Lunardi Braketology 2/16


Don't look now, but Louisville is also a 2 seed... Wouldn't that be fun!
 

www.Bracketmatrix.com has had the Gophers listed as a consensus #7 seed for at least a week I believe. Started out as the 4th of the 7 seeds with NW being the 1st of the #8 seeds. NW jumped up to a #7 after their big win this week. Minnesota is still in that 4th #7 seed spot with NW in the 3rd spot among #7 seeds.
 

Would like like for us to climb up to a 6 seed if we could, but we need to win a majority of the remaining games.

The ol' 6 vs 3 matchup is better than 7 vs 2 should we win the first round.
 




Would like like for us to climb up to a 6 seed if we could, but we need to win a majority of the remaining games.

The ol' 6 vs 3 matchup is better than 7 vs 2 should we win the first round.

I agree with you 100% 37score. In fact, I'd MUCH rather be a #6 seed than a #5 seed. Nobody really cares if you win your 1st round game, not in the long run. The Sweet 16 is the minimum that a team needs to get to in order to be considered any kind of a success, but a #4 or #5 seed has to beat a #1 seed just to get to the Sweet 16. Not an easy task. #1 seeds NEVER lose their first round games. But #3 seeds DO sometimes lose their 1st round matchups, and if not their first round game, then they more often lose their 2nd round matchup.


Yeah, the #6 seed, in a season like this one, has to be seen as the ultimate goal. Although I'd be ok with our winning our next 8 or 9 games in a row and getting a #3 seed, lol.
 


I agree with you 100% 37score. In fact, I'd MUCH rather be a #6 seed than a #5 seed. Nobody really cares if you win your 1st round game, not in the long run. The Sweet 16 is the minimum that a team needs to get to in order to be considered any kind of a success, but a #4 or #5 seed has to beat a #1 seed just to get to the Sweet 16. Not an easy task. #1 seeds NEVER lose their first round games. But #3 seeds DO sometimes lose their 1st round matchups, and if not their first round game, then they more often lose their 2nd round matchup.


Yeah, the #6 seed, in a season like this one, has to be seen as the ultimate goal. Although I'd be ok with our winning our next 8 or 9 games in a row and getting a #3 seed, lol.

Incorrect. A #5 seed plays a #12 seed in the round of 64. If chalk holds, the #5 plays the #4 in the round of 32. At that point, in the round of 16, that #5 seed would have the opportunity to play the #1 seed. So your #5 seed would need to beat the #1 seed in order to reach the Elite Eight.
 



Incorrect. A #5 seed plays a #12 seed in the round of 64. If chalk holds, the #5 plays the #4 in the round of 32. At that point, in the round of 16, that #5 seed would have the opportunity to play the #1 seed. So your #5 seed would need to beat the #1 seed in order to reach the Elite Eight.

Correct.
Being a 5 seed seems to be the worst recently since the 12 vs 5 matchup always seems to be problematic for at least a couple teams.

I think the 5 seed is kind of a bad spot to be. Usually it's a team that might be good or might be inconsistent, or else they were highly rated and sliding. Perhap the case of teams with a key injured player or teams that got "figured out" some.
 

Incorrect. A #5 seed plays a #12 seed in the round of 64. If chalk holds, the #5 plays the #4 in the round of 32. At that point, in the round of 16, that #5 seed would have the opportunity to play the #1 seed. So your #5 seed would need to beat the #1 seed in order to reach the Elite Eight.


You are so right, I'm embarrassed that I was so lazy-brained while posting that, lol. But that doesn't change my belief that if you can't be a Top 3 seed, then being a #6 seed gives a team the best chance of making a decent run in the tourney.
 

You are so right, I'm embarrassed that I was so lazy-brained while posting that, lol. But that doesn't change my belief that if you can't be a Top 3 seed, then being a #6 seed gives a team the best chance of making a decent run in the tourney.

I'd pick #4. You get the winner of the 5 vs. 12 game which seem to be the 12 many times lately. The #6 has to play the #3.

Plus aren't you guaranteed not to have a "home court disadvantage" if you're a #4 seed?
 

We are currently a 6 seed in KenPom on CBS Bracketology. Playing in the south vs the winner of #11 Wake vs #11 Providence. If we won, would (most likely) play Florida.

I would take that outcome!
 



I'd pick #4. You get the winner of the 5 vs. 12 game which seem to be the 12 many times lately. The #6 has to play the #3.

Plus aren't you guaranteed not to have a "home court disadvantage" if you're a #4 seed?


Basically the goal is to avoid the impossible to beat teams as long as possible.


Here's a link of records vs various seeds.

http://mcubed.net/ncaab/seeds.shtml

Six seed is a great spot to be. Better winning percentage than a #5.
 



Is it possible that we have Mega Tongue to thank for this turnaround? Without the enormous buyout he offered Pitino, which was widely derided at the time, Pitino may have been canned after last season. Instead, he was given another year. And here we are.
 

Somehow beating Michigan caused Minnesota to drop a line and Michigan to get better by at least one line in his new projection.

Maybe he thought Michigan won?
 

Michigan did take it to OT on the road, that could be a resume boost...
 

Michigan beat Wisconsin, that's why they moved up. Couldn't say why we dropped though.
 

Northwestern dropped too. Seems like a case where he moved other teams up as opposed to moving us down.
 

Michigan beat Wisconsin, that's why they moved up. Couldn't say why we dropped though.

Not true. His previous bracket was released at the end of the day on the 16th. The day Michigan beat Wisconsin.

Which is when he moved Michigan from an 11 seed to a 10.
 

Must have been OK States great win over 9-17 Oklahoma
 

Don't know much about anything but Lunardi having Ok state on a 7 line and Minnesota on an 8 means he must think Michigan won
 

Not true. His previous bracket was released at the end of the day on the 16th. The day Michigan beat Wisconsin.

Which is when he moved Michigan from an 11 seed to a 10.

Lunardi releases the brackets early in the morning, if the game was on the 16th, it would've been after
 

Is Lunardi on the selection committee?
 




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