Game 4: Gophers Host Arizona State (11-17-19)

We All Wanted an Early Season Test

Arizona State is 2-0 following home court wins over Air Force, 87-56 and Army, 83-51. The Sun Devils, projected 5th in the PAC 12, are coming off a 22-11 (10-7 Pac 12) season in which ASU advanced to the Sweet 16. ASU advanced by defeating UCF 60-49 and then home standing Miami 57-55 before losing to Mississippi State 53-76. So, just like Missouri State, Minnesota (2-1) is facing a sweet 16 team which advanced by winning on the host’s court.

However, Arizona State lost a few more pieces off their roster than did Missouri State. ASU’s two leading scorers, Kianna Ibis and Courtney Ekmark graduated. Still, ASU have 10 returning lettermen and enough new talent to have them currently ranked 19th in AP and 18th Coaches.

It hard to determine much from back to back service academy victories. Head coach Charli Turner Thorne (23rd season) played a lot of players; but that’s normal for the Sun Devils. We do know that she was impressed by senior grad transfer Ja’Tavia Tapley’s 18 point in 14 minutes against Army. Her effort included 6 rebounds and 4 steals. The 6’3” Tapley was highly recruited out of high school and played three years at Southern Cal.

Another player to watch is Robbi Ryan who put up 13 points in 14 minutes including 6 rebounds against Army. It Ryan’s first action of the season. Her time had been limited by a foot injury. She was a Pac 12 honorable mention last season. A player that did not play was Jamie Loera who is out 4-6 weeks with compartment syndrome.

Charli Turner Thorn’s quote following the Army game sums up ASU’s offensive philosophy:

On the tempo of tonight's game:

"We're trying to just work on pace, pacing the full-court. We want to run. We want to pick up. Obviously in the quarter court we want to get organized, be patient, but still play fast. I think our younger kids are still getting used to that. They're kind of a little slowed, but our first group when they come in they're looking really sharp right now. We can get better, but I don't know too many teams that are really good offensive teams that play slow."

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And a bit more on pushing the pace from a preseason story:

https://www.statepress.com/article/...ooks-to-build-off-of-sweet-sixteen-appearance

ASU’s best chance to compete in the conference will be to play a similar run-and-gun style as it played last year led by Ryan and Richardson, said sophomore forward Jayde Van Hyfte.

"From a basketball standpoint, I think we are a much faster team this year," she said. "We move the ball really quickly and get fast break points. Our guards are looking to push the ball every time."

Turner Thorne emphasized the team's guard play and said the team has more depth this year.

“We’re pretty small, so we will be playing some small ball this year," Turner Thorne said. "We have a little more depth this year, especially at the guard position.”

She knows that Sun Devil shooting will be a huge inflection point for the success of the team.

“We know to have a great year we have to shoot the ball well,” Turner Thorne said. “Especially this year because we are more perimeter driven.”

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Minnesota Connection: The Sun Devils feature two players from Minnesota (which is two more players than they have from Arizona). Both Minnesotans started the first two games and are seniors; Jamie Ruden (John Marshall) and Kiari Russell (Osseo)



Fun Note: On the bench for the Sun Devils is assistant coach Nikki Blue whom Gopher fans remember from the classic first round 2004 NCAA matchup at Williams Arena. During that game, Blue was nearly unstoppable with 33 points. But her late game dust-up with Janel McCarville’s contributed to Bruin coach Kathy Olivier’s dash onto the court. Olivier’s resulting technical helped Minnesota to some very appreciated scoreboard breathing room.

It shall now qualify as a series: Minnesota and Arizona State have met once-in 1982. It was a 76-58 Gopher victory.



