Bowl projections and thoughts

[Gold Rush]

These last two games will be huge in deciding where the Gophers go. With two wins, the Gophers are probably destined for the Rose Bowl. With two losses, they could fall all the way down to play in the #6 (Holiday Bowl) This does not even include the factor of Ohio St. losing a game and missing out on the BCS. That would drop everyone down one more bowl so it's probably in everyone's best interest they win out. (Unless of course the Gophers are the ones that knocks them off in the Big Ten Championship game!

Here is how I see this playing out:
1. Ohio St. 12-0 (should beat Penn St. and Michigan) --- BCS
2. MINNESOTA 11-1 (should beat Northwestern and hopefully Wisconsin) -- Rose Bowl
3. Penn St. 10-2 (lose to OSU, beat Rutgers) --- Outback Bowl
4. Wisconsin 9-3 (beat Purdue, lose to Minnesota) --- Florida Citrus Bowl
5. Michigan 9-3 (beat Indiana, lose to OSU) --- Gator Bowl
6. Iowa 9-3 (beat Illinois and Nebraska) --- Holiday Bowl
7. Indiana 8-4 (lose to Michigan, beats Purdue) -- Redbox Bowl
8. Illinois 7-5 (lose to Iowa, beats Northwestern) -- Pinstripe Bowl
9. Michigan St. 6-6 (beats Rutgers and Maryland) -- QuickLane Bowl

The real wild card out of all this is of course, the Gophers. If absolute disaster strikes and they lose their last two games, they will be vaulted by a real logjam behind them. You can expect Penn St. Wisconsin, Michigan and Iowa to all launch past them in the pecking order if this plays out the way I see it. Due to bowl contracts, I think they will end up in the Outback Bowl where they have not been. They could end up anywhere in those top 6 bowls (besides the BCS, obviously!)

If they lose to Wisconsin, which is certainly possible, they can kiss the Rose Bowl goodbye but again, I see them in the Outback Bowl. We are very close to playing in the Rose Bowl. We could end up playing on New Year's at 10-2 at a destination such as the Orange Bowl, too. If they win, we obviously are going to be somewhere very very nice and that's the bottom line.

 

[BleedGopher]

Good summary.

To be this close to the Rose Bowl...to be this close to the Rose Bowl...please oh please!!

Go Gophers!!

 

[Otis]

Here is how I see this playing out:
1. Ohio St. 13-0 (should beat Penn St., Michigan and Gophers) --- BCS
2. MINNESOTA 11-2 (should beat Northwestern and hopefully Wisconsin, lose B1G Championship) -- Rose Bowl
3. Penn St. 10-2 (lose to OSU, beat Rutgers) --- Outback Bowl
4. Wisconsin 9-3 (beat Purdue, lose to Minnesota) --- Florida Citrus Bowl
5. Michigan 9-3 (beat Indiana, lose to OSU) --- Gator Bowl
6. Iowa 9-3 (beat Illinois and Nebraska) --- Holiday Bowl
7. Indiana 8-4 (lose to Michigan, beats Purdue) -- Redbox Bowl
8. Illinois 7-5 (lose to Iowa, beats Northwestern) -- Pinstripe Bowl
9. Michigan St. 6-6 (beats Rutgers and Maryland) -- QuickLane Bowl

This would make sense, but Rose Bowl is not obligated to take the runner-up. They can take their choice, so get ready to watch them take a team which travels better than Minnesota and can maximize their take.

 

[BeerFueledFF]

Here is how I see this playing out:
1. Ohio St. 13-0 (should beat Penn St., Michigan and Gophers) --- BCS
2. MINNESOTA 11-2 (should beat Northwestern and hopefully Wisconsin, lose B1G Championship) -- Rose Bowl
3. Penn St. 10-2 (lose to OSU, beat Rutgers) --- Outback Bowl
4. Wisconsin 9-3 (beat Purdue, lose to Minnesota) --- Florida Citrus Bowl
5. Michigan 9-3 (beat Indiana, lose to OSU) --- Gator Bowl
6. Iowa 9-3 (beat Illinois and Nebraska) --- Holiday Bowl
7. Indiana 8-4 (lose to Michigan, beats Purdue) -- Redbox Bowl
8. Illinois 7-5 (lose to Iowa, beats Northwestern) -- Pinstripe Bowl
9. Michigan St. 6-6 (beats Rutgers and Maryland) -- QuickLane Bowl

This would make sense, but Rose Bowl is not obligated to take the runner-up. They can take their choice, so get ready to watch them take a team which travels better than Minnesota and can maximize their take.

