Examining early betting over/unders for the Big Ten in 2021 (Minnesota: 7)

BleedGopher

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Minnesota

DraftKings O/U: 7


The limited 2020 season didn’t allow for the Golden Gophers to build on the 11-2 record from ’19. Pushing for double-digit victories again hinges on the offense after regressing from 34.1 to 27.3 points a game last year. Also, Minnesota’s defense has to take a big step forward after surrendering 6.9 a play in ’20.

Early Call: Pass

Seven is the right call in the early projections. Minnesota has toss-up road dates at Colorado, Northwestern and Indiana, and the question marks on both sides of the ball would push us to stay away from this total (for now).


Go Gophers!!
 

Vegas has proven time and again they know WAY more than me, but I can't imagine doing worse than a push if one bets the over here. I did.
 

I guess you can call a 7-5 regular season "respectable." What's interesting about that particular regular season finish in the Gophers' case is that one has been rare in recent years. Generally, they have been better or worse than that. The last 7-5 regular season was Brewster's in 2008. They've had three 8 win, three 6 win, two 5 win, and two 3 win regular seasons (not counting 2020) since then. Of course, they also had the surprising 10 win one.

So, 4 regular seasons above that mark since 2008 and 7 below (not counting 2020). I'm going to go with above because I expect this team to be more like the 4 above than the 7 below.
 
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Bet the house on the over
No way I would call Colorado a toss-up. They are in the 5-5.5 range for 2021 wins. I would be hard pressed to call NW game a toss-up at this point as well. Wildcats lose a lot of key players from last year.
 


No way I would call Colorado a toss-up. They are in the 5-5.5 range for 2021 wins. I would be hard pressed to call NW game a toss-up at this point as well. Wildcats lose a lot of key players from last year.

Non conference road games against P5 opponents are never easy. It's hard to tell what teams will be like based off last season and Colorado looked good at times.

Northwestern is also hard to get a read on at the beginning of each season, but they've won the west 2 out of the last 3 seasons.
 

Until we see how the fall camp goes a 7 - 5 projection seems about right. Defense and special teams and the wide receiver position (depth) are all open questions.
 

Until we see how the fall camp goes a 7 - 5 projection seems about right. Defense and special teams and the wide receiver position (depth) are all open questions.
As excited and vocal Fleck has been about how good this year's team is, 7-5 would be pretty disappointing.
 

Vegas has proven time and again they know WAY more than me, but I can't imagine doing worse than a push if one bets the over here. I did.
Someone always knows

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In 2019 our Gophs O/U was 7.5. I am extremely Bullish on the Golden Gophers to win at least 8 games in the 2021 regular season.
 




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