Jay Johnson

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GopherHomer said:
Dude - first of all, let's say I am predicting 30 regular season wins for Fleck over the next 4 years (7-8/per year) that would be better than the 29 (remember I am not counting bowl games) over the previous 4 so I'm sure where you are getting a 'step back' from. Also I think I articulated the reasons why I believe even a flat line would be an improvement over what I believe Claeys would have done.
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If Fleck only wins 7-8 regular season games in 2019, that is a big step back, period. You saying he wins some trophy games or not?
He's presumed to be a better coach and recruiter (maybe you don't agree?) so the expectation should match.
 

I propose that this thread be retitled:
Tracy Claeys: Legend or Myth, PJ Fleck: Messiah or False Prophet?
 





GopherHomer said:
Dude - first of all, let's say I am predicting 30 regular season wins for Fleck over the next 4 years (7-8/per year) that would be better than the 29 (remember I am not counting bowl games) over the previous 4 so I'm sure where you are getting a 'step back' from. Also I think I articulated the reasons why I believe even a flat line would be an improvement over what I believe Claeys would have done.
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You can't just selectively choose to leave out bowl games. They aren't exhibitions. They count in the record and everything. The Gophers had 31 wins the last 4 years.
 

To quote the late Rodney King's re-quote of someone else:
"Why can't we all just get along?"
 

KillerGopherFan said:
To quote the late Rodney King's re-quote of someone else:
"Why can't we all just get along?"
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Along those same lines...

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/W5FfJ89rGPc" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
 

dpodoll68 said:
You can't just selectively choose to leave out bowl games. They aren't exhibitions. They count in the record and everything. The Gophers had 31 wins the last 4 years.
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I mean, I get it - they obviously DO count. I was just being honest about how I judge seasons personally, and using a consistent stance to judge win totals. My point still stands as mid-tier bowl wins/losses will probably even out in the end.
 




I don't know how to post a video. You'll have to click link. Peace!
 


PMWinSTP said:
If Fleck only wins 7-8 regular season games in 2019, that is a big step back, period. You saying he wins some trophy games or not?
He's presumed to be a better coach and recruiter (maybe you don't agree?) so the expectation should match.
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Why? How is possibly equaling Claeys' 8 wins considered a big step back? Or were you kidding and that's why you punctuated your big boy statement with 'period?' If so, well done.

Really all I'm saying is that I think Fleck can elevate the program beyond what Claeys would have been capable of. He may not, but I think it was a risk worth taking. If the downside is he continues to win 7-8 games a year, we will be fine and right where we have been are our 'high water mark' for the last 20 years. If he ends up being Brewster-ish, than you are correct and we made a mistake. I hope you are not right, but that is just because I always want what is best for the University.
 

GopherHomer said:
Why? How is possibly equaling Claeys' 8 wins considered a big step back? Or were you kidding and that's why you punctuated your big boy statement with 'period?' If so, well done.

Really all I'm saying is that I think Fleck can elevate the program beyond what Claeys would have been capable of. He may not, but I think it was a risk worth taking. If the downside is he continues to win 7-8 games a year, we will be fine and right where we have been are our 'high water mark' for the last 20 years. If he ends up being Brewster-ish, than you are correct and we made a mistake. I hope you are not right, but that is just because I always want what is best for the University.
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Because the perception is he and his staff are considered upgrades (coaching and recruiting) over Claeys and his staff. He has better players, facilities and resources than at WMU...oh, and there's that $190M athlete's Village.

Really don't think Coyle had in his head that he would go spend an additional $15M+ over the next five years for a HC to just bump along at the same win total. You don't think that is the definition of a step backwards?
 



In any other world, spending more money for the same results is a loss.
 



PMWinSTP said:
Because the perception is he and his staff are considered upgrades (coaching and recruiting) over Claeys and his staff. He has better players, facilities and resources than at WMU...oh, and there's that $190M athlete's Village.

Really don't think Coyle had in his head that he would go spend an additional $15M+ over the next five years for a HC to just bump along at the same win total. You don't think that is the definition of a step backwards?
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Sure - if 5 years from now our program is no better off, I will certainly be disappointed. I'm just not ready to proclaim it a 'big step backwards' if 2017 isn't a finished product.

Also, I'm not sure what having better players, facilities, and resources than WMU has anything to do with comparing Claeys and Fleck. In comparison to his peers (MAC vs Big10) Fleck is walking into a more disadvantageous situation from 2016 to 2017.

Between this contract and the Athletes Village, this is the University of Minnesota's experiment of spending money that equates to about average in the conference. We will see if it turns into more wins...I, for one, hope it does. If not, we can always hire somebody else who I will also get excited about.
 

GopherHomer said:
Sure - if 5 years from now our program is no better off, I will certainly be disappointed. I'm just not ready to proclaim it a 'big step backwards' if 2017 isn't a finished product.

Also, I'm not sure what having better players, facilities, and resources than WMU has anything to do with comparing Claeys and Fleck. In comparison to his peers (MAC vs Big10) Fleck is walking into a more disadvantageous situation from 2016 to 2017.

