SP+ Week 13

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BeerFueledFF

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BeerFueledFF said:
SP+ has us slip down to 13th overall in their efficiency metrics, as the value of special teams got increased this week which punished us quite a lot.

We are viewed at 20.5 points better than an average CFB team (closest to 0 is Duke this year).

Offense ranks 7th overall
Defense ranks 25th
Special Teams ranks 92nd

https://www.espn.com/college-footba...+-rankings-week-11-big-games-mean-big-changes
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Also didn't help that the Gophers turtled in the 4th quarter - which hurt explosiveness rankings, and had their defense stomped on in 4-5 very long drives.
SP+ came out of this week thinking that PSU was the better team.

They did make a change at PK, so Fleck knows it's a problem, but I don't know how much that's actually going to help. Minnesota's entire kicking game looked bad Saturday.
 

Herbers has been solid all year.

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hello-world said:
Also didn't help that the Gophers turtled in the 4th quarter - which hurt explosiveness rankings, and had their defense stomped on in 4-5 very long drives.
SP+ came out of this week thinking that PSU was the better team.

They did make a change at PK, so Fleck knows it's a problem, but I don't know how much that's actually going to help. Minnesota's entire kicking game looked bad Saturday.
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Place kicking change due to minor injury or further injury prevention. (Radio or podcast)

I am fairly certain that however the stats are manipulated, this ranking system tends to favor SEC/ACC style ball. No matter it strikes me as being flawed. Though interesting, this discussion is backward facing.

PSU did enough well to win many games Saturday. Fortunately Minnesota did better on the scoreboard in the game that was actually played.

Hopefully the Iowa game is a win that is supported by overwhelming stats.
 

To my knowledge the offense has now risen to the highest rank ever in the S&P+/SP+ era. The defense dropped 1 spot vs last week. Special teams continues to be an Achilles heel.

Rare air for this program. Really, really impressive and an incredible jump from the last couple years. RTB.
 


Do SP+ rankings matter much in such an unpredictable sport as college football? Upsets and let downs happen every weekend. Stats and metrics can only get you so far. It’s always nice, and intriguing, to look at the rankings and stuff. But there are so many intangibles, that’s what makes all of this so much fun.


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mjfelton15 said:
Do SP+ rankings matter much in such an unpredictable sport as college football? Upsets and let downs happen every weekend. Stats and metrics can only get you so far. It’s always nice, and intriguing, to look at the rankings and stuff. But there are so many intangibles, that’s what makes all of this so much fun.


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Less informative than eg baseball but still interesting and definitely worth following. And, the numbers get more accurate as the season goes on. I wouldn’t really quibble too much with these rankings to be honest. Obviously one or two big plays a game can turn a football game, injuries, matchups, etc. The offensive, def rankings feel about right based on the old eye test.
 

Pompous Elitist said:
Less informative than eg baseball but still interesting and definitely worth following. And, the numbers get more accurate as the season goes on. I wouldn’t really quibble too much with these rankings to be honest. Feels about right based on the old eye test.
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Do you put any trust in the ESPN FPI? Because they think we only have a 39% matchup. That feels like total bull.


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Pompous Elitist said:
Less informative than eg baseball but still interesting and definitely worth following. And, the numbers get more accurate as the season goes on. I wouldn’t really quibble too much with these rankings to be honest. Obviously one or two big plays a game can turn a football game, injuries, matchups, etc. The offensive, def rankings feel about right based on the old eye test.
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And 39% against Wisconsin too.


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mjfelton15 said:
Do you put any trust in the ESPN FPI? Because they think we only have a 39% matchup. That feels like total bull.


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Personally, nope. Then again, nobody really understands all the different systems except the guys that created them. SP+ has always been most forthcoming about the factors they look at so it’s my favorite. Obviously it’s far from perfect but it’s a relatively objective system which is far better than a committee or polls. The best system of all is wins and losses.
 

SP+ seems to do a better job of reflecting where our team is overall compared to FPI which seems to significantly underrate the Gophers.

Our offense is elite, defense is good but could be better, and special teams is a bit of a nightmare. SP+ matches all of those.
 

