SelectionSunday
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Some more statistical data on teams that have made the NCAA Tournament via the at-large route.
2010 At-Larges (193-190, .5039) vs. NCAA Qualifiers (Regular Season Only)
Vanderbilt (6-2, .7500)
Syracuse (11-4, .7333)
New Mexico (8-3, .7272)
Purdue (8-4, .6666)
Richmond (6-3, .6666)
Kansas State (9-5, .6428)
Baylor (8-5, .6153)
Pitt (8-5, .6153)
Wake Forest (6-4, .6000)
Wisconsin (7-5, .5833)
Notre Dame (5-4, .5555)
Michigan State (7-6, .5384)
Villanova (7-6, .5384)
Georgetown (9-8, .5294)
Clemson (6-6, .5000)
Oklahoma State (6-6, .5000)
UNLV (5-5, .5000)
Georgia Tech (6-7, .4615)
MINNESOTA (6-7, .4615)
Maryland (5-6, .4545)
BYU (4-5, .4444)
Texas A&M (7-9, .4375)
Gonzaga (3-4, .4285)
UTEP (3-4, .4285)
Louisville (5-7, .4166)
Missouri (5-7, .4166)
Texas (5-7, .4166)
Tennessee (4-6, .4000)
Utah State (2-3, .4000)
Florida State (4-7, .3636)
Cal (3-6, .3333)
Marquette (4-9, .3076)
Florida (3-8, .2727)
Xavier (2-7, .2222)
At-Larges Winning Percentage vs. NCAA Qualifiers (circa 2007-08 season)
1. 2008-09 – 217-201, .5191
2. 2009-10 – 193-190, .5039
3. 2007-08 – 203-200, .5037
5 Best At-Larges vs. NCAA Qualifiers
1. Wake Forest – 10-2, .8333 (2008-09)
T2. Dayton – 4-1, .8000 (2008-09)
T2. South Alabama – 4-1, .8000 (2007-08)
4. Pitt – 10-3, .7692 (2008-09)
5. Michigan State – 13-4, .7647 (2008-09)
5 Worst At-Larges vs. NCAA Qualifiers
1. Xavier – 2-7, .2222 (2009-10)
T2. Florida – 3-8, .2727 (2009-10)
T2 Kansas State – 3-8, .2727 (2007-08)
T4. BYU – 2-5, .2857 (2007-08)
T4. Oklahoma State – 4-10, .2857 (2008-09)
T4. Wisconsin – 4-10, .2857 (2008-09)
Most Regular-Season Games Played vs. NCAA Qualifiers
T1. Michigan State – 17, 13-4 (2008-09)
T1. Washington State – 17, 10-7 (2007-08)
T1. Georgetown – 17, 9-8 (2009-10)
T1. Michigan – 17, 6-11 (2008-09)
T5. Tennessee – 16, 12-4 (2007-08)
T5. Texas – 16, 12-4 (2007-08)
T5. Washington – 16, 10-6 (2008-09)
T5. Illinois – 16, 9-7 (2008-09)
T5. Ohio State – 16, 7-9 (2008-09)
T5. Texas A&M – 16, 7-9 (2009-10)
T5. Arizona – 16, 6-10 (2007-08)
Tidbits
(1) In each of the last two seasons, the at-large team with the best winning percentage vs. NCAA qualifiers throughout the regular season was dumped in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. In 2008-09 it was Wake Forest (10-2), this past season it was Vanderbilt (6-2).
(2) Conversely, in each of the last two seasons, the at-large teams with the worst winning percentage vs. NCAA qualifiers during the regular season all won at least one game in the NCAA tourney. In 2008-09, at-larges Oklahoma State & Wisconsin had the worst record (4-10) vs. NCAA qualifiers yet both advanced to the second round. This past season -- and this caught me by surprise -- Xavier had the worst record (2-7) vs. NCAA qualifiers but went on to advance to the Sweet 16. Xavier's winning percentage (22.2%) vs. NCAA qualifiers is the worst among at-large selections since the 2007-08 season. If anything, what that tells me is the Selection Committee has had a good eye for identifying teams that, on paper, don't really have that impressive of a NCAA Tournament resume.
(3) Two teams that didn't make the NCAA Tournament this past season were actually quite impressive vs. NCAA qualifiers. USC (#112 in the RPI) banned itself from the NCAA, but that didn't stop the Men of Troy from going 6-3 vs. NCAA qualifiers. Even more impressive, Sidney Lowe's NC State squad (#98 in the RPI) was 7-7 vs. NCAA qualifiers, including a win at Marquette. I expect the Wolfpack to be a factor in the ACC in 2010-11 and would be delighted if they're paired up with the Gophers in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge @ Williams Arena.
