538 - 13% chance win Big 10

Dano564

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https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-college-football-predictions/

Now a 13% chance to win Big Ten.

OSU = 67%
MN = 13%
PSU 13%
Wis = 7%

9% chance to make CFP.
If we beat Iowa, we move up to 15% chance for CFP.

Interestingly, our CFP% increases by a point if Baylor beats OU. It decreases if OU beats Baylor. Our chacnes would reduce by a %point.
PSU losing to Indiana would decrease our chances by about 4%
 

I'm ok with it.

Honestly I'm all about one game at a time.

As for building the program... one division win at a time.

Worry about the rest later.

Anyone doesn't want to give us odds or rank us low ... show them up by winning more.

Also my brain tells me... Ohio State looks like a runaway freight train.
 

I'm ok with it.

Honestly I'm all about one game at a time.

As for building the program... one division win at a time.

Worry about the rest later.

Anyone doesn't want to give us odds or rank us low ... show them up by winning more.

Also my brain tells me... Ohio State looks like a runaway freight train.

Very interested to see how the Ohio State v Penn State game goes in a few weeks but agree that at this point Ohio State looks about as unbeatable as any team possibly can. They are just crushing everyone, could probably play all their backups this weekend against Rutgers and still roll to an easy victory. They are scary good.
 

Very interested to see how the Ohio State v Penn State game goes in a few weeks but agree that at this point Ohio State looks about as unbeatable as any team possibly can. They are just crushing everyone, could probably play all their backups this weekend against Rutgers and still roll to an easy victory. They are scary good.

A loss to unbeaten OSU is far better than a loss to PSU.
But a win over PSU probably more likely than a win over OSU in Indy.
 

Very interested to see how the Ohio State v Penn State game goes in a few weeks but agree that at this point Ohio State looks about as unbeatable as any team possibly can. They are just crushing everyone, could probably play all their backups this weekend against Rutgers and still roll to an easy victory. They are scary good.

I expect Ohio St. to run a buch of crossing routes and flood type offensive plays ... and just abuse Penn St's DBs like we did.

Michigan really showed everyone what to do there.
 


The only way to make the CFP is to go 1-0 in the Iowa Championship Season.
 

The only way to make the CFP is to go 1-0 in the Iowa Championship Season.

538 has us at 4% chance of making CFP if we lose to Iowa. Wins over Wisconsin and B1G East champion would still carry enormous value.
 

If we win out, including BTT, we are 55% chance to make playoff. It goes to 60% if OSU beats PSU this week. Goes to 46% if PSU beats OSU.
If TCU beats Oklahoma, our odds increase to 75% should we win out.


Wisconsin now has better odds of winning the Big Ten than we do.
They however are only a 33% chance to make CFP if they win out.
 

If we win out, including BTT, we are 55% chance to make playoff. It goes to 60% if OSU beats PSU this week. Goes to 46% if PSU beats OSU.
If TCU beats Oklahoma, our odds increase to 75% should we win out.


Wisconsin now has better odds of winning the Big Ten than we do.
They however are only a 33% chance to make CFP if they win out.
Hmm. I guess those 2 losses hurt a lot. But I suppose there never has been a 2-loss team in the playoffs before.
 



If we win out vs WI and OSU, we are now an 83% chance to make the CFP!
OSU would have an 11% chance to be the 4th
 




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