Probable Starters:

6’1” F So Jayde Van Hyfte: 21 minutes/game 12.0 points/game and 6.0 rebounds/game
6’2” F Sr Jaime Ruden: 12.9 mpg, 9.5 ppg and 3.5 rpg
5’8” G Sr Kiari Russell: 18.7 mpg, 7.5 ppg and 1.5 rpg
5’10” G So Taya Hanson: 20.1 mpg, 6.5 ppg and 3.5 rpg
5’11” G Sr Reili Richardson: 18.1 mpg, 3.5 ppg and 3.0 rpg

Other:

6’3” F Sr Ja’Tavia Tapley: 17.3 mpg, 14.5 ppg and 7.0 rpg
5’9” G Sr Robbi Ryan: 14.7 mpg, 12.0 ppg and 6.0 rpg
5’7” G Fr Sara Bjedi: 18.8 mpg, 7.0 ppg and 2.5 rpg

Sounds like CTT still uses hockey substitutions?

Reminder that Arizona State is a GOLD OUT game, so please wear your gold if you are coming to the game. Free t-shirts for first 1,000 through the doors when they open at 2 PM. Game is also on the Big Ten Network.

https://www.postbulletin.com/sports...cle_6b79d8da-074c-11ea-b045-ff7141dd76d0.html

Post Bulletin: Jaimie Ruden set for welcome home

Turner Thorne also appreciates how the 6-feet-2 Ruden plays. She’s been among the team’s best three-point shooters since arriving on campus in 2016. Ruden is also a physical force and is playing center this year despite her lack of prototypical Division I height at the position.

What she has in its place is strength.

“When (Ruden) is healthy, she’s a beast,” Turner Thorne said. “She’s very willing to go inside. And we need that from her because we graduated our other centers from last year. She’s been doing a great job down there.”

Turner Thorne referenced Ruden’s health because the sweet-shooting center has dealt with a litany of injuries in college.

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Ruden played in all but two games after "only" suffering a sprained ankle, a broken nose and a broken thumb last year.

Now this season seems up for grabs. That’s because Ruden — who is starting at center for the Sun Devils — has a new injury. She’s dealing with plantar fasciitis in her right foot, an often debilitating conditioning.

It’s not quite debilitating yet for Ruden, who sat out half of her team’s last game due to the injury but is expected to play Sunday. Ruden is hopeful that it never will become debilitating.

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https://www.espn.com/womens-college...a-davis-impressed-everything-else-learned-far

Possible upset to watch for in the next week?

Creme: Minnesota was a Top 25 team in the preseason, so perhaps beating Arizona State at home on Sunday wouldn't be a shocker, but the Golden Gophers lost their opener, albeit to a good Missouri State team. Minnesota can score and, despite putting up 80-plus points in both of its games so far, the Sun Devils have struggled in that area the past couple of seasons. Eventually, someone in the top half of the Pac-12 will lose. This just might be it on Sunday.

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https://www.azcentral.com/story/spo...=google&utm_medium=amp&utm_campaign=speakable

The Arizona Republic:

Pam Borton was fired as Gophers coach in March 2014 and replaced by Marlene Stollings, previously at Virginia Commonwealth, when Russell and Ruden were high school sophomores.

"I was looking at Minnesota early in eighth and ninth grade," said Ruden, who grew up in Rochester, Minn. "After the coaching change, I fell off their list."

Russell, from Minneapolis, had the hometown university among her final three choices but in June 2015 – after Stollings' first season – joined Ruden and three others as part of an Arizona State recruiting class that would end up ranked a school-high No. 10 nationally.

Four of those five still are at ASU – Sydney Goodson transferred to Texas Tech, now coached by Stollings – with three NCAA Tournament appearances to their credit. The path to No. 4 goes through Minneapolis on Sunday in a homecoming game of sorts for the Minnesota Sun Devils against the Gophers.

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A combined 100 family and friends are expected at Williams Arena – opened in 1928 and known in the Twin Cities as the Barn – to cheer for Russell, Ruden and No. 18 ASU (2-0), playing for the first time in a week. Minnesota improved to 2-1 Thursday and is receiving votes in both major national polls.

"I've been preparing myself mentally and physically," Russell said. "I'm trying to stay as poised as possible and relaxed. I don't want to see my family until after the game. I've got to take care of business first then enjoy the company after. It's going to be fun."

