'22 Season vs '23 Season

[EG#9]

I don't know what conclusions to draw from this, but the seasons strike me as very similar to date with the Wisconsin game remaining.

'22 season at this point: 7-4 record, 3 B1G losses as favorites- Purdue, @Illinois, Iowa
'23 season at this point: 5-6 record, 3 B1G losses as favorites- @Northwestern, Illinois,@Purdue

The two win difference is accounted for by replacing Colorado with North Carolina in the non-conference portion of the schedule and Michigan and Ohio State replacing Penn State and Rutgers in the crossover games.

We are currently small underdogs against Wisconsin when we'd likely be a favorite had we not had some of the bad losses on our scehdule which is exactly the point we were at last season. Wisconsin was favored by 3 last year and is favored by 2.5 this year.

PJ has tried to paint '22 as a good year and bemoaned our injuries this year, but it really doesn't track other than purely counting wins. We'd likely have been 5-6 going in to the Wisconsin game last year if we had this years schedule. The entire West (with the exception of maybe Northwestern?) is worse than they were last year. I think the loser of Minnesota and Wisconsin will take the crown for the team that fell off the most. I feel like Wisconsin (even thought they were my pick in the West if it wasn't going to be Minnesota), can point to a new coach, new systems, and a QB injury. Iowa would certainly trade injury luck with us this year though they have been incredibly fortunate in late close games which hasn't been the case for Minnesota.

The killer is those 3 losses each year as favorites. That's a 1/3 of the conference schedule. Why is your veteran/deep team doing this in '22 if the reason for it this year is youth and lack of depth?

Nothing can be done to change the results of those games now, but I hope internally the discussion of "why?" is going deeper than just youth/depth.

 

[MplsGopher]

Interesting point! It's tough for me to lump Iowa 22 in with those three in 23, but we damn well should have won that game. Had the game basically won. Cold as hell.

So then the difference between 7-4 and 5-6 simply comes down to: PSU auto-loss vs Mich & OSU auto-loss and then an actual non-tomato can in non-conf, which indeed we lost.

 

[MplsGopher]

I will say, the 22 losses feel mostly different.

Purdue and Iowa were right there for the taking. Shot our feet off. Mo didn't play vs Purdue, that was a difference.

Illinois should not have been underdogs to us. It was early-ish yet. We were never in that game. Got helmet punched.


The 23 losses .... two just awful meltdowns and then Purdue just felt like we had no chance as the game got going later on, too many injuries caught up to us.

 

[MNVCGUY]

I don't know what conclusions to draw from this, but the seasons strike me as very similar to date with the Wisconsin game remaining.

'22 season at this point: 7-4 record, 3 B1G losses as favorites- Purdue, @Illinois, Iowa
'23 season at this point: 5-6 record, 3 B1G losses as favorites- @Northwestern, Illinois,@Purdue

PJ has tried to paint '22 as a good year and bemoaned our injuries this year, but it really doesn't track other than purely counting wins.

The killer is those 3 losses each year as favorites. That's a 1/3 of the conference schedule. Why is your veteran/deep team doing this in '22 if the reason for it this year is youth and lack of depth?

22' was a good year (not great but definitely good) and injuries have played a role in why 23' hasn't lived up to expectations. Injuries have torpedoed our depth at some key positions and that combined with a lack of execution in key moments has led to some winnable games slipping away.

As for the last part....it's the Big Ten.....outside of the top teams everyone is losing games they are small favorites in because the majority of games in the conference are tossups where the team that plays better that day is going to get the win.

We aren't a team that can just win by showing up....most conference games are going to be a battle.

The bottom line is that as much as we would love to be above the frey.....there is very little separation between Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois, Maryland, Rutgers, Michigan State, Northwestern, Purdue, Nebraska and Indiana......most games anyone in this group can beat anyone else in this group. And yes I know Iowa has the great record this year but they still belong far more with this group of teams than the Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State group which is at another level.

