Some Vegas lines now have Gophers as 3.5 point underdogs.

swingman

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Most still have Iowa favored by 3...but not much push this week on getting it to 2.5.
 

Most still have Iowa favored by 3...but not much push this week on getting it to 2.5.

There is a lot of narrative going around that this is gonna be a let down game, I'm hearing it almost everywhere.

The betters must be buying into that.
 

You know that Vegass is wrong on this one as they have been before.
 

Most still have Iowa favored by 3...but not much push this week on getting it to 2.5.

Yeah, I think I said it earlier this week, but I hopped on it at +3. This will be the third Gopher line I've been on this year.

Fun fact from @rodger on Twitter (as of 11/10):
- SP+ is 31-10 ATS this year if the Vegas line is off by at least 3 points
- In games where the line is off by at least 3 points, if the wrong team is favored, SP+ is 6-0 on the money line

SP+ has Minnesota -3, Vegas has the Gophers +3.
Here's hoping the Gophers can make it 7-0 this week.
 
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There is a lot of narrative going around that this is gonna be a let down game, I'm hearing it almost everywhere.

The betters must be buying into that.

Maybe, but I love that we are still underdogs for this game....sure the coaches do as well. Every little bit helps though I doubt they are having to work real hard to get the guys up for a rivalry game against Iowa.
 


Maybe, but I love that we are still underdogs for this game....sure the coaches do as well. Every little bit helps though I doubt they are having to work real hard to get the guys up for a rivalry game against Iowa.

Being an underdog can be a motivator!
 

Is there any proof of the "letdown theory"? Particularly after a big win? It seems like pseudoscience. If anything I would think a team would be more focused, engaged, and present as the stakes rise.
 



Is there any proof of the "letdown theory"? Particularly after a big win? It seems like pseudoscience. If anything I would think a team would be more focused, engaged, and present as the stakes rise.

It's definitely a common narrative, but I've never seen anyone do any analysis if it is actually a thing.
 


Is there any proof of the "letdown theory"? Particularly after a big win? It seems like pseudoscience. If anything I would think a team would be more focused, engaged, and present as the stakes rise.

I think if anything, Iowa will be demoralized coming off of another loss which effectively eliminates them from West division contention. They have much less to play for now.

And on the flip side, a win against Iowa virtually locks down the west for us, baring a meltdown at Iowa.
 

Most still have Iowa favored by 3...but not much push this week on getting it to 2.5.

I'm not seeing any places in Vegas with +3.5. Steady at +3 with the money 2 to 1 on the Gophs. Would have thought the line would move towards Gophs.
 



The betting houses do not care who wins. They make their money from the commission they get from every bet.
Their perfect situation is to have the money bet be the same for both teams. It seems more money is being bet on IA so to even things up they make IA -3.5 instead of -3 and hope more money is bet on MN.
Why is this so hard to understand? The initial line often comes from Sagarin but changes as the bets come in.
 


Is there any proof of the "letdown theory"? Particularly after a big win? It seems like pseudoscience. If anything I would think a team would be more focused, engaged, and present as the stakes rise.

I don't really think so. Losses after big wins just stick out more to fans because the win creates expectations that fall flat after the loss. I don't think winning big games actually causes teams to lose the next one.
 

Is there any proof of the "letdown theory"? Particularly after a big win? It seems like pseudoscience. If anything I would think a team would be more focused, engaged, and present as the stakes rise.

FWIW, Ben Leber who played in the NFL thinks so. Not that we can’t win, but that it won’t be possible for the Gophers to be as hyped and focused coming into this game as they were after the build-up to PSU. He also picked us to win, but feels there will be a letdown and they may not be as “on-point” as they were last week.


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FWIW, Ben Leber who played in the NFL thinks so. Not that we can’t win, but that it won’t be possible for the Gophers to be as hyped and focused coming into this game as they were after the build-up to PSU. He also picked us to win, but feels there will be a letdown and they may not be as “on-point” as they were last week.


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Coming off a big win, everyone is in on the Gopher bandwagon - this is the type of game the Gophers have traditionally lost over the years.
Iowa will really want to knock off the Gophers here and they have a very local crowd behind them. I can see why many people are betting on the Hawkeyes to knock them off.

Something feels very different this time though. The Gophers are in uncharted territory and PJ Fleck has this team pretty grounded into taking it one game at a time. I think the team has its attention 100 per cent on Iowa and is not taking them for granted, either. As for the bettors, the Gophers have covered 7 Big Ten games in a row and I would not be betting against them right now. QB Tanner Morgan is the real deal, they have 3 outstanding wideouts with 3 outstanding running backs. That's just a lot of weapons to contend with and its pretty tough to stop all of them unless you can really outscore them. Still going with Gophers winning 27-24 in a real meat grinder type of game that Iowa is famous for.....GO GOPHERS!
 



You're reading that wrong. It's Iowa - 3 everywhere at about -110 to make that bet. So Iowa favored by 3 points. It's so weird. I don't frequently bet on sports, but my brother did put $100 on MN moneyline yesterday at +130. Can you imagine?

Fixed it Didn't read it wrong. Typed it wrong. ;)

Seems odd but just speaks to all the skeptics out there. Nearly all of them talking about the shaky Non-Conference schedule and the Gophers history at Kinnick. Ignoring what's happened starting with the Purdue game.

Gotta wonder if the line actually does move starting today. Or if the "late money bettors" just want to completely stay away from the game
 




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