Bubble Watch (February 8)

[SelectionSunday]

No bubble games tonight, but here are bubble teams (with RPI in parentheses) on my radar heading into the new week. Some of these are in my current Field of 65, some are not. Remember, the bubble fluctuates daily and week to week. Teams currently leading their conference who otherwise would be a bubble team (i.e. Charlotte, Northeastern, UTEP, Siena, St. Mary's) are not included in the bubble watch. For each team I have indicated whether I have them "in" or "out" this week.

1. Xavier (27) -- IN
2. Texas Tech (32) -- OUT
3. Dayton (33) -- IN
4. Old Dominion (35) -- OUT
5. Wichita State (37) -- OUT
6. Oklahoma State (39) -- OUT
7. Clemson (40) -- IN
8. Louisville (42) -- OUT
9. South Florida (50) -- OUT
10. William & Mary (52) -- OUT
11. VCU (53) -- IN
12. Washington (55) -- OUT
13. Cincinnati (56) -- OUT
14. UConn (57) -- OUT
15. Notre Dame (59) -- OUT
16. Marquette (60) -- IN
17. GOPHERS (61) -- OUT
18. Tulsa (62) -- OUT
19. Virginia Tech (64) -- IN
20. Northwestern (66) -- OUT
21. Mississippi State (69) -- OUT
22. Oklahoma (75) -- OUT
23. Virginia (94) -- OUT

 

[inflectionpoint]

Here is an interesting take that should be key reading for the Gophers as we ponder the possibility of a 10-8 conference record:


A letter sent to Basketball Prospectus:

Here is this year’s. It was written before Northwestern beat Indiana 78-61 yesterday in Evanston.

With nine regular season games remaining, NU still has some work to do to get off the bubble. Meaning the Wildcats’ RPI is currently 61.

Win eight of those nine and things should be great: 23-8 overall and 11-7 in-conference. Sure, that’s not likely, but if the Cats pull off the improbable it should really boost their RPI, right?

No. In such a scenario Northwestern’s RPI will actually fall to 67 under this inane “scheduling is destiny” system.
And if NU miraculously wins all nine remaining games (which, again, won’t actually happen) their RPI will stay about the same. These results are predestined by the fact that the Wildcats will play Iowa, Indiana, and Penn State twice, and Chicago State once. But I defy any of your readers to say that Northwestern is a better team now than they would be if they went 8-1 the rest of the way.

I hope the valuable missionary work that you, Ken Pomeroy, and others have done over the years has appropriately diminished the status of the RPI in the eyes of the selection committee. If Northwestern is excluded from the NCAA tournament based on their Sagarin or Pomeroy ratings, I can accept that. And if they’re excluded because of too few good wins or too many bad losses, I can accept that.

But if Northwestern is excluded on the basis of RPI, I will be angry and will redouble my efforts to see that a better system is used to select tournament teams.

Ben J.

 

[SelectionSunday]

Thanks. The RPI is just one of many tools the Selection Committee uses. A team's individual RPI means very little to me, unless it gets up into the mid-70's or higher. It would be hard to justify taking a team with that poor of a rating.

The RPI's greatest value, in my opinion, is using it to judge how teams have performed vs. the top 25, top 50, top 100, etc. Those numbers give an accurate reflection of how teams have performed vs. quality competition (roughly the top 30% of Division I), while at the same time not giving credence to an opponent simply because of their "brand name" or their big-name coach.

 

[Blizzard]

So what will we have to do to get back in the conversation SS?

 

[SelectionSunday]

To legitimately get back into the conversation, I think the Gophers need to win both games this week.

To legitimately be in the conversation heading into the Big Ten Tournament, I think the Gophers need to be 10-8 heading to Indy, with wins over both Purdue and Bucky. Even that may require another upper-tier win (over Illinois, MSU, OSU, Purdue or Bucky) in Indy.

Still holding firm that 11-7 is "lock city", no matter what happens in Indy.

 

[Art Vandelay]

Run the table at home and win one road game (NU, Michigan, or Illinois). That puts them at 11-7, 20 wins overall, and wins over a pair of top 15 teams....in additon to Butler and OSU before heading to Indy.

 

[Reserve]

Well here's what's left

Thu, Feb 11 Michigan 7:00 pm
Sun, Feb 14 at Northwestern 5:00 pm
Thu, Feb 18 (16) Wisconsin 9:00 pm
Sat, Feb 20 Indiana 8:00 pm
Wed, Feb 24 (6) Purdue 8:30 pm
Sat, Feb 27 at Illinois TBA
Tue, Mar 2 at Michigan 7:00 pm
Sun, Mar 7 Iowa

It can be done.

 

[inflectionpoint]

Thu, Feb 11 Michigan 7:00 pm
Sun, Feb 14 at Northwestern 5:00 pm
Thu, Feb 18 (16) Wisconsin 9:00 pm
Sat, Feb 20 Indiana 8:00 pm
Wed, Feb 24 (6) Purdue 8:30 pm
Sat, Feb 27 at Illinois TBA
Tue, Mar 2 at Michigan 7:00 pm
Sun, Mar 7 Iowa

It can be done.

Upon further inspection the thing that's scary about our final schedule is that 10-8 is most definitely doable, however going 10-8 really doesn't bring much to the table if we mostly win/lose the games we are supposed to. There 4.5 reasonable losses up there. (at mich = .5) So if we went 10-8 but only added say wisky or purdue or even worse merely the at NW game, and finished 10-8 I'm not sure that would give us enough quality wins. We'd end up with something like a 4-10 (at present 3-7) record vs RPI top 100. Despite the nice SOS and hanging tough RPI, I don't think that'll help enough.

As has been stated the wild part (even beyond the historical 11-7 references) is if we add one more game and land at 11-7 it likely is a very quality (signature?) win and locks us in at something around a 9 seed as we finish conference play on a strong note.

Let's hope we can keep these conversations going. Uffda.

 

[Anderson8284]

I preferred the way we qualified in 1997

Alas, that year never happened.......

I do have fond memories of arguing with friends and co-workers down here in DSM about the merits of the Hawks vs. Gophers, and of Andre Wooridge vs. Bobby J.