What is special teams doing that has us ranked so low? (Not a shot/complaint, legitimately curious)
 

What would SP+ predict as a spread for the remaining games -- and how do you figure that out? Iowa +3 on the Vegas line feels ridiculous to me, so I was curious was statistics would've put it at.
 



What is special teams doing that has us ranked so low? (Not a shot/complaint, legitimately curious)
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Blocked FG returned for TD
Numerous other missed FGs / XP
Multiple kickoffs out of bounds and numerous large returns on others that weren't -- especially early in the season
Herbers ranked in the 100s for punting average (although I haven't looked at more advanced metrics)
 

MGGopher said:
What would SP+ predict as a spread for the remaining games -- and how do you figure that out? Iowa +3 on the Vegas line feels ridiculous to me, so I was curious was statistics would've put it at.
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I don't know the exact numbers, but based on what I remember home field is worth ~2.5 points in SP+, so that being said:

@ Iowa - Gophers -2.6
@Northwestern - Gophers -23.4
Wisconsin - Gophers -1.7
 

mjfelton15 said:
Do you put any trust in the ESPN FPI? Because they think we only have a 39% matchup. That feels like total bull.


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What I can't figure out regarding ESPN FPI is that before the season, they gave us 64.6% chance of beating Wisconsin. Since then, all we have done is win every single game. And maybe Wisconsin is better this year than their predicted preseason, but I still can't figure out how we drop 25.4% chance with how 2019 has played out?
 

WinLoseOrTy said:
What I can't figure out regarding ESPN FPI is that before the season, they gave us 64.6% chance of beating Wisconsin. Since then, all we have done is win every single game. And maybe Wisconsin is better this year than their predicted preseason, but I still can't figure out how we drop 25.4% chance with how 2019 has played out?
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They aren't measuring this based on Wins and Losses, but I don't know exactly what goes into FPI.

FPI seems like it is still punishing us really harshly for how we started the season, which makes me think a team like ours who starts slow and improves throughout the year might struggle with some of these advanced metrics if they don't begin to fade older data in some way.
 


There’s a reason MN continues to destroy the Vegas game spreads which are presumably at least set in part by systems like Sagarin or FPI which many bettors believe in, and that continue to underrate the Gophers. I’m fine with the predicted win percentages by these lesser systems as maybe on the fringes it keeps the guys hungrier and on their toes. I don’t think Iowa matches up real well. We’ll see...road game yeah yeah.
 

Pompous Elitist said:
There’s a reason MN continues to destroy the Vegas game spreads which are presumably at least set in part by systems like Sagarin or FPI which many bettors believe in, and that continue to underrate the Gophers. I’m fine with the predicted win percentages by these lesser systems as maybe on the fringes it keeps the guys hungrier and on their toes. I don’t think Iowa matches up real well. We’ll see...road game yeah yeah.
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Yeah, I really like the way we match up in our last 3 games. Our offense is good enough to score on anyone, and our defense is good enough to slow down the one dimensional offenses Iowa, Northwestern and Wisconsin bring to the table.
 

BeerFueledFF said:
I don't know the exact numbers, but based on what I remember home field is worth ~2.5 points in SP+, so that being said:

@ Iowa - Gophers -2.6
@Northwestern - Gophers -23.4
Wisconsin - Gophers -1.7
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Gracias. Considering SP+ is whipping Vegas lines by a good amount this year, it seems the Gophers would be a smart bet on Saturday for those who gamble. You're essentially getting over 5 points from what the stats would say is a fair line. Who will be the first to post their ticket?
 

mjfelton15 said:
Do SP+ rankings matter much in such an unpredictable sport as college football? Upsets and let downs happen every weekend. Stats and metrics can only get you so far. It’s always nice, and intriguing, to look at the rankings and stuff. But there are so many intangibles, that’s what makes all of this so much fun.


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It performs well predicting games, but there is a reason it's taken longer for advanced stats/analytics to catch on in football. Sample sizes are smaller and systems are more complex creating a ton of variables to track and measure.
 

Ski U Master said:
It performs well predicting games, but there is a reason it's taken longer for advanced stats/analytics to catch on in football. Sample sizes are smaller and systems are more complex creating a ton of variables to track and measure.
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Yep, there is significantly more outcomes for what is good and bad in football, where as games like basketball and baseball have limited outcomes on a given play/at-bat.
 

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