Gophers average 13.9 pts. over ATS in Big Ten season

cjbfbp

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I don't know if anyone has posted this yet, but here are the Gophers' performances against the spread in Big Ten play:


28-Sep Away Purdue 2 W by 7 9 (exceeded spread by this amount)
5-Oct Home Illinois -14 W by 23 9
12-Oct Home Nebraska -7.5 W by 27 19.5
19-Oct Away Rutgers -28.5 W by 35 6.5
26-Oct Home Maryland -14 W by 42 28
9-Nov Home Penn State 6.5 W by 5 11.5

As you can see, the Gophers have exceeded the spread in every game in the Big Ten (after falling below the spread in two games and tying the spread in one game of non-conference).

The average of these numbers exceeding the spread is 13.9 +. Perhaps the number is a bit inflated by the huge excess in the Maryland game. If we take the median excess over spread, the number is 10.25+.

If we take only the two away games (perhaps relevant to the Iowa game), the average is 7.5.

So, we are a 2 point underdog (last I checked) to Iowa at Kinnick. If we use the road average, we should win this game by 5 or 6. If we go with the average (or even median) of all Big Ten games, our margin of victory would be a little larger.
 


Let's go with the bigger difference, Gophers win 28-17.

Well, that would be about the median. I like it, although I'd like us to score a little more. I wouldn't want Iowa to be the only team to hold us below 30 in Big Ten play. How about we beat them 31-20?
 

Well, that would be about the median. I like it, although I'd like us to score a little more. I wouldn't want Iowa to be the only team to hold us below 30 in Big Ten play. How about we beat them 31-20?

Iowa is currently favored by ~2.5, so 11 point win would put us right about 13.9.

31-20 is also fine by me.
 




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