The Experts Begin Predicting the UM/PSU Outcome

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Pat Forde (now of Sports Illustrated:

Penn State at Minnesota (16). The other clash of unbeatens. This is probably the biggest Gophers home game since Nov. 18, 1961, when No. 5 Minnesota beat No. 7 Purdue. It’s the first time the Gophers have been 8-0 since 1941, when they only played eight games.

Tireless hype man P.J. Fleck lobbied for ESPN’s College GameDay to make its first-ever stop at Minnesota, but was denied. That’s the only loss Fleck has taken this season. As it currently stands, he has the highest winning percentage (.581) of any Gophers coach since Bernie Bierman, who led the program from 1932-50, minus a few years during World War II.

Now here’s the catch: Minnesota has played nobody. Fans love to say that about other programs, but in this case it is 100% accurate. Per the Sagarin Ratings, the highest-ranked opponent the Gophers have faced is No. 60 Nebraska. It’s hard, in the Power 5, to get this far into a season without having played anyone.

Penn State, which checks in at No. 5, will be a completely different animal.

What to watch: Minnesota has cranked up its running game since conference play started and ranks second in Big Ten play in rushing yards per game at 253 yards per game and 5.41 yards per rush. That collides with a Penn State defense that leads the Big Ten in rushing defense, allowing just 67 yards per game and 2.04 yards per rush.

Dash pick: Penn State 27, Minnesota 17.


Pat's wrong.
 

I wonder:

When these experts write this stuff, how much of Minnesota's season (and Penn State's season) have they seen before they make their predictions?

Do they watch video of each team's games, and then make a prediction? Seems unlikely, but maybe they do.

Or are they sort of winging it?
 

What winning percentage is he citing? Fleck's overall career record is 50-35 (.588), his record at Minnesota is 20-13 (.606), and his Big Ten record at Minnesota is 10-13 (.435). His overall is the closest, so I'll assume that's what he's trying to go with, and if so, the statement is inaccurate, with Kill and Holtz both having higher career winning percentages. If he's trying to say record as Minnesota coach (which would make way more sense), then great, but his number isn't close.
 

dpodoll68 said:
What winning percentage is he citing? Fleck's overall career record is 50-35 (.588), his record at Minnesota is 20-13 (.606), and his Big Ten record at Minnesota is 10-13 (.435). His overall is the closest, so I'll assume that's what he's trying to go with, and if so, the statement is inaccurate, with Kill and Holtz both having higher career winning percentages. If he's trying to say record as Minnesota coach (which would make way more sense), then great, but his number isn't close.
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I think he probably was pulling that stat from 18-13, as that math works... Missed two 1-0 seasons.
 

RememberMurray said:
I wonder:

When these experts write this stuff, how much of Minnesota's season (and Penn State's season) have they seen before they make their predictions?

Do they watch video of each team's games, and then make a prediction? Seems unlikely, but maybe they do.

Or are they sort of winging it?
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Aren’t we all? He quoted Sagarin rankings and if you believe in Sagarin we are 14 point dogs. SP+ OTOH has us as only 2 point underdogs. The Vegas line implies the betting public sees us as just about touchdown losers. He reasonably pointed out we are a good team but haven’t really been tested by another top 25 team and this is a consensus top 10 team. I don’t think the general public is going to see a pundit throwing a dart at a 10 point margin surprising or even shocking.

Personally, I hope every pundit disrespects the team and predicts even larger margins of loss. Every bit of motivation may help.
 


We'll.. we have beat two teams that have beat ranked teams in Illinois with it's win over Wisconsin, and Georgia Southern with it's win over App St. Nebraska is not the best team the gophers have beaten. So that statement is silly.

Sent from my Moto Z (2) using Tapatalk
 

Pompous Elitist said:
Aren’t we all? He quoted Sagarin rankings and if you believe in Sagarin we are 14 point dogs. SP+ OTOH has us as only 2 point underdogs. The Vegas line implies the betting public sees us as just about touchdown losers. He reasonably pointed out we are a good team but haven’t really been tested by another top 25 team and this is a consensus top 10 team. I don’t think the general public is going to see a pundit throwing a dart at a 10 point margin surprising or even shocking.

Personally, I hope every pundit disrespects the team and predicts even larger margins of loss. Every bit of motivation may help.
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Yes, Pomp; we 'all' are winging it, to some extent.

Some of 'us', however, are being touted as 'experts' (which is an actual word in the English language, and therefore has some meaning, to me at least).

Also, those supposed 'experts' are presumably being paid to express their opinions. Presumably, because they are, in fact, 'experts'. Which makes it not exactly the same as a guy expressing his opinion an a chat board... right?