If the Rose doesn't take us at 11-2, we likely end up in the Orange Bowl.

 

[BleedGopher]

Here is how I see this playing out:
1. Ohio St. 13-0 (should beat Penn St., Michigan and Gophers) --- BCS
2. MINNESOTA 11-2 (should beat Northwestern and hopefully Wisconsin, lose B1G Championship) -- Rose Bowl
3. Penn St. 10-2 (lose to OSU, beat Rutgers) --- Outback Bowl
4. Wisconsin 9-3 (beat Purdue, lose to Minnesota) --- Florida Citrus Bowl
5. Michigan 9-3 (beat Indiana, lose to OSU) --- Gator Bowl
6. Iowa 9-3 (beat Illinois and Nebraska) --- Holiday Bowl
7. Indiana 8-4 (lose to Michigan, beats Purdue) -- Redbox Bowl
8. Illinois 7-5 (lose to Iowa, beats Northwestern) -- Pinstripe Bowl
9. Michigan St. 6-6 (beats Rutgers and Maryland) -- QuickLane Bowl

This would make sense, but Rose Bowl is not obligated to take the runner-up. They can take their choice, so get ready to watch them take a team which travels better than Minnesota and can maximize their take.

I thought Rose Bowl was locked in to taking the top eligible team in the CFP that is not in the CFP.

Go Gophers!!

 

[MGGopher]

Yup, as far as prognosticating goes, almost everybody has MN beating NW. It then comes down to predictin gthe Wisconsin game. Those who have MN winning that one predict them to the Rose. Those who have them losing predict Wisc to Rose and MN to Outback. So it's obviously a huge game.

ESPN (Schlabach)
Outback Bowl
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
Jan. 1, 1 p.m., ESPN
Schlabach: Auburn vs. Minnesota

ESPN (Bonagura)
Rose Bowl Game presented by Northwestern Mutual
Rose Bowl, Pasadena, California
Jan. 1, 5 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Oregon vs. Minnesota

Watch Stadium (Brett McMurphy)
Outback Bowl – (Big Ten vs. SEC)
Projection: Minnesota vs. Texas A&M

CFN
Rose Bowl
Wednesday, January 1
Projection: Minnesota vs. Oregon

CBS (Jerry Palm)
Citrus Bowl
Jan 1, Orlando, FL
Minnesota vs. Auburn

247 Sports
Rose Bowl
When: Jan. 1, 2020
Where: Pasadena, Calif.
Projected matchup: Minnesota vs. Utah

Athlon Sports
Rose Bowl
When: Jan. 1, 2020
Where: Pasadena, Calif.
Projected matchup: Minnesota vs. Utah

Sporting News
Rose Bowl
When: Jan. 1, 2020
Where: Pasadena, Calif.
Projected matchup: Minnesota vs. Utah

Sports Illustrated
Orange Bowl, Miami Gardens (Dec. 30, 8 p.m., ESPN)
ACC vs. Big Ten, SEC or Notre Dame
Wake Forest vs. Minnesota

 

[MGGopher]

I thought Rose Bowl was locked in to taking the top eligible team in the CFP that is not in the CFP.

Go Gophers!!

That is, indeed, the case. There's a weird scenario in which PSU ends up ranked higher than MN and goes to the Rose Bowl. Perhaps they lose a close game to OSU next week and finish 10-2. MN beats Wisconsin close but gets blown out by OSU to finish 11-2. PSU could finish ranked like 10 or 11 with MN close behind. The Orange then gets to decide if they want to take a B1G team. If they do, it's likely MN. If they don't, the Citrus gets a B1G team, although MN is likely to fall to the Outback since they've been to the Citrus in this contract cycle, but have never played in the Outback.

It's all so convoluted. How about Minnesota just wins out to make it easy on all of us?

 

[RodentRampage]

Who decides which is the next best team in the Big Ten? Does the Rose Bowl decide, or they they use rankings? If the Rose Bowl gets to decide, they might decide an 11-2 Gophers team is a more compelling story than an 11-2 Penn State team. If anyone can sell the Gophers' story, it's Fleck.