 

[Some guy]

This program was really lucky to have very few injuries at key positions in 2019

This program has been unlucky on injuries in 2021, 2022, and 2023

Hopefully it gets back to average or lucky in 2024.
The team gave away two games this year. Disappointing regardless of what year of Flecks tenure. Disappointing regardless of injury. But that’s why mediocre teams do, they find ways to lose games.

Hopefully the team is better next year.

 

[BigTenGuy]

22' was a good year (not great but definitely good)

1 rivalry win (the Axe in Madison) is doing a lot of work to support the idea that '22 was a good season. Otherwise, 2022 was 5 conference wins against 5 teams with losing conference records that were collectively 12-33 in conference play (MSU, Rutgers, Nebraska, NW & Wisconsin). And the 4 non-conference victories were hardly impressive, beating teams that finished, for example, # 50 (Syracuse), 110 (N. Mex. St.) and 119 (Colo.) in the Massey FBS Composite and # 106 (W. Illinois) in the Massey FCS Composite. Beating nobody except a down rival with an interim coach doesn't seem like a good season. It's just a weak schedule.

 

[MNVCGUY]

1 rivalry win (the Axe in Madison) is doing a lot of work to support the idea that '22 was a good season. Otherwise, 2022 was 5 conference wins against 5 teams with losing conference records that were collectively 12-33 in conference play (MSU, Rutgers, Nebraska, NW & Wisconsin). And the 4 non-conference victories were hardly impressive, beating teams that finished, for example, # 50 (Syracuse), 110 (N. Mex. St.) and 119 (Colo.) in the Massey FBS Composite and # 106 (W. Illinois) in the Massey FCS Composite. Beating nobody except a down rival with an interim coach doesn't seem like a good season. It's just a weak schedule.

9-4 is a good season. Not a great season for many of the reasons you laid out in your post, very similar to the 9 win season in 2016 in that regard.

But a 9 win season is a good season no matter who you beat to get there. All you can do is play the teams on your schedule.

 

[Dakota2]

I don't know what conclusions to draw from this, but the seasons strike me as very similar to date with the Wisconsin game remaining.

'22 season at this point: 7-4 record, 3 B1G losses as favorites- Purdue, @Illinois, Iowa
'23 season at this point: 5-6 record, 3 B1G losses as favorites- @Northwestern, Illinois,@Purdue

The two win difference is accounted for by replacing Colorado with North Carolina in the non-conference portion of the schedule and Michigan and Ohio State replacing Penn State and Rutgers in the crossover games.

We are currently small underdogs against Wisconsin when we'd likely be a favorite had we not had some of the bad losses on our scehdule which is exactly the point we were at last season. Wisconsin was favored by 3 last year and is favored by 2.5 this year.

PJ has tried to paint '22 as a good year and bemoaned our injuries this year, but it really doesn't track other than purely counting wins. We'd likely have been 5-6 going in to the Wisconsin game last year if we had this years schedule. The entire West (with the exception of maybe Northwestern?) is worse than they were last year. I think the loser of Minnesota and Wisconsin will take the crown for the team that fell off the most. I feel like Wisconsin (even thought they were my pick in the West if it wasn't going to be Minnesota), can point to a new coach, new systems, and a QB injury. Iowa would certainly trade injury luck with us this year though they have been incredibly fortunate in late close games which hasn't been the case for Minnesota.

The killer is those 3 losses each year as favorites. That's a 1/3 of the conference schedule. Why is your veteran/deep team doing this in '22 if the reason for it this year is youth and lack of depth?

Nothing can be done to change the results of those games now, but I hope internally the discussion of "why?" is going deeper than just youth/depth.

Good post.

 

[MplsGopher]

I think it's just as worthwhile to look at 21, too.

Look at the losses from 21-23 (I'm hoping that we beat Wisc, so not putting them below):

21
Ohio State ***
Bowling Green *
Illinois *
@ Iowa **

22
Purdue *
@Illinois **
@Penn State ***
Iowa *

23
@UNC **
@NW *
Michigan ***
Illinois *
@Purdue **
@Ohio State ***

where:
* = (very) frustrating loss, easily could've won the game, should've won the game
** = on paper we should've competed, but it was not going to happen that day for XYZ reasons
*** = we knew this was pretty much a loss back in August

Some of these you could argue are 'tweeners. 21 @ Iowa maybe should be more like 1.5 stars, 22 @Illinois perhaps 1.5, 23 @UNC perhaps 2.5, 23 @Purdue perhaps 1.5.