Ruden, 6-2 forward/center, and Russell, 5-8 guard, started in ASU's first two games, one-sided wins over Air Force and Army. But Ruden played just eight minutes vs. Army due to a right foot injury and her availability Sunday is uncertain.

"It's hard to know what to expect," Ruden said. "It's a cumulative injury and I landed on it wrong (vs. Army) and that aggravated it. They're taking good care of me. It seems like it's getting better. I hope I can play."

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Game day Gopher ladies! Go get the win!

Not a bad first quarter - we’ll take a 20-9 start. A lot of good fast breaks.

But whew, what a great start. Nine points in 2 minutes. Then the Arizona State coach made an adjustment. But just for grins, note that that was on pace for a 45-point quarter. Or, if you will, a 180-point game.

BTW, reffing is largely horrible.

37-32 MIN at the half

A good win with some strong performances. Destiny played 40 minutes with 22 points, 5 rebounds and 7 assists. Hubbard tossed in 20 points with four treys. Taiye Bello carried the load inside with 9 points and 11 rebounds.

Arizona State obviously thought they could out run and out gun the Gophers; but Whalen turned the tables early with Minnesota pressing and running. It threw the Sun Devils off balance most of the Game.

Powell had a fairly solid outing which included a wonderful long break out pass to a streaking staples for a layup. Powell also had freshman moment. In the fourth, she shot an open corner three when she should've made the extra pass to Pitts for a more open three. And then on the next possession Powell dribbled and dribbled her way to the base line and missed a fade away jumper. Whalen immediately subbed in Scalia. That was the end of Powell's day.

Speaking of Scalia, she and Hubbard made back to back threes when I thought the Gophers were going to run some time off the clock. They did not get conservative at crunch time.

https://gophersports.com/documents/2019/11/17//04_ASU_Quotes.pdf

Minnesota Head Coach Lindsay Whalen
Opening Statement:
“It was a complete win for us. We executed the game plan from start to finish. I thought just the way we came out, right off the bat, getting in the lane. We knew one of the things that they liked to do was press and deny and ball pressure all over the place. We thought we could attack pressure with pressure, and these guys went out there and did it. They came out right from the start focused and ready to go. It was probably one of the best communication games that we’ve had since I’ve been here. They were just tremendous from the opening tip.”

On the importance of getting off to a quick start:
“It’s huge. We knew that if we came out there and right off the bat let them know we were ready to play that good things would happen for us. It’s one thing to say it, it’s another thing to go out there and do it, and these guys went out there and did it. Defensively, our deflections and rebounds were our best. It was our best defensive rebounding performance of the season. That just got us going right away, and we were able to get out in transition and get some stuff easy right off the bat.”

On the benefits of scheduling difficult non‐conference games:
“I think you learn a lot early from playing really great teams. It helps for Everything down the road. All of our returners’ goals were to get back to the NCAA tournament, so you have to come out and play teams that were there. It helps to have that experience before you get to the Big Ten, but then it helps you later down the road, as well. I’m very happy with our progress from the opening night, when we played Missouri State, to now just two weeks later.”

On handling Arizona State’s pressure with a smaller lineup in:
“It was a game where we talked a lot about how the two Jasmine’s [Powell and Brunson] were going to play quite a bit together to be able to handle that. At times, we knew that Pitts [Destiny Pitts] was going to bring it up along with Diva [Gadiva Hubbard] and Sara [Sara Scalia] just because they were flying around. They were coming in averaging 31 points off of turnovers. We knew if we dug in and rebounded the ball on the defensive end that we would have a better chance against pressure with the amount of guys that we have that are skilled and can handle the ball. I don’t know if we threw them off balance or not, but it definitely helped having four ball handlers out there at the same time the whole game."

Minnesota junior Destiny Pitts
On being more aggressive in her approach:
“Yeah, just staying patient on offense and reading what is going on to determine when I should attack and when I should kick it for one more.”

On reaching the 1,000 point milestone:
“Yeah, it’s cool. I would just like to thank my teammates and coaches for all the work I put in with them, I couldn’t have done it without all of them so I am just thankful for all of them."



