8 Weeks Shy of Selection Sunday, the Big East Looks Like A Big Beast

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SelectionSunday

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No frills, keeping it simple with Week #11 of the college basketball season now in the books. We are 8 weeks shy of Selection Sunday. … the Madness will be here in the blink of an eye.

The automatic qualifiers from multiple-bid conferences are listed first. The automatic qualifier is the team with the best conference record (i.e. 2-0 is better than 1-0) or, in the event of a tie, the best NET ranking.

WEEK #11 FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION (through Jan. 20)
America East (1): UMass-Lowell (111)

American (3): Charlotte (102), FAU (29), Memphis (48)

ACC (4): North Carolina (7), Duke (19), Clemson (33), Wake Forest (42)

ASUN (1): Eastern Kentucky (221)

Atlantic 10 (1): Dayton (15)

Big East (8): UConn (8), Creighton (11), Marquette (17), Villanova (38), Saint John’s (41), Xaiver (43), Providence (57), Seton Hall (60)

Big Sky (1): Eastern Washington (112)

Big South (1): High Point (117)

Big Ten (6): Wisconsin (13), Purdue (2), Illinois (12), Michigan State (24), Nebraska (57), Northwestern (77)

Big XII (8): Texas Tech (35), Houston (1), BYU (5), Iowa State (10), Kansas (14), Baylor (16), Oklahoma (23), Kansas State (71)

Big West (1): UC-Davis (140)

Colonial (1): Drexel (98)

Conference USA (1): Louisiana Tech (87)

Horizon (1): Oakland (132)

Ivy (1): Princeton (31)

MAAC (1): Saint Peter’s (168)

MAC (1): Akron (85)

MEAC (1): Delaware State (304)

Missouri Valley (1): Drake (44)

Mountain West (5): Utah State (27), San Diego State (20), New Mexico (25), Colorado State (26), Boise State (51)

NEC (1): Central Connecticut (235)

OVC (1): Morehead State (109)

Pac 12 (3): Oregon (58), Arizona (3), Utah (21)

Patriot (1): Lafayette (303)

SEC (7): Auburn (6), Tennessee (4), Alabama (9), Kentucky (18), Texas A&M (39), Mississippi State (40), South Carolina (61)

SoCon (1): Samford (80)

Southland (1): McNeese (65)

SWAC (1): Alabama State (269)

Summit (1): South Dakota State (148)

Sun Belt (1): Appalachian State (72)

WCC (1): Saint Mary’s (22)

WAC (1): Grand Canyon (49)
___________________________
Last 4 In: Michigan State (24), Wake Forest (42), Xavier (43), Northwestern (77)

First 4 Out: Indiana State (28), TCU (37), Virginia Tech (52), Ole Miss (70)

Dirty Dozen to Watch: Gonzaga (30), SMU (32), Colorado (34), Cincinnati (36), Florida (45), Ohio State (46), Virginia (47), Iowa (50), Nevada (56), Texas (59), James Madison (62), NC State (78)

Non-Power 6 At-Large Bids (6): San Diego State (20), New Mexico (25), Colorado State (26), FAU (29), Memphis (48), Boise State (51)

Moving In (17): Alabama State, Appalachian State, Central Connecticut, Charlotte, Delaware State, Drake, High Point, Kansas State, Louisiana Tech, Morehead State, New Mexico, Providence, South Dakota State, Texas Tech, UC-Davis, UMass-Lowell, Xavier

Dropping Out (17): Indiana State, Merrimack, Miami-Florida, Nevada, NCCU, Ohio State, Ole Miss, St. Thomas/Omaha, Sam Houston, Southern U, TCU, Troy, UC-Irvine, Vermont, Virginia Tech, Western Illinois, Winthrop