 

[Taji34]

That is, indeed, the case. There's a weird scenario in which PSU ends up ranked higher than MN and goes to the Rose Bowl. Perhaps they lose a close game to OSU next week and finish 10-2. MN beats Wisconsin close but gets blown out by OSU to finish 11-2. PSU could finish ranked like 10 or 11 with MN close behind. The Orange then gets to decide if they want to take a B1G team. If they do, it's likely MN. If they don't, the Citrus gets a B1G team, although MN is likely to fall to the Outback since they've been to the Citrus in this contract cycle, but have never played in the Outback.

It's all so convoluted. How about Minnesota just wins out to make it easy on all of us?

This is incorrect. The only written rule is they get the Big 10 champ if that team is not in the playoffs. I posted about this a while ago, I may need to find it again and copy it here.

 

[MaxyJR1]

Who decides which is the next best team in the Big Ten? Does the Rose Bowl decide, or they they use rankings? If the Rose Bowl gets to decide, they might decide an 11-2 Gophers team is a more compelling story than an 11-2 Penn State team. If anyone can sell the Gophers' story, it's Fleck.

I believe it's whoever is ranked higher in final CFP rankings

 

[Taji34]

Who decides which is the next best team in the Big Ten? Does the Rose Bowl decide, or they they use rankings? If the Rose Bowl gets to decide, they might decide an 11-2 Gophers team is a more compelling story than an 11-2 Penn State team. If anyone can sell the Gophers' story, it's Fleck.

Every year it's been applicable it has been the second highest ranked Big 10 team according to CFP rankings.

 

[OldBob53]

I'm thinking 9-3 will get us a respectable invite; 10-2 on New Years Day, and I suppose 11-1 plus a loss to OSU might get us the Rose Bowl.

We are not going to beat OSU, if we advance to the championship, case closed.. But a win vs. NW gets us to 10-- ahead of most expectations preseason.

 

[Hotdish]

I'm thinking 9-3 will get us a respectable invite; 10-2 on New Years Day, and I suppose 11-1 plus a loss to OSU might get us the Rose Bowl.

We are not going to beat OSU, if we advance to the championship, case closed.. But a win vs. NW gets us to 10-- ahead of most expectations preseason.

 

[RodentRampage]

I'm thinking 9-3 will get us a respectable invite; 10-2 on New Years Day, and I suppose 11-1 plus a loss to OSU might get us the Rose Bowl.

We are not going to beat OSU, if we advance to the championship, case closed.. But a win vs. NW gets us to 10-- ahead of most expectations preseason.

Case closed, huh? I guess we might as well not even play the game. After all, upsets never happen, do they?

 

[Lakeville Goldy]

Who decides which is the next best team in the Big Ten? Does the Rose Bowl decide, or they they use rankings? If the Rose Bowl gets to decide, they might decide an 11-2 Gophers team is a more compelling story than an 11-2 Penn State team. If anyone can sell the Gophers' story, it's Fleck.

The Rose Bowl does. All non-CFP Bowls are assigned by the B1G based off requests from the Bowl partners, but the CFP Bowls pick whomever they want.

2019_Bowl_Determination_Procedures (PDF) - Big Ten Conference

bigten.org

In the past rankings were used to make the decision, but under the current rules they technically don't have to.

I would think if they have equal records and similar rankings, the division champ would get the nod, but who knows.

Of course, the only way both MN and PSU could be 11-2 is if they meet in the B1G championship game, which probably makes it a moot point. I'm assuming you meant 10-2 PSU. Which would be an interesting dilemma for the Rose Bowl.

 

[OldBob53]

I'd like to fly to the Moon and I'd like the Gophers to win the National Championship after beating OSU, Clemson and Alabama/LSU.....but I'm already satisfied with 9 wins, hopefully 10, perhaps 11 if we can beat the Badgers.

Some on these boards seem intent on setting-up our beloved 13-striped ground squirrels for failure, as if they are failures if they can't beat Tom Brady and the Patriots. These commenters are trolls and should be ignored.