Between this contract and the Athletes Village, this is the University of Minnesota's experiment of spending money that equates to about average in the conference. We will see if it turns into more wins...I, for one, hope it does. If not, we can always hire somebody else who I will also get excited about.
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It's absolutely a valid comparison. Like I've said in the last two responses, Fleck is perceived a a better coach and has a better staff. Given the same resources, he should be expected to produce better results, period. The "comparison to his peer" part is a read herring.
 

PMWinSTP said:
It's absolutely a valid comparison. Like I've said in the last two responses, Fleck is perceived a a better coach and has a better staff. Given the same resources, he should be expected to produce better results, period. The "comparison to his peer" part is a read herring.
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If you take away logical fallacies, all message boards will cease to exist. Honestly I'm just hoping for the best and am going to enthusiastically dive in with new football coach of my favorite university simply because life is more fun that way. If it doesn't work out, I will be man enough to admit it might have been a mistake but until then...RTB!

I still might argue the point about the current staff being better, though...until the new defensive coordinator proves something to me, I probably would have preferred Sawvel (or Claeys!) as d-coordinator. As for Claeys V Fleck I'm not even sure Fleck is the better coach given equal/static rosters for one season. I think the benefit of Fleck comes from recruiting and marketing...both of which will take time. Take care.
 

GopherHomer said:
If you take away logical fallacies, all message boards will cease to exist. Honestly I'm just hoping for the best and am going to enthusiastically dive in with new football coach of my favorite university simply because life is more fun that way. If it doesn't work out, I will be man enough to admit it might have been a mistake but until then...RTB!

I still might argue the point about the current staff being better, though...until the new defensive coordinator proves something to me, I probably would have preferred Sawvel (or Claeys!) as d-coordinator. As for Claeys V Fleck I'm not even sure Fleck is the better coach given equal/static rosters for one season. I think the benefit of Fleck comes from recruiting and marketing...both of which will take time. Take care.
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I get what you are saying. Fleck is much better on the offensive side and perceived a better HC. I absolutely hope that is the case. Coyle certainly believes so (his pressers after the hire),and bet the farm on it when he pulled the trigger on Claeys.
 

KillerGopherFan said:
TC's record is 11-9 as Gopher HC and interim HC, and 6-9 in the B1G.
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If you really are going to hold Claeys record against him when he took over mid-year for a coach who was medically forced to retire. . . you need to just come out and say "I like Fleck better, it's that simple". Your attempts to diminish Claeys 1 year as our head coach to prove your point with the numbers is pathetic.

We all get it, we can all manipulate numbers.

Claeys was the head coach for 1 season and he won 9 games. I know that eats at you because you so want to hedge your PJ bet. But you don't have to hedge that bet. Most of us who are arguing with you understand that getting to 9 wins is difficult, we just love watching the posters like you go through the mental gymnastics of trying to validate your "hedge".

Oh, and if you're dying to play these dumb games:
In Claeys first 15 months as Head Coach, he won 2 bowl games. . . let's see PJ do that.
In Claeys first season as a head coach, he won 9 games, in PJ's first season, he won 1 game.

It kind of seems like you can manipulate numbers.
 

Bob_Loblaw said:
If you really are going to hold Claeys record against him when he took over mid-year for a coach who was medically forced to retire. . . you need to just come out and say "I like Fleck better, it's that simple". Your attempts to diminish Claeys 1 year as our head coach to prove your point with the numbers is pathetic.

We all get it, we can all manipulate numbers.

Claeys was the head coach for 1 season and he won 9 games. I know that eats at you because you so want to hedge your PJ bet. But you don't have to hedge that bet. Most of us who are arguing with you understand that getting to 9 wins is difficult, we just love watching the posters like you go through the mental gymnastics of trying to validate your "hedge".

Oh, and if you're dying to play these dumb games:
In Claeys first 15 months as Head Coach, he won 2 bowl games. . . let's see PJ do that.
In Claeys first season as a head coach, he won 9 games, in PJ's first season, he won 1 game.

It kind of seems like you can manipulate numbers.
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If we're just using numbers, the 2015 team was 4-3 when TC took over. Does that mean he was a miserable failure for going 2-4 beating only Illinois and Central Michigan? That's the kind of simple analysis, like TC was 9-4, that has very little depth.
As I've said before, I'm more in the camp of TC wasn't a head coach than I am PJF is the Messiah. I don't know if Fleck will succeed, but I think his chances are waaayyy better than TC's. IMO, if TC had remained HC, we could have expected 5 wins in 2017 and a continued decline.
We'll never know if that was going to happen, but let's see what kind of job TC gets and how soon he gets one. Will he get a HC job? Will he get a DC? You'd kind of expect that. Or will he remain unemployed or get a position coach job somewhere? I think that will tell us what the coaching community thinks of him.
 