Projecting At-Larges (1991-92 through 2009-10)
1991-92: 33/34
1992-93: 31/34
1993-94: 30/34
1994-95: 30/34
1995-96: 33/34
1996-97: 31/34
1997-98: 30/34
1998-99: 31/34
1999-00: 32/34
2000-01: 34/34 (perfect)
2001-02: 33/34
2002-03: 33/34
2003-04: 31/34
2004-05: 32/34
2005-06: 31/34
2006-07: 32/34
2007-08: 33/34
2008-09: 34/34 (perfect)
2009-10: 33/34
TOTALS: 607/646 (93.96%)
LAST 5 YEARS: 163/170 (95.88%)
2010 At-Larges (193-190, .5039) vs. NCAA Qualifiers (Regular Season Only)
Vanderbilt (6-2, .7500)
Syracuse (11-4, .7333)
New Mexico (8-3, .7272)
Purdue (8-4, .6666)
Richmond (6-3, .6666)
Kansas State (9-5, .6428)
Baylor (8-5, .6153)
Pitt (8-5, .6153)
Wake Forest (6-4, .6000)
Wisconsin (7-5, .5833)
Notre Dame (5-4, .5555)
Michigan State (7-6, .5384)
Villanova (7-6, .5384)
Georgetown (9-8, .5294)
Clemson (6-6, .5000)
Oklahoma State (6-6, .5000)
UNLV (5-5, .5000)
Georgia Tech (6-7, .4615)
MINNESOTA (6-7, .4615)
Maryland (5-6, .4545)
BYU (4-5, .4444)
Texas A&M (7-9, .4375)
Gonzaga (3-4, .4285)
UTEP (3-4, .4285)
Louisville (5-7, .4166)
Missouri (5-7, .4166)
Texas (5-7, .4166)
Tennessee (4-6, .4000)
Utah State (2-3, .4000)
Florida State (4-7, .3636)
Cal (3-6, .3333)
Marquette (4-9, .3076)
Florida (3-8, .2727)
Xavier (2-7, .2222)
At-Larges Winning Percentage vs. NCAA Qualifiers (circa 2007-08 season)
1. 2008-09 – 217-201, .5191
2. 2009-10 – 193-190, .5039
3. 2007-08 – 203-200, .5037
5 Best At-Larges vs. NCAA Qualifiers
1. Wake Forest – 10-2, .8333 (2008-09)
T2. Dayton – 4-1, .8000 (2008-09)
T2. South Alabama – 4-1, .8000 (2007-08)
4. Pitt – 10-3, .7692 (2008-09)
5. Michigan State – 13-4, .7647 (2008-09)
5 Worst At-Larges vs. NCAA Qualifiers
1. Xavier – 2-7, .2222 (2009-10)
T2. Florida – 3-8, .2727 (2009-10)
T2 Kansas State – 3-8, .2727 (2007-08)
T4. BYU – 2-5, .2857 (2007-08)
T4. Oklahoma State – 4-10, .2857 (2008-09)
T4. Wisconsin – 4-10, .2857 (2008-09)
Most Regular-Season Games Played vs. NCAA Qualifiers
T1. Michigan State – 17, 13-4 (2008-09)
T1. Washington State – 17, 10-7 (2007-08)
T1. Georgetown – 17, 9-8 (2009-10)
T1. Michigan – 17, 6-11 (2008-09)
T5. Tennessee – 16, 12-4 (2007-08)
T5. Texas – 16, 12-4 (2007-08)
T5. Washington – 16, 10-6 (2008-09)
T5. Illinois – 16, 9-7 (2008-09)
T5. Ohio State – 16, 7-9 (2008-09)
T5. Texas A&M – 16, 7-9 (2009-10)
T5. Arizona – 16, 6-10 (2007-08)
Tidbits
(1) In each of the last two seasons, the at-large team with the best winning percentage vs. NCAA qualifiers throughout the regular season was dumped in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. In 2008-09 it was Wake Forest (10-2), this past season it was Vanderbilt (6-2).
(2) Conversely, in each of the last two seasons, the at-large teams with the worst winning percentage vs. NCAA qualifiers during the regular season all won at least one game in the NCAA tourney. In 2008-09, at-larges Oklahoma State & Wisconsin had the worst record (4-10) vs. NCAA qualifiers yet both advanced to the second round. This past season -- and this caught me by surprise -- Xavier had the worst record (2-7) vs. NCAA qualifiers but went on to advance to the Sweet 16. Xavier's winning percentage (22.2%) vs. NCAA qualifiers is the worst among at-large selections since the 2007-08 season. If anything, what that tells me is the Selection Committee has had a good eye for identifying teams that, on paper, don't really have that impressive of a NCAA Tournament resume.
(3) Two teams that didn't make the NCAA Tournament this past season were actually quite impressive vs. NCAA qualifiers. USC (#112 in the RPI) banned itself from the NCAA, but that didn't stop the Men of Troy from going 6-3 vs. NCAA qualifiers. Even more impressive, Sidney Lowe's NC State squad (#98 in the RPI) was 7-7 vs. NCAA qualifiers, including a win at Marquette. I expect the Wolfpack to be a factor in the ACC in 2010-11 and would be delighted if they're paired up with the Gophers in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge @ Williams Arena.
Projecting At-Larges (1991-92 through 2009-10)
1991-92: 33/34
1992-93: 31/34
1993-94: 30/34
1994-95: 30/34
1995-96: 33/34
1996-97: 31/34
1997-98: 30/34
1998-99: 31/34
1999-00: 32/34
2000-01: 34/34 (perfect)
2001-02: 33/34
2002-03: 33/34
2003-04: 31/34
2004-05: 32/34
2005-06: 31/34
2006-07: 32/34
2007-08: 33/34
2008-09: 34/34 (perfect)
2009-10: 33/34
TOTALS: 607/646 (93.96%)
LAST 5 YEARS: 163/170 (95.88%)