 

[gophereric30]

Would be a dumb decision by rose bowl to take anyone other than the gophers if we beat wisconsin. Everyone that is a gopher fan would be wanting to go to pasadena(including myself) if we were 11-2. Minnesota and an 11-2 PJ Fleck would be a huge draw. Minnesota has been a great story so far this year. I have friends that have all gone to different Big Ten schools that are all excited for Minnesota the past couple of weeks. Obviously, lets go 12-1 0r 11-2 before we all get excited and make them make that choice.

 

[Sports_Realist]

Some of the games we consider New Year's Day bowls aren't taking place on New Year's Day.

The CFP Semifinals are on Saturday December 28, 2019 at the Fiesta Bowl and Peach Bowl, one in the late afternoon and the other in prime time. The Cotton Bowl is also that day in the early afternoon.

The Orange Bowl is on December 30, 2019 in the spot normally occupied by Monday Night Football.

Only four games are slated for January 1, 2019. The Citrus Bowl and Outback Bowl kickoff in the early afternoon. The Rose Bowl is in the late afternoon. The Sugar Bowl is in prime time.

The Gator Bowl is on January 2, 2019 in Prime Time.

Would an Orange Bowl or Gator Bowl bid feel as special given the dates of the games?

 

[BeerFueledFF]

Some of the games we consider New Year's Day bowls aren't taking place on New Year's Day.

The CFP Semifinals are on Saturday December 28, 2019 at the Fiesta Bowl and Peach Bowl, one in the late afternoon and the other in prime time. The Cotton Bowl is also that day in the early afternoon.

The Orange Bowl is on December 30, 2019 in the spot normally occupied by Monday Night Football.

Only four games are slated for January 1, 2019. The Citrus Bowl and Outback Bowl kickoff in the early afternoon. The Rose Bowl is in the late afternoon. The Sugar Bowl is in prime time.

The Gator Bowl is on January 2, 2019 in Prime Time.

Would an Orange Bowl or Gator Bowl bid feel as special given the dates of the games?

I'd still be stoked for the Orange Bowl, given it is a NY6 bowl in prime time.

Gator bowl is low on my list of wants bowl wise, especially given the Jan. 2nd date.

 

[gophernut79]

There's no way they send Michigan State to Detroit. Even if ILL has a better record, TV ratings will dictate Michigan State gets a better bowl than an Illinois team that deserves it. Bank on it.

 

[BeerFueledFF]

There's no way they send Michigan State to Detroit. Even if ILL has a better record, TV ratings will dictate Michigan State gets a better bowl than an Illinois team that deserves it. Bank on it.

Well, hopefully MSU loses to Maryland or something, cause I want the Fighting Lovie's to get a decent bowl game this season.

 

[howeda7]

This is incorrect. The only written rule is they get the Big 10 champ if that team is not in the playoffs. I posted about this a while ago, I may need to find it again and copy it here.

I hope that's the case. If the Orange and Rose are both taking B1G teams, it makes much more sense for PSU go to the Orange Bowl. They will travel equally well to either and were just to the Rose 3 years ago. MN will bring twice as many to Pasadena as Miami IMO.

 

[MGGopher]

This is incorrect. The only written rule is they get the Big 10 champ if that team is not in the playoffs. I posted about this a while ago, I may need to find it again and copy it here.

Thanks dude, you're right. Not sure where I heard that, but I know it's been multiple times in multiple places, probably because some other conferences do auto bids based on rankings.

Apparently for the Rose, the way it works is they select the B1G team they want when the conference champ goes to the CFP. The Orange then gets the highest ranked team remaining of the SEC, B1G, and ND.

 

[Taji34]

Found the post I had made a little while ago, here it is (Updated):

From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bids_to_college_bowl_games#Big_Ten_Conference:

2019:

NOTE: Bowls submit preferences to conference, and conference actually assigns schools to bowls. Other than the Rose Bowl, all Big Ten bowls have agreed to have at least five different schools in their bowl over the 2014–19 contract cycle. Also, no school will appear in same bowl back-to-back years.

#1 College Football Playoff. Champion goes to Rose Bowl if not selected for playoffs. The Rose Bowl gets filled by a Big Ten team if champion is in the playoffs
The Citrus Bowl versus SEC
The Outback Bowl versus SEC
The Holiday Bowl versus Pac-12
The Music City Bowl or the Gator Bowl versus SEC. From 2014–19, the Music City and Gator will each get Big Ten team three times. No Big Ten will appear in either bowl more than once each.
The Pinstripe Bowl versus ACC
The Redbox Bowl versus Pac-12
The Quick Lane Bowl versus ACC
The First Responder Bowl versus Conference USA
The Armed Forces Bowl versus Mountain West

And from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rose_Bowl_Game#College_Football_Playoff

The BCS was replaced in 2014 by the College Football Playoff, which selects four teams for two national semifinal games, leading to a championship game. As part of the arrangement, the Rose Bowl game functions as a semifinal playoff game every three years. In years when the Rose Bowl is not hosting a semifinal, it takes the Pac-12 and Big Ten champions, unless one or both teams qualify for the semifinals, in which case they are replaced by another team from the same conference.

What this all means is:

1. The Big Ten champion goes to the Rose bowl automatically when it is not a playoff semi-final. So if OSU wins the conference over us, but does not make the playoffs, they go to the rose bowl. Only way I see this happening is if they drop a game before the conference championship. If they are undefeated and then beat us, they are in the CFP as an undefeated P5 no if, ands, or buts.

2. In the case OSU is in the playoffs, the bowls then submit their preferences and then the Big Ten sets the bowl games. What this has effectively meant is the "Second best" Big Ten team goes to the Rose bowl, since the Big Ten wants to have the best chance at winning that bowl game. In all the years of CFP when the Rose bowl was not a semi final, and the Big Ten Champion was in the playoffs, this has gone to the second highest Big Ten team in the CFP rankings. This, however, is not codified anywhere in the rules:

• 2015 Rose Bowl was a playoff game, not Big Ten Team.
• 2016 Rose Bowl: #6 Iowa (Big Ten West Division Champ and Second Highest rated Big Ten Team behind #3 MSU in the playoffs)
• 2017 Rose Bowl: #5 Penn State (Big Ten Champs, but also Second Highest rated Big Ten Team behind #3OSU in the playoffs)
• 2018 Rose Bowl was a playoff game, not Big Ten Team.
• 2019 Rose Bowl: #6 OSU (Big Ten Champs, highest ranked Big Ten team)

What this all means is, if we win the west division, but lose the Big Ten championship we have a pretty good chance at the rose bowl as long as we are the 2nd highest ranked big ten team. Things that screw that up:

• Big Ten Champ does not receive a playoff bid
• We are not the 2nd highest ranked big ten team after the Big Ten Championship. I could see this happening potentially. If we win the west, then lose to OSU, we wind up 11-2, with PSU being 10-2. We have one more win, and the head to head win, but also lost to Iowa who PSU beat. In the eyes of the CFP it may come down to who played OSU "better". Whoever did that would likely be ranked higher.

 

[bleedsmaroonandgold]

I'd like to fly to the Moon and I'd like the Gophers to win the National Championship after beating OSU, Clemson and Alabama/LSU.....but I'm already satisfied with 9 wins, hopefully 10, perhaps 11 if we can beat the Badgers.

Some on these boards seem intent on setting-up our beloved 13-striped ground squirrels for failure, as if they are failures if they can't beat Tom Brady and the Patriots. These commenters are trolls and should be ignored.

No one is saying we are terrible if we dont beat OSU. I think most on here agree it would probably be a blowout in the wrong way. But it is hyperbole the other direction to say a fringe top ten team has no chance to win its conference. South Carolina (much worse than gophers) beat Georgia.

 

[1983]

If the Rose doesn't take us at 11-2, we likely end up in the Orange Bowl.

If we are 11-2 with our second to OSU, we are a lock for the Rose bowl. Penn State at 2 losses will go to the Orange bowl.

 

[BTChamp]

It's nice we're not talking about sneaking into the Detroit Poisoned Water Bowl, or the Yankee Bowl. The Holiday would actually be somewhat of a disappointment this year. Much better conversations than years past.

 

[MGGopher]

It's nice we're not talking about sneaking into the Detroit Poisoned Water Bowl, or the Yankee Bowl. The Holiday would actually be somewhat of a disappointment this year. Much better conversations than years past.

Yeah, it's pretty cool isn't it?! Heck, the Outback would be a disappointment -- and that's the #3 B1G bowl and that Gophers have never received an invite! What a season. I'm so excited to see it play out!