Minnesota senior Jasmine Brunson
On if she gets more excited to playing challenging non‐conference teams:
“Slightly, but at the end of the day whoever we have on the schedule we have to come out and make a statement, especially in front of our home fans. So it's not really too much about our opponent, but I just know that the work we put in as a team and the things we want to capitalize on. Luckily we were able to come out with a win today.”

A great Gopher win against a tough team that looked like they might be clawing their way back via making some threes, but we had the answer (great D, breaking their press, and some more threes of our own).

And now, some “Fun with RPIs.”

At this point, 4 games into our non-conf schedule, RPI statistics are hyper-meaningless (as opposed to the situation late into conference play, in which RPI is still pretty useless except for the fact that the NCAA Selection Committee is about to use it as a major tool to decide who gets an invite to the big dance).

Yet it’s fun to look at them anyway, if only because the early-season RPIs demonstrate the hyper-meaninglessness.

For example, our friends Arkansas Pine Bluff currently have a #114 RPI ranking. Not bad, considering they usually end up in the bottom 100.

As I draft this post, the Gophers just beat Arizona State 80-66, but that result has not yet been updated in RealtimeRPI (so that it thinks it’s still pre-game). So, pre-game it gave Arizona State an RPI rank of #67 (and an SoS rank of #174), and it gave Minnesota an RPI rank of #183 (and an SoS rank of #171). That’s 69 slots worse than Arkansas Pine Bluff, by the way. Its Gamer algorithm guessed that we’d beat Arizona State 73-65 (but I guess we scored 7 points more).

At this point in Gamer time, Gamer projects the Gophers to end up with a final record of 18-11, including an 11-7 Big-Ten season and a 7-4 non-conference season. It’s calling additional losses at Notre Dame (by 26 points), and at American (by 4 points), at George Washington (by 1 point). It’s also thinking we’ll suffer Big-Ten losses at Penn State, at Nebraska, at Purdue, at Indiana, at Ohio State, at Michigan State, and at Iowa. Basically, it thinks we win all our Big-Ten home games but lose all the Big-Ten away games except for at Illinois and Wisconsin). I suspect that’s just how Gamer works when lacking much real evidence.

By the way, RealtimeRPI ranks our next difficult opponent, Notre Dame, at RPI #173, only 10 slots higher than us, yet it thinks that the Irish will beat us by 26 points. I think it believes that the teams are nearly equal but that Notre Dame has a huge home-court advantage. Let’s go Lady Gophers, beat Irish and bank 1.4 games worth of Win in your RPI account.

By the way, the same web site also posts WBB Power Rankings. On that page it shows Notre Dame as #1, in spite of a 2-2 record, followed in the Power Rankings by Mississippi State, Louisville, Baylor, Oregon and Ohio State (sic). Clearly the Power Rankings are also overly influenced by Strength of Schedule, since per that table, Notre Dame has the #1 SoS, and Ohio State has the #8 SoS. In the Power Rankings (again, pre Arizona State Win), Minnesota comes in ranked at #28. At least the Power Rankings are more correlated to the Truth than RPI is. I mean, other than the joke of a depleted (albeit with a good rookie class) Ohio State showing up at #8, you’ve at least got good teams like Baylor and Oregon leading the Power Rankings.

Now let’s switch gears back to RPI again. Guess where last-year’s champion Baylor currently lands on the RPI? At #181! Ridiculous, right? Well not really - it’s just RPI doing its (dumb) RPI thing. You see, RPI is 3/4 based on Strength of Schedule, and at this stage of the season, Baylor’s 3 wins and zero losses count for very little, however the fact that it’s first three non-conference opponents are weak counts for a lot. Baylor’s Strength of Schedule through 3 games is the #300 ranked SoS. Thus, in the Gospel According to RPI, Baylor currently warrants a #181 RPI. Later in the season, after it plays some real teams, its RPI will gradually float toward where the Power Rankings already have it ranked.