BIG TEN POWER RANKINGS
1 Purdue (17-2)
2 Wisconsin (14-4)
3 Illinois (13-4)
4 Nebraska (14-5)
5 Northwestern (13-5)
6 Michigan State (11-7)
7 Iowa (11-7)
8 Maryland (11-7)
9 Ohio State (13-5)
10 Minnesota (12-6)
11 Rutgers (10-7)
12 Penn State (9-10)
13 Indiana (12-7)
14 Michigan (7-11)

SUMMIT LEAGUE POWER RANKINGS
1 South Dakota State (8-9)
2 St. Thomas (10-7)
3 Denver (8-8)
4 North Dakota (8-10)
5 South Dakota (6-11)
6 Omaha (6-11)
7 North Dakota State (6-11)
8 Kansas City (5-12)
9 Oral Roberts (5-11)

STATE OF MINNESOTA IN THE RANKINGS
NET: Minnesota #99, St. Thomas #138
KenPom: Minnesota #94, St. Thomas #137
Haslametrics: Minnesota #80, St. Thomas #110
 
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Thanks for your work.

A couple of things I'm keeping my eye on are

1) the WCC - Gonzaga needs to perform in conference to work their way into the field, and St. Mary's could get in as an at-large if they keep on their current trajectory. San Fran is in big trouble with their home loss to the Gaels, plus their win against the Gophers is on the verge of falling to a Q3 win.
2) BYU - the analytics love them, but they have one away win and have built their metrics on a Minnesota-esque noncon. They have a home game against Houston on Tuesday. I'll consider them less fraudulent if they come away with the win. Going .500 in the B12 gets them in anyway, maybe even two games under because of the strength of that league.
 

formerlybis said:
Thanks for your work.

A couple of things I'm keeping my eye on are

1) the WCC - Gonzaga needs to perform in conference to work their way into the field, and St. Mary's could get in as an at-large if they keep on their current trajectory. San Fran is in big trouble with their home loss to the Gaels, plus their win against the Gophers is on the verge of falling to a Q3 win.
2) BYU - the analytics love them, but they have one away win and have built their metrics on a Minnesota-esque noncon. They have a home game against Houston on Tuesday. I'll consider them less fraudulent if they come away with the win. Going .500 in the B12 gets them in anyway, maybe even two games under because of the strength of that league.
Click to expand...
I appreciate it, thanks.

To piggyback on your post, some of the things I'm monitoring as we approach February:

1 The mass of "OK" teams in the ACC that all need to make a push to secure an at-large bid: Miami, NC State, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Wake Forest. Maybe even add Florida State into the mix.

2 What's the floor and ceiling for the Big Ten? There are only 3 teams I feel 100% comfortable saying they'll make the tourney, Purdue, Wisconsin, and Illinois. After that? Could be anywhere from 1 to 4 more. The ones with the best chance of joining those 3 likely will need to have a win or two over the 3 heavyweights. Nebraska and Northwestern have a head start with wins over the Boilermakers.

3 Can the Big XII get 10 bids?

4 Will there be any non-Power 6 at-large bids from conferences not named the American or Mountain West? As you pointed out, the WCC is a possibility with Saint Mary's/Gonzaga, as is the A-10, but only if Dayton falls in the conference tourney. The A-10 is garbage and will be a 1-bid league if the Flyers sweep both titles.
 
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High-end win nugget. ...

Teams with 4 or more wins vs. the current NET top 50:
Purdue (9)
Arizona (6)
UConn (6)
Wisconsin (6)
Houston (5)
Kansas (5)
Marquette (5)
Baylor (4)
Memphis (4)
Tennessee (4)
Texas A&M (4)
Villanova (4)
 




Ope3 said:
Lafayette actually won 2 games to improve to 6-0 in the Patriot, yet their NET dropped from 299 to 303.

Colgate still 1 game behind and have the early tilt on CBS Sports Network tonight, 6pm vs Lehigh. Set your DVRs accordingly.
Click to expand...
Down goes Lafayette! Boston U throttled them. No longer in the ranks of the Patriot unbeaten.

By virtue of Colgate's W over American there is now a tie atop the leaderboard, at 7-1.
 

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