My upbringing was pretty strong in the area of work ethic; if someone was paying you to do a job, you did your best and put forth a strong effort. It's how I was raised. Also, if you put yourself forward as an 'expert', well... that was supposed to mean you made some sort of effort. Hopefully an earnest one.

Anyhoo... do you think these guys bother to watch any video?

I know I do, and I'm not even being paid to do it.

I love Daniel House and his stuff; and it appears to me to be the product of real, honest work. It impresses me. But then, I'm 'old school', I guess.
 
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RememberMurray said:
I wonder:

When these experts write this stuff, how much of Minnesota's season (and Penn State's season) have they seen before they make their predictions?

Do they watch video of each team's games, and then make a prediction? Seems unlikely, but maybe they do.

Or are they sort of winging it?
Click to expand...

There is a lot of winging it early in the season but at this point people have a pretty solid read on most teams. My guess is they don't watch a ton of game film but they do watch highlights and read recaps of previous games.

I won't be surprised if most of the media predictions for this game have Penn State winning in the 7-10 point range which would be a fair prediction and not a slight to the Gophers. The only thing that would be a shot at the U would be to predict a Penn State blowout but I will be surprised if we see a lot of those predictions.
 

RememberMurray said:
Yes, Pomp; we 'all' are winging it, to some extent.

Some of 'us', however, are being touted as 'experts' (which is an actual word in the English language, and therefore has some meaning, to me at least).

Also, those supposed 'experts' are presumably being paid to express their opinions. Presumably, because they are, in fact, 'experts'. Which makes it not exactly the same as a guy expressing his opinion an a chat board... right?

My upbringing was pretty strong in the area of work ethic; if someone was paying you to do a job, you did your best and put forth a strong effort. It's how I was raised. Also, if you put yourself forward as an 'expert', well... that was supposed to mean you made some sort of effort. Hopefully an earnest one.

Anyhoo... do you think these guys bother to watch any video?

I know I do, and I'm not even being paid to do it.

I love Daniel House and his stuff; and it appears to me to be the product of real, honest work. It impresses me. But then, I'm 'old school', I guess.
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Forde to my knowledge is a sportswriter, not really an expert. I consider someone like Mase, or Urban Meyer an expert (or any other professional coach and many former players). Some are obviously better than others, but all long time coaches and particularly college and pro probably have some insight and opinions on matchups and XO stuff the average sportswriter doesn’t have.

That’s not to say some sports journalists aren’t really good analysts or at least have a good feel. There are some writers/announcers that have opinions that carry more weight (to me). That’s doesnt mean they are anything more than educated guesses.
 



Pompous Elitist said:
Forde to my knowledge is a sportswriter, not really an expert. I consider someone like Mase, or Urban Meyer an expert (or any other professional coach and many former players). Some are obviously better than others, but all long time coaches and particularly college and pro probably have some insight and opinions on matchups and XO stuff the average sportswriter doesn’t have.

That’s not to say some sports journalists aren’t really good analysts or at least have a good feel. There are some writers/announcers that have opinions that carry more weight (to me). That’s doesnt mean they are anything more than educated guesses.
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That's true.

And in the end, nobody can predict (with certainty) which team will win.

Yet fans must really enjoy reading about other people's guesses, because there are certainly a plethora of predictions being made before every game.
 

Since Clucko is a coin toss, I like our odds for its pick.
 

RememberMurray said:
That's true.

And in the end, nobody can predict (with certainty) which team will win.

Yet fans must really enjoy reading about other people's guesses, because there are certainly a plethora of predictions being made before every game.
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I’d argue there is a phase of fanhood where one craves recognition and adulation from pundits and fans of other teams even when a team hasn’t earned it yet. Some take this to absurdly militant levels. When one moves beyond this phase and accepts the world and people for the way it is and they are rather than the way they want it and them to be fanhood gets a lot easier both for them and the people around them. One can stop feigning indignation for perceived slights; or stop chastising fans, writers, pundits, analysts for holding opinions slightly deviant from oneself.
 

Pompous Elitist said:
I’d argue there is a phase of fanhood where one craves recognition and adulation from pundits and fans of other teams even when a team hasn’t earned it yet. Some take this to absurdly militant levels. When one moves beyond this phase and accepts the world and people for the way it is and they are rather than the way they want it and them to be fanhood gets a lot easier both for them and the people around them. One can stop feigning indignation for perceived slights; or stop chastising fans, writers, pundits, analysts for holding opinions slightly deviant from oneself.
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Uh-huh.

"Absurdly militant", you say. Hmmm... That's a really strongly-worded description.

What exactly would something "absurdly militant" look like?

Any concrete examples of specific "absurd militancy" