BleedGopher
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per Hickey:
Michigan and Minnesota were joined at the hip in this year’s non-conference schedule.
If NCAA Football ’22 existed as a video game, the first 3 games for both teams would have been played on the Junior Varsity setting. Minnesota rolled New Mexico State, Western Illinois and Colorado by a combined margin of 149-17. Michigan drubbed Colorado State, Hawaii and UConn by a collective 166-17.
Week 4 was the soonest we’d be able to gauge anything about either team.
For AP pollsters, Minnesota’s 34-7 win at Michigan State was finally enough to buy in on the Golden Gophers. Minnesota makes its 2022 debut at No. 21.
Michigan, which was finally tested against Maryland, hung on for a 34-27 win and maintained the No. 4 spot nationally.
Based on both performances, it seems dubious to me that there’s a 17-team gap between the Wolverines and Gophers. There might not be any gap, actually. Objectively speaking, both teams should probably be ranked somewhere around 10th.
But when you’re battling the bias of history — good for the Wolverines, bad for the Gophers — these corrections tend not to show up in the polls until mid-October at the soonest.
They certainly are capable. But Michigan needs to beat a ranked opponent or win a road game before being considered a valid Top-5 team. That’s how historically bad Michigan’s non-conference slate is this season. It has a chance to hurt the Wolverines in the eyes of the College Football Playoff committee when that time comes.
Here’s what each opponent has been up to:
Colorado State
Hawaii
Connecticut
Michigan’s 3 non-conference opponents are a combined 0-11 against FBS opponents. Their lone wins are over struggling FCS teams. And the other team lost to an FCS school by 31 points.
No. 5 Clemson has proven itself with a road win at Wake Forest. No. 6 USC did the same with a road win at Oregon State. Even No. 11 Penn State has proven far more about itself than Michigan with road wins at Auburn and Purdue.
The Maryland win was not a compelling enough piece of evidence to deem Michigan a legit Playoff contender. The score was even after Michigan was gifted a touchdown in the first 7 seconds thanks to the opening kickoff bouncing off the return man’s helmet.
It could be that Maryland is itself a legit Top 25 team. And in turn, Michigan may prove its top-5 bona fides against Iowa and Penn State over the next 3 weeks. But this is about right now.
And Minnesota looked no less than Michigan’s equal in its Saturday slaughter of Michigan State. Maybe even a little better.
New Mexico State
Western Illinois
Colorado
For reasons beyond comprehension, Colorado AD Rick George scheduled 2 non-conference road games (Air Force and Minnesota) while playing a Power 5 opponent in the other non-conference game. So it’s possible the Buffs have 3-9 talent trapped in an 0-12 body.
Thankfully, we can put all of that behind us at this point. This is no longer about Charmin-soft non-conference schedules, but what each team does in Big Ten play.
And in that regard, Minnesota unquestionably has a better resume right now. Michigan State clearly isn’t what it was a year ago, but to throttle the Spartans in East Lansing is a feat. Minnesota hasn’t beaten Michigan State by 27 points since 1958.
And that last sentence is illustrative as to why Minnesota finds itself down at No. 21. Fleck led the Gophers to a No. 10 national finish in 2019, but prior to that Minnesota hadn’t finished in the Top 10 since 1962. Minnesota just isn’t a name that sticks in the forefront of voters’ minds like Michigan does.
Unfortunately, there’s no Battle for the Little Brown Jug this year to demonstrate just how close these teams likely are on the field. Perhaps we’ll get one in Indianapolis. If we don’t, it’s on the Gophers to keep opening eyes to their legitimacy.
saturdaytradition.com
Go Gophers!!
Michigan and Minnesota were joined at the hip in this year’s non-conference schedule.
If NCAA Football ’22 existed as a video game, the first 3 games for both teams would have been played on the Junior Varsity setting. Minnesota rolled New Mexico State, Western Illinois and Colorado by a combined margin of 149-17. Michigan drubbed Colorado State, Hawaii and UConn by a collective 166-17.
Week 4 was the soonest we’d be able to gauge anything about either team.
For AP pollsters, Minnesota’s 34-7 win at Michigan State was finally enough to buy in on the Golden Gophers. Minnesota makes its 2022 debut at No. 21.
Michigan, which was finally tested against Maryland, hung on for a 34-27 win and maintained the No. 4 spot nationally.
Based on both performances, it seems dubious to me that there’s a 17-team gap between the Wolverines and Gophers. There might not be any gap, actually. Objectively speaking, both teams should probably be ranked somewhere around 10th.