This next bit of early-season RPI trivia will blow your mind. Where do you think Marlene Stollings’ Texas Tech Red Raiders are currently ranked in RPI? As I draft this, they currently have an RPI ranking of #4! I swear, I’m not making this up (although by the time you look it up on RealtimeRPI they probably will have moved). Currently they have played (and won) only a single game. Unlike Baylor, who played a couple weak teams, Texas Tech played only a “middle-of-the-road team” of Sam Houston State, who won one and lost to Texas Tech. Anyway, TT’s SoS includes not only Sam Houston, but also all the other teams it will eventually play, most of which have good records right now, and long story short, right now Texas Tech’s raw SoS number = 0.8333, which happens to be the 5th highest SoS in NCAA Div I. Mind you, don’t think that Marlene has changed her ways and actually booked a tough schedule this year. Rather, this is just a fluke do to the silly way that RPI is calculated - being more a measure of how your season’s opponents are doing so far, than a measure of how your team is doing so far. Well at least Marlene started with a single win, so good luck to her and her team in trying to keep the perverse RPI metric ranking her team at #4 for the rest of the season.

Now we return to the Gophers, since enough time has transpired such that RealtimeRPI has been updated with the Minnesota victory over Arizona State. With that win, the Gophers have moved from #183 to #81 RPI rank, whereas Arizona State has moved from #67 to #130 RPI rank. Big moves in RPI can happen this early in the season, which is one of the reasons that it’s pretty useless this early (other than to point out the foibles of RPI).

Also, with the Arizona State win the Gophers’ SoS moved from #171 ranked to #86 ranked. The major reason for us having such a decent SoS now is thanks to having played Missouri State, who is now at a #7 RPI ranking. Missouri State is the loss that keeps on giving. Note also that Missouri State’s current RPI ranking is 3 slots behind Texas Tech (which also makes no sense, especially since Texas Tech has won only a single game against middling competition, whereas Missouri State is 4-1, having beat some tough teams such as Minnesota, and only losing to Oregon State (who currently ranks #1 in RPI). All just extra evidence of the uselessness of the RPI metric. RPI is ridiculous in general; but the fact that it is absolutely laughable this early in the season, is just a corollary to that theorem.

However, note that Gamer makes no changes to its forecast for Minnesota’s full season. (Again we should take this with a giant grain of salt, but) Gamer’s early-season projections for the entire Big Ten are ...

Team Won-Loss (Big-Ten Won-Loss)
Maryland 23-6 (14-4)
Iowa 24-5 (13-5)
Rutgers 22-7 (12-6)
Michigan State 19-9 (11-7)
Purdue 19-9 (11-7)
Minnesota 18-11 (11-7)
Michigan 18-11 (10-8)
Indiana 17-13 (10-8)
Nebraska 19-10 (9-9)
Ohio State 18-11 (8-10)
Northwestern 17-13 (7-11)
Penn State 15-13 (7-11)
Illinois 10-19 (2-16)
Wisconsin 9-20 (1-17)

In other words, At this early date, Gamer thinks that the Gophers will end up in a three-way tie for 4th place in the Big Ten. Ahead of us, Gamer puts Maryland, Iowa and Rutgers, in that order. We can keep this for comparison later in the season.

One thing that Gamer may be right about is the potential log jam of teams in the middle of the Big-Ten pack.

https://www.statepress.com/article/...old-in-minnesota-on-route-to-their-first-loss

Some quotes from Charli Turner Thorne:

After the game, ASU head coach Charli Turner Thorne noted her frustration with the lack of passion out from her team this afternoon.

“You know I just think our whole team is just kind of a rude awakening in a lot of ways in terms of the effort. I say every year that you forget how hard you have to play to win,” Turner Thorne said. "Hopefully this a game where we can look at and go 'OK' we are not playing hard enough to dictate things.”

Turner Thorne mentioned that a large part of the struggles in this game could be traced to the team’s lack of size with senior center Jamie Ruden sidelined with an injury.

“Clearly not having Jamie out there was impactful because we just have all brand-new post player," Turner Thorne said. "And that showed today, you know their newness and lack of experience.

...

Other than Tapley, scoring was hard to come by for the Maroon and Gold. ASU backcourt’s struggles were a big reason for the loss as a typically sturdy and veteran group struggled to get anything going offensively against a stout Minnesota defense.

Turner Thorne said she wasn't entirely surprised by her team's performance on Sunday afternoon.

“Definitely knew there was going to be some growing pains with this team, and probably better sooner rather than later to have a game where they experience just not staying connected and giving the effort that it takes,” Turner Thorne said.

She hopes that this game can be used as an early-season learning moment for the team as the season progresses.

“It was one of these games that can hopefully be a defining moment for our program,” Turner Thorne said.

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While RPI is still figuring itself out for this year, the Gophers jumped from I think around 168 last time I looked to 81 after this win. Missouri State is #7 with their only loss to #1 Oregon St. Of course, still VERY early!

The game against ASU may have provided a success template for other games to follow. Scoring-wise, Pitts and Hubbard both in the 20s, Brunson in the teens. Bello with close to a double-double. Also, the Gophers gave Bello some help on the boards against ASU. They'll have to do that throughout the season if they are going to be successful. I like the way that this club has played some good defense; also like the fact that Whalen is willing to switch her defenses occasionally during the games. It looks like this year's version of the Gophers is going to be a team that turns the ball over less than last year's team. It also looks like this is going to be a team that shoots free throws well. Individually, it looks like Hubbard has regained her pre-injury form. It looks like Powell and Scalia will be valuable pieces throughout the year. I like the fact that both look comfortable out there. Both of them can score, both seem intent on playing defense, Powell looks like she could be an assist leader, and Scalia looks like she can rebound some. As Whalen noted earlier in the year, we'll have to hope that one of the backup post players becomes a factor. If Whalen is going to continue to employ some full court pressure, with T. Bello at the front of the pressure, they're going to have to be very careful with Bello getting any additional fouls when they do that. I love the full court pressure; it's effective. But without Bello's inside presence, this team is very mediocre.

Waffle said:

While RPI is still figuring itself out for this year, the Gophers jumped from I think around 168 last time I looked to 81 after this win. Missouri State is #7 with their only loss to #1 Oregon St. Of course, still VERY early!

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Exactly. Minnesota first jumped to #86 in RPI last night when I checked (after the AZ St win was reported), and then slid up to #81 overnight as other game results were reported. We don’t really care too much what our RPI is right now, as it bounces all over the place, and before playing the Big Ten boosts it up to where we need it. But make no mistake, this Arizona State win will prove huge to our end-of-season RPI.

The next potential prize is Notre Dame. If we can play as cohesively and disciplined as we just did, then we have a decent chance of beating Notre Dame. Plus, just playing them gives us a boost (as in the case of Missouri State).

BTW, tripledouble’s analysis is spot on about what was good/important about our play yesterday, and how we need to keep that success formula going.

Testing inserting you tube

I will be thrilled if the guards can rebound like they did yesterday.. 14 rebounds between, Pitts,Hubbard and Brunson.. but they need to do it every game.. we can't just hope Tayie pulls down 20 a game..

we do need work on offensive rebounding only had 4 offensive rebounds for 5 2nd chance points

tripledouble said:

The game against ASU may have provided a success template for other games to follow. ... Powell looks like she could be an assist leader ...

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Jasmine Powell is estimated to currently be ranked about 250th in the country with 12 total assists. But that's actually pretty good for someone that comes off the bench and plays about 20 minutes per game. If (hypothetically) she had played a full 40 minutes like Pitts and assisted at the same rate she has done, then she would have had 24 assists by now. That would have put her in an eight-way tie for 12th place nationally. For reference, the current national leader in assists is Sabrina Ionescu with 32 assists (in only 3 games, which would be equivalent to 43 assists in four games).

