Field of 68 Projection: Gopher win over previously unbeaten Saint Louis keeps them among "first 4 out"

[SelectionSunday]

Here’s our second in-season Field of 68 projection. The Gophers remain in the “first 4 out” after Sunday night’s 90-82 win over previously unbeaten Saint Louis. The Big Ten leads with 9 projected NCAA Tournament bids, followed by the ACC with 8. There are 13 new teams in the field from our previous projection two weeks ago.

Please note, until there are enough games to get a better feel for teams, projections will be a hybrid combining resume and eye test. What that means is early on you’ll see projected at-large teams with less than stellar rankings. Once we hit mid-January or so, eye test gets thrown out the window and it’ll be all about the resume.

An * denotes the leader in a multiple-bid conference or -- in the event of a standings tie -- the team with the best Haslametrics ranking (noted in parentheses).

FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION (through games played Dec. 20)
America East (1): UMBC (185)

American (2): Houston (11), *SMU (50)

ACC (8): Virginia (5), *Syracuse (17), Clemson (22), Virginia Tech (26), Duke (31), North Carolina (35), Louisville (40), Florida State (41)

ASUN (1): Liberty (67)

Atlantic 10 (3): Saint Louis (7), *Davidson (61), Richmond (73)

Big East (6): Creighton (14), *Villanova (15), Xavier (34), Marquette (43), Seton Hall (45), UConn (46)

Big Sky (1): Southern Utah (163)

Big South (1): Winthrop (103)

Big Ten (9): Illinois (3), Wisconsin (6), Iowa (9), Michigan (10), *Rutgers (21), Michigan State (29), Purdue (32), Ohio State (37), Indiana (47)

Big XII (6): *Baylor (2), Texas Tech (8), Kansas (13), West Virginia (27), Texas (28), Oklahoma (44)

Big West (1): UCSB (104)

Colonial (1): Northeastern (128)

Conference USA (2): *Marshall (55), Western Kentucky (85)

Horizon (1): Wright State (60)

MAAC (1): Saint Peter’s (158)

MAC (1): Toledo (89)

MEAC (1): NCCU (242)

Missouri Valley (1): Loyola (53)

Mountain West (2): San Diego State (49), *Nevada (171)

NEC (1): Mount Saint Mary’s (213)

OVC (1): Belmont (191)

Pac 12 (3): *Oregon (23), Stanford (36), USC (42)

Patriot (1): Colgate (139)

SEC (5): *Tennessee (4), Florida (16), LSU (18), Missouri (19), Arkansas (20)

SoCon (1): Furman (84)

Southland (1): Abilene Christian (140)

SWAC (1): Texas Southern (231)

Summit (1): South Dakota State (94)

Sun Belt (1): Georgia State (91)

WCC (2): *Gonzaga (1), BYU (63)

WAC (1): New Mexico State (113)
_____________________________________

Last 4 In: Ohio State (37), Marquette (43), UConn (46), BYU (63)

First 4 Out: Colorado (12), Minnesota (48), UCLA (54), Saint Mary’s (72)

8 to Watch: Penn State (25), NC State (30), Arizona State (51), Providence (57), Memphis (68), Drake (69), Ohio (86), Boise State (92)

Non-Power 6 At-Large Bids (6): Saint Louis (7), Houston (11), San Diego State (49), BYU (63), Richmond (73), Western Kentucky (85)

Percentage of the Field Coming from Outside the Power 6: 31 of 68 (45.6%)

New to the Field (13): Belmont, BYU, Davidson, Marshall, Mount Saint Mary’s, Nevada, NCCU, Northeastern, Purdue, Saint Peter’s, Seton Hall, Syracuse, UMBC

Out With the Old (13): Alabama, Arizona State, College of Charleston, LIU, Maryland, Murray State, North Carolina A&T, Rhode Island, San Francisco, Siena, UAB, UCLA, Vermont
________________________________
Preseason Final 4: Gonzaga, Kentucky, Michigan State, Virginia

National Champion: Gonzaga

NEXT UPDATE: Sunday. Jan. 3/Monday, Jan. 4

 

[Otis]

Come on SS, that was a big win last night! A little love before the horror continues in the B1G.

 

[SelectionSunday]

Come on SS, that was a big win last night! A little love before the horror continues in the B1G.

Otis, I think we've all become jaded! Yes, we're in the middle of a particularly tough 5-game stretch (1-1 so far), but I don't chalk up Iowa, MSU, and Wisconsin as losses, not at all. Northwestern beating MSU shows the Spartans have warts, Rutgers beating Illinois shows the Illini haven't quite arrived yet as a lot of us thought, etc. All teams have warts, including the next 3 we play. If the Gophers play defense like they did last night and Carr is willing to "share the sugar" with his teammates like he did more of last night, this team can compete just fine.

 

[Plato]

Winning two of the next seven games would be something of a victory.
MN did not find the ILL warts like NW did. NW played very hard on defense which MN has yet to show against any team that can fog a mirror.

 

[UpAndUnder43]

Otis, I think we've all become jaded! Yes, we're in the middle of a particularly tough 5-game stretch (1-1 so far), but I don't chalk up Iowa, MSU, and Wisconsin as losses, not at all. Northwestern beating MSU shows the Spartans have warts, Rutgers beating Illinois shows the Illini haven't quite arrived yet as a lot of us thought, etc. All teams have warts, including the next 3 we play. If the Gophers play defense like they did last night and Carr is willing to "share the sugar" with his teammates like he did more of last night, this team can compete just fine.

I really believe if they make some shots, they can beat these teams. If they shoot poorly, they will get beat badly. With that being said there are reasons for optimism. I always appreciate your predictions, analysis and generally positive comments.