But when you’re battling the bias of history — good for the Wolverines, bad for the Gophers — these corrections tend not to show up in the polls until mid-October at the soonest.
Michigan doesn’t deserve No. 4 — yet
The Wolverines are still coasting on last year’s accomplishments while also giving voters little reason to think they aren’t capable of another CFP run this season.They certainly are capable. But Michigan needs to beat a ranked opponent or win a road game before being considered a valid Top-5 team. That’s how historically bad Michigan’s non-conference slate is this season. It has a chance to hurt the Wolverines in the eyes of the College Football Playoff committee when that time comes.
Here’s what each opponent has been up to:
Colorado State
- Lost to Michigan, 51-7
- Lost to Middle Tennessee State, 34-19
- Lost to Washington State, 38-7
- Lost to FCS Sacramento State, 41-10
Hawaii
- Lost to Vanderbilt, 63-10
- Lost to Western Kentucky, 49-17
- Lost to Michigan, 56-10
- Beat FCS Duquesne, 24-14
- Lost to New Mexico State, 45-26
Connecticut
- Lost to Utah State, 31-20
- Beat FCS Central Connecticut State, 28-3
- Lost to Syracuse, 48-14
- Lost to Michigan, 59-0
- Lost to NC State, 41-10
Michigan’s 3 non-conference opponents are a combined 0-11 against FBS opponents. Their lone wins are over struggling FCS teams. And the other team lost to an FCS school by 31 points.
No. 5 Clemson has proven itself with a road win at Wake Forest. No. 6 USC did the same with a road win at Oregon State. Even No. 11 Penn State has proven far more about itself than Michigan with road wins at Auburn and Purdue.
The Maryland win was not a compelling enough piece of evidence to deem Michigan a legit Playoff contender. The score was even after Michigan was gifted a touchdown in the first 7 seconds thanks to the opening kickoff bouncing off the return man’s helmet.
It could be that Maryland is itself a legit Top 25 team. And in turn, Michigan may prove its top-5 bona fides against Iowa and Penn State over the next 3 weeks. But this is about right now.
And Minnesota looked no less than Michigan’s equal in its Saturday slaughter of Michigan State. Maybe even a little better.
Minnesota makes a statement
Before Michigan fans can say “What about Minnesota’s schedule?” — yeah, it’s bad too. But not quite as bad as Michigan’s.New Mexico State
- Lost to Nevada, 23-13
- Lost to Minnesota, 38-0
- Lost to UTEP, 20-13
- Lost to Wisconsin, 66-7
- Beat Hawaii, 45-26
Western Illinois
- Lost to Minnesota, 62-10
- Lost to FCS Southern Utah, 17-10
- Lost to FCS Tennessee-Martin, 42-25
- Lost to FCS Northern Iowa, 52-17
Colorado
- Lost to TCU, 38-13
- Lost to Air Force, 41-10
- Lost to Minnesota, 49-7
- Lost to UCLA, 45-17
For reasons beyond comprehension, Colorado AD Rick George scheduled 2 non-conference road games (Air Force and Minnesota) while playing a Power 5 opponent in the other non-conference game. So it’s possible the Buffs have 3-9 talent trapped in an 0-12 body.
Thankfully, we can put all of that behind us at this point. This is no longer about Charmin-soft non-conference schedules, but what each team does in Big Ten play.
And in that regard, Minnesota unquestionably has a better resume right now. Michigan State clearly isn’t what it was a year ago, but to throttle the Spartans in East Lansing is a feat. Minnesota hasn’t beaten Michigan State by 27 points since 1958.
And that last sentence is illustrative as to why Minnesota finds itself down at No. 21. Fleck led the Gophers to a No. 10 national finish in 2019, but prior to that Minnesota hadn’t finished in the Top 10 since 1962. Minnesota just isn’t a name that sticks in the forefront of voters’ minds like Michigan does.
Unfortunately, there’s no Battle for the Little Brown Jug this year to demonstrate just how close these teams likely are on the field. Perhaps we’ll get one in Indianapolis. If we don’t, it’s on the Gophers to keep opening eyes to their legitimacy.
B1G Monday Morning: Minnesota is closer to Michigan than pollsters think
Saturday Tradition columnist Alex Hickey takes a comprehensive look around Week 4 in the Big Ten, starting with underrated Minnesota.
saturdaytradition.com
Go Gophers!!