Ahead of Powell in total assists within the Big Ten are Khadaizha Sanders (28 assists) of Rutgers, Kendra Van Leeuwen (25) of Wisconsin, Ali Patberg (22) of Indiana, Amy Dilk (21) of MIchigan, Ashley Owusu (21) of Maryland, Veronica Burton (18) of Northwestern, Janai Crooms (18) of Ohio State, and our own Destiny Pitts (18 and tied for 60th place) among others. In other words, on an assists-per-minute-played basis, she ranks right up there with top eight assisters of the Big Ten. If you add in Jasmine Brunson but do so on a pro-rated assists-per-minute-played basis (since she plays about 3 out of every 4 quarters), that would put Brunson at about 19 assists for the four games thus far (on an adjusted pro-rated basis). So, following that reasoning, one could legitimately say that the Gophers have 3 of the top 10 assisters in the Big Ten.

That bodes well for us in Big Ten play. Assisters + shooters + (at least T. Bello) rebounders + low turnover rate + good defense (causing high turnover rate for the other team as well as fast breaks for us) = efficient outscoring on the opponent (unless they can match us category-for-category or we're just having a bad shooting day). In the Arizona State game we saw this formula play out, with the result being a win. (And in fact, during the first two minutes we saw this played out in spades, with Arizona State being held scoreless while we played at a 180 points-per-game pace for a full two minutes (which, of course, you could not keep up for a full game, so the point is only academic).) A completely different result than the first game against an approximately equally good Missouri State team (in which we were rather discombobulated). Notice also that we attacked the paint on offense in the Arizona State game, whereas we just dribbled from side to side, perpendicular to the direction we wanted to go, in the Missouri State game (showing that not only did the players learn from that first loss, but the coaches also learned).

Powell racked up a couple turnovers along with two more assists in the Arizona State game. This drops her assist-to-turnover ratio from 10:1 to 12:3 = 4.0, thus also dropping her national Div-I ranking in assist-to-turnover ratio from #6 to #36.

By the way, Taiye Bello is tied for 62nd place in total rebounds at 36 (with the leader in that category having 56). She's behind last year's rebounding pace due to lots of bench time in Game 1. She's still leading the Big Ten tho. She is also tied for 23rd place in blocked shots per game, at 2.75.

If we're going to talk about Real Time RPI at this early point, when it's even more dicey than usual, the real number to look at is the Gophers' projected season-ending RPI rank. Even with that 18-11 record, it's 32. Which would get them into the tournament. (Although I can't imagine them losing 11 games, personally.)

thatjanelpick said:

If we're going to talk about Real Time RPI at this early point, when it's even more dicey than usual, the real number to look at is the Gophers' projected season-ending RPI rank. Even with that 18-11 record, it's 32. Which would get them into the tournament. (Although I can't imagine them losing 11 games, personally.)

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Very correct @thatjanelpick (and thanks for emphasizing the more-dicey-than-usual nature of RPI at this early point). In fact the two numbers to look at on the Gopher detail page http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_190_Women.html are Projected RPI Rank = 32 and (perhaps even more importantly) Projected SOS Rank = 17. In other words, we went from the crappy weak schedule that Marlene picked for us last year (and more and more I believe that was intentional to pad her resume for a jump to a warmer $$$-er job), to the 17th most difficult schedule in the country. And since RPI is 3/4 a measure of the success of your opponents and opponents’ opponents but only 1/4 a measure of your own team’s success, the Gamer-projected #17 SOS is a larger factor in the projected #32 RPI rank than the Gamer-projected 18-11 (11-7) record for the Gophers.

In a sense, the “natural” RPI rank would be #17 (matching the 3/4 emphasis put on SOS), but the 1/4 emphasis on our Gamer-projected (slightly weaker) 18-11 won-loss record drags us down to a projected #32 RPI.

It might very well be the case that Whalen picked us a much more difficult (and reasonable) non-conf schedule for completely altruistic reasons (e.g., to better prepare us for the Big Ten - which I also concur with). But in doing so, she also punched our ticket to the Big Dance (and all we gotta do is go 18-11 to pay for the bus ticket to get there).

