Analysis and Discussion: Gophers are No. 8 in the College Football Playoff Rankings

DanielHouse

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by: Daniel House (@DanielHouseNFL)

The College Football Playoff committee released its latest rankings and Minnesota is slotted at No. 8. After a 31-26 win over No. 4 Penn State, the Gophers moved up nine spots. This is the largest jump into the top 10 by any team in the College Football playoff era. The committee placed Utah (No. 7) in the slot above Minnesota. If the Gophers can pick up another win at No. 20 Iowa this week, they may move into the top-six next Tuesday.

"We were really impressed with what Minnesota did [last week]," College Football Playoff Director Rob Mullens said during the rankings show.

Based upon the outcome of these rankings, the committee clearly wants to see Minnesota win a quality road game. This week’s matchup against the Hawkeyes provides the program with another chance to make a statement. If the Gophers can improve to 10-0, the committee will likely consider placing Minnesota in the No. 4-6 range next week.

The latest College Football Playoff top-four included:

1. LSU
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Georgia

This week, fourth-ranked Georgia travels to No. 12 Auburn. The game could have big implications for many teams in the playoff race. If Georgia loses and Minnesota defeats Iowa, the committee may place the Gophers into another tier. Alabama is ranked No. 5 and will end the regular season with a difficult road game against Auburn. Oregon was slotted at six and has favorable matchups versus Arizona and Oregon State. In addition to those three teams, No. 7 Utah's toughest remaining game is at home against Colorado.

Minnesota has the most difficult remaining strength of schedule among No. 4 Georgia, No. 5 Alabama, No. 6 Oregon and No. 7 Utah. The big question is how much the committee will value the Big Ten if Minnesota goes undefeated in the regular season. If that indeed happens, the Big Ten Championship may determine whether the Gophers are considered for the College Football playoff semifinal.

No matter what, Minnesota has already created a strong resume and could be in contention for a Rose Bowl bid.

After Saturday's upset win over Penn State, Minnesota is 9-0 for the first time since 1904. The program continues to gain national attention and was featured in multiple segments during the official rankings show. ESPN announced last week’s game against Penn State was ABC’s highest-rated noon kickoff game in nearly three seasons.

Minnesota is one of the nation’s most consistent and efficient teams. The Gophers have the second-most efficient passing game in the country, according to CollegeFootballData’s Expected Points Added metric. The combination of quarterback Tanner Morgan’s efficiency and Minnesota’s explosive pass catchers have been tough for opponents to scheme against. The Gophers also rank sixth in time of possession (34:19) and use a balanced attack to stress opposing defenses.

On the other side of the ball, Minnesota has the third-most efficient pass defense in the country, according to College Football Data’s Expected Points Added metric. The Gophers’ defensive backs continue to make a big impact and play a pivotal role in Joe Rossi’s defensive scheme. Head coach P.J. Fleck said splitting up coaching responsibilities at safety and cornerback has made a big difference. Minnesota hired former Maine head coach Joe Harasymiak to coach the safeties. They also added Rod Chance, one of the top cornerback coaches in the country. As I discussed this spring, Chance learned from Vanderbilt head coach Derek Mason, who is known for his ability to develop and teach refined cornerback techniques.

“We didn't have a pass interference last week and we had seven, eight PBU's. The guys were in the right positions, they played their technique perfectly, and that was the first game that I saw across the board from our secondary that they played their technique as well as they could have played it and been in the right position and fundamentally sound the entire game,” head coach P.J. Fleck said Tuesday. “And that's hard to do. Because it takes a long time to get to that point. But you got to give those two coaches credit.”

When breaking down the analytics and studying film, the Gophers are one of the most efficient teams in the country. They are disciplined and have committed the fifth-fewest penalties per game (4.2). Minnesota ranks tenth in turnover margin per game (0.78), fifth in red zone touchdowns and eighth in overall red zone conversion percentage (93%). Those are all key metrics that contribute to sustainable success. P.J. Fleck said execution in the “green zone” was a big emphasis during the offseason.

“We show on the screen in team meetings for our players, these are the top NFL teams in the green zone, these are the bottom teams in the green zone. And usually you can make a comparison. Same thing on third down, same thing with the ball,” Fleck said. “So again showing them how important, when they get down there, it's a complete different mentality. We have to find a way to put points on the board. We were 2-2 when we got down there and they were, I think, 4-6, and I think that's a big difference in the game.”

If the Gophers continue to play with this type of efficiency and discipline, they can compete with any team in the country. When that happens, Minnesota will gain more respect from the committee and put themselves in contention for the top-four.

(article photo: University of Minnesota)
 
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Utah ahead of us is a joke, but it doesn’t really matter as long as we keep winning.
 

Great post Daniel and not going to complain about 8.
Hope you can post something about the game with gifs soon.
 

Thank you Daniel. Great as always.
 

Utah ahead of us is a joke, but it doesn’t really matter as long as we keep winning.

Doesn't matter. Utah hasn't beaten anyone. Win at Iowa this week, we'll pass them. Head to the Big Ten Championship game undefeated, we'll be in the top 4.
 


So who has Alabama, Clemson, Utah and Oregon beat? And look at who Georgia has lost to. We should be ranked 3rd right now.
 

Thank you Mr. House! What a great season! Row The Boat Ski U Mah Go Gophers!
 

Doesn't matter. Utah hasn't beaten anyone. Win at Iowa this week, we'll pass them. Head to the Big Ten Championship game undefeated, we'll be in the top 4.

While I agree, keep winning and none of these rankings matter. Where it does matter is if we happen to drop one of our last few games. If that happens we are almost certainly on the outside of the playoff looking in. Where all these other teams who haven’t beaten anyone but already have a loss have a leg up on us for a CFP semifinal because of where they started the season or the “eye test”.

Does anyone else think we would actually have a shot at a top 4 ranking at the end of the year with one loss?


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