KillerGopherFan said:
If we're just using numbers, the 2015 team was 4-3 when TC took over. Does that mean he was a miserable failure for going 2-4 beating only Illinois and Central Michigan? That's the kind of simple analysis, like TC was 9-4, that has very little depth.
As I've said before, I'm more in the camp of TC wasn't a head coach than I am PJF is the Messiah. I don't know if Fleck will succeed, but I think his chances are waaayyy better than TC's. IMO, if TC had remained HC, we could have expected 5 wins in 2017 and a continued decline.
We'll never know if that was going to happen, but let's see what kind of job TC gets and how soon he gets one. Will he get a HC job? Will he get a DC? You'd kind of expect that. Or will he remain unemployed or get a position coach job somewhere? I think that will tell us what the coaching community thinks of him.
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We get you REALLY like PJ. We get you think Heather Fleck "struck gold". Let's just avoid trying to use numbers to prove your point. It looks silly.

You don't think Claeys could get a DC job if he wanted one? Really?
 

Bob_Loblaw said:
We get you REALLY like PJ. We get you think Heather Fleck "struck gold". Let's just avoid trying to use numbers to prove your point. It looks silly.

You don't think Claeys could get a DC job if he wanted one? Really?
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I said "you'd think so". It doesn't really matter what you or I think. What matters is what the coaching community decides.
 

As I tried to say before, it's almost impossible to have a rational argument when everyone is setting their own standards for what constitutes "success." Some people are basing their opinions on what they THINK Claeys would have done in the future - which is impossible to prove.

Yes, strength of schedule will vary from season to season. Yes, there can be "good" losses and "bad" wins, when judged subjectively.

But, in the end, coaches are judged, hired and fired based on wins and losses. 100 years from now, on some future virtual reality-based version of this board, people will look back at 2016 and see that a Coach named Tracy Claeys had a 9-4 record with a bowl game victory. They will not know whether the Rutgers win was a "bad" win, or the Penn State loss was a "good" loss or a "bad" loss. The record will be the only basis for judging the outcome of the season.
 

Bob_Loblaw said:
If you really are going to hold Claeys record against him when he took over mid-year for a coach who was medically forced to retire. . . you need to just come out and say "I like Fleck better, it's that simple". Your attempts to diminish Claeys 1 year as our head coach to prove your point with the numbers is pathetic.

We all get it, we can all manipulate numbers.

Claeys was the head coach for 1 season and he won 9 games. I know that eats at you because you so want to hedge your PJ bet. But you don't have to hedge that bet. Most of us who are arguing with you understand that getting to 9 wins is difficult, we just love watching the posters like you go through the mental gymnastics of trying to validate your "hedge".

Oh, and if you're dying to play these dumb games:
In Claeys first 15 months as Head Coach, he won 2 bowl games. . . let's see PJ do that.
In Claeys first season as a head coach, he won 9 games, in PJ's first season, he won 1 game.

It kind of seems like you can manipulate numbers.
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If you think it was a huge disadvantage for Claeys to take over midseason, then you have to admit that last year was a huge advantage for him, being that he wasn't a new comer to the team like PJ.
 

KillerGopherFan said:
If we're just using numbers, the 2015 team was 4-3 when TC took over. Does that mean he was a miserable failure for going 2-4 beating only Illinois and Central Michigan? That's the kind of simple analysis, like TC was 9-4, that has very little depth.
As I've said before, I'm more in the camp of TC wasn't a head coach than I am PJF is the Messiah. I don't know if Fleck will succeed, but I think his chances are waaayyy better than TC's. IMO, if TC had remained HC, we could have expected 5 wins in 2017 and a continued decline.
We'll never know if that was going to happen, but let's see what kind of job TC gets and how soon he gets one. Will he get a HC job? Will he get a DC? You'd kind of expect that. Or will he remain unemployed or get a position coach job somewhere? I think that will tell us what the coaching community thinks of him.
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Wow, 5 wins next year if Claeys was the coach? Probably thought we were going to get blown out by Washington State too. Tell me why flashy coaches are always given the benefit of the doubt where grinders, like Claeys, do not? The dude won 9 games and had a winning record in the Big Ten in his first full year as head coach.

Also, I don't give a rats a** what the coaching community thinks of him. I've been a Gopher Football fan a long time and never in a million years would I have thought we would fire a guy that won 9 games in his first year. To say he can't coach at this level is an absolute joke, he did an above average job his first season here.
 

Calm Down said:
Wow, 5 wins next year if Claeys was the coach? Probably thought we were going to get blown out by Washington State too. Tell me why flashy coaches are always given the benefit of the doubt where grinders, like Claeys, do not? The dude won 9 games and had a winning record in the Big Ten in his first full year as head coach.

Also, I don't give a rats a** what the coaching community thinks of him. I've been a Gopher Football fan a long time and never in a million years would I have thought we would fire a guy that won 9 games in his first year. To say he can't coach at this level is an absolute joke, he did an above average job his first season here.
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My guess is as good as yours. How many would the Gophers have won if TC were still coach? Can you prove your guess would be right? Unfortunately, no, you'd just be guessing.
But I can assure you, if the college football world thinks Claeys is a brilliant coach, he'll have a really good job in no time. Good coaches don't go unemployed for long.
You'd rather use your judgment to determine who is a great coach than a competitive, knowledgeable market? I'm saying that I don't think so much of my opinion that I won't consider what TC does from here on out to see if my opinion changes.
 

From now on let's put the number of wins we had in '16 in quotes ..... "9" wins.


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