But point is, as the OP and others already said: having both Mich & OSU in addition to going from 21/22 Colorado to UNC, is where the extra two losses are coming from.


Every year PJ has delivered two losses with a single star. If you take all those out, then 21/22 are 11 win seasons, we probably go to Indy both years? And this year now has the potential for 9 wins and maybe still Indy on the table.

 

[NotAFanOfBecky]

It would be nice to actually seem like you had a chance against these better teams. Outside of Penn State in 19 they haven’t done that. In fact, it’s usually epic blowouts (OSU, MICHIGAN) with no sign of competitiveness. Grinning’ Glen got us a few of those to be wins (who can forget the FG against PSU?!?). Can we see that happen moving forward and be a competitive team? Would be great to at least feel like the game is worth playing.

 

[gopherbadgerman]

I don't know what conclusions to draw from this, but the seasons strike me as very similar to date with the Wisconsin game remaining.

'22 season at this point: 7-4 record, 3 B1G losses as favorites- Purdue, @Illinois, Iowa
'23 season at this point: 5-6 record, 3 B1G losses as favorites- @Northwestern, Illinois,@Purdue

The two win difference is accounted for by replacing Colorado with North Carolina in the non-conference portion of the schedule and Michigan and Ohio State replacing Penn State and Rutgers in the crossover games.

We are currently small underdogs against Wisconsin when we'd likely be a favorite had we not had some of the bad losses on our scehdule which is exactly the point we were at last season. Wisconsin was favored by 3 last year and is favored by 2.5 this year.

PJ has tried to paint '22 as a good year and bemoaned our injuries this year, but it really doesn't track other than purely counting wins. We'd likely have been 5-6 going in to the Wisconsin game last year if we had this years schedule. The entire West (with the exception of maybe Northwestern?) is worse than they were last year. I think the loser of Minnesota and Wisconsin will take the crown for the team that fell off the most. I feel like Wisconsin (even thought they were my pick in the West if it wasn't going to be Minnesota), can point to a new coach, new systems, and a QB injury. Iowa would certainly trade injury luck with us this year though they have been incredibly fortunate in late close games which hasn't been the case for Minnesota.

The killer is those 3 losses each year as favorites. That's a 1/3 of the conference schedule. Why is your veteran/deep team doing this in '22 if the reason for it this year is youth and lack of depth?

Nothing can be done to change the results of those games now, but I hope internally the discussion of "why?" is going deeper than just youth/depth.

21 was worse with the BG loss and being upset by Illinois.

 

[WorkingMyTailOff]

It would be nice to actually seem like you had a chance against these better teams. Outside of Penn State in 19 they haven’t done that. In fact, it’s usually epic blowouts (OSU, MICHIGAN) with no sign of competitiveness. Grinning’ Glen got us a few of those to be wins (who can forget the FG against PSU?!?). Can we see that happen moving forward and be a competitive team? Would be great to at least feel like the game is worth playing.

I would say the opener vs OSU in 2021 was competitive. The team and coach played to win and the talent gap wasn't as large. Also was it 2018 when the Gophers played a respectable game at Columbus?
Also prior to NIL the BIG West was stronger. This year just feels like the whole West took a couple of steps back and Michigan, PSU, and OSU are all better now.

 

[Gopherchase]

I would say the opener vs OSU in 2021 was competitive. The team and coach played to win and the talent gap wasn't as large. Also was it 2018 when the Gophers played a respectable game at Columbus?
Also prior to NIL the BIG West was stronger. This year just feels like the whole West took a couple of steps back and Michigan, PSU, and OSU are all better now.

Yes, that game in 21 was very competitive until Mo got hurt and then we got overwhelmed by what — four first round draft pick wide receivers in the second half. I don’t think NIL has had time yet to make any difference maybe in two years but I don’t think it is altering the competitive Landscape yet.