I too can’t imagine them losing 11 games. I think Gamer is off by a bit on that one. For starters, it thinks we lose to American and George Washington, but I think we win those if we buckle down and play like we did against Arizona State. I also think that we might have a 50% chance of beating Notre Dame (even tho it’s an away game). And I think we win a couple away Big-Ten games that Gamer has us losing. So I think we lose closer to 7 games than 11 games.

If that becomes so, that would bump our end-of-season RPI from the Gamer-projected #32 to closer to the “natural SOS-based” #17. In other words, if we can go 22-7 (like I think we can) instead of 18-11, then not only are we a shoo-in for the NCAA playoffs, but we get a decent seeding to boot.

The biggest difference makers between last year’s team and this year’s team are:
This year we have a sufficiently difficult non-conf schedule that we have a chance, whereas last year’s schedule was like a boat anchor around our neck. We got Diva back, whereas last year we were short one shooter. It looks like we’re going to get good production from our Freshmen, perhaps enough to replace Keke’s points. Incremental improvement this year in key players like Pitts, Brunson and T. Bello. Better defense this year. Fewer turnovers this year.

Depending on who we get matched up against in the first two rounds, I’d say we have a decent chance of making it to the Sweet Sixteen this year. That’s where this team should set its sights this year. But first they need to buckle down and treat each game like it’s the most important game in the schedule.

here are some projected results for the Gophers..

Gophers112233 said:

here are some projected results for the Gophers..

2020 Minnesota Women's Basketball Predicted Results, Scores & RPI | WarrenNolan.com

2020 Minnesota Golden Gophers Women's Basketball Predicted Results for Every Upcoming Game and Predicted Final RPI, Strength of Schedule, and Quadrant Wins

warrennolan.com

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Those Warren Nolan projected results are much closer to what I would expect for the Gophers than the Gamer projected results. They project only 8 losses (one more than my wild guess) with the difference being wins at American and George Washington, plus a mostly different projection for Big-Ten games with a net delta of one more B1G win. For a total 21-8 record, which would net us an estimated end-of-season RPI of 23 and SOS of 13. (It's apparently a bit more optimistic about our end-of-season SOS as well.)

My guess is that the Warren Nolan projections are closer to the Truth than the Gamer projections. And an RPI of 23 would get us a decent NCAA seeding. A whole lot better than the "Bubble Party" seeding we got 2 years ago, when we had to take on Oregon in the second game. (The longer we can dodge Oregon, the better.)

Really fun game to be at on Sunday. I thought the ladies showed a lot of good in the game. They played with a lot of energy, had active hands and made things difficult for ASU. I liked our ball movement and aggressiveness to get to the hoop. I still think we need to work on our offensive rebounding, but overall a lot of positives to take away. Coach Charli was in the refs' ears a lot during the game she looked pretty upset throughout. Always a good sign.

Swish Appeal Weekly Wrap:

Surprise
The preseason No. 23 Minnesota Golden Gophers (3-1) bounced back from an upset loss at the hands of Missouri State and got themselves nine more AP votes with an 80-66 win over then-No. 19 Arizona State on Sunday. Lindsay Whalen’s crew was still trying to recover from last season’s disappointing Big Ten showing when they lost that first game of the season to the Lady Bears. Now they have regained some positive momentum after their perfect non-conference run in 2018-19 was ruined by a 9-9 record in the Big Ten, which caused them to miss the NCAA Tournament.

Whalen brought so much energy to her inaugural year as a Minnesota grad/former WNBA star and really had the team playing well at the beginning of the season. Now she’s trying to get her program back on track. Demonstrating that she can bring a team back from a tough loss to beat a ranked opponent is a good sign.
Milestones
No. 1 Oregon’s Sabrina Ionescu, who will go down as one of the best college players of all-time, surpassed 2,000 points and 800 assists for her career in a 109-52 win over Utah State on Nov. 13. She was one rebound shy of her 19th career triple-double in that contest and finished last week with 30 rebounds and 32 assists in three games.

Meanwhile, Minnesota’s Destiny Pitts reached 1,000 points on her career in the win over the Sun Devils. Pitts’ performance in that game included 22 points, seven assists and five rebounds.

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