The wisconsin game is our national championship. I hate to say it, but it is. This is our chance for a home win against a rival and one on the bubble.

 

[SelectionSunday]

I have a question for you since you dig into this. Why does Lunardi, and others, have Wisconsin in with a NET in the 70s, and they are in 11th place in Big Ten?

Where you finish in your conference is not a selection criteria. Not all conference schedules are created equal. That said, it's human nature they're likely keenly aware the Badgers currently are playing on Weakling Wednesday (11th place or worse).

Since the NCAA introduced its NET rankings in 2019, 4 teams with a NET ranking (on Selection Sunday) of #70 or worse have received at-large bids. So it wouldn't be unprecedented.

#77 Rutgers (2022)
#73 Saint John’s (2019)
#72 Wichita (2021)
#70 Michigan State (2021)

 

[SelectionSunday]

What does wisconsin have to do to get in? I assume if they beat Purdue and avoid disaster against us they are in. I also assume a loss to us would crush their chances. What if they lose to Purdue and beat us?

The wisconsin game is our national championship. I hate to say it, but it is. This is our chance for a home win against a rival and one on the bubble.

Bleed, there are a lot of variables, obviously, but here's my current gut feeling on the Badgers:

They're a lock if they beat Purdue and us + they might need to get 1 in Big Ten tourney.

Beat Purdue, lose to us, they probably would need to win at least 2 in BTT to be considered.

If they lose both, they're toast, would have to win the BTT. That's all the more reason to beat them. For once we may have a chance to deliver UW a kill shot. ... at least that would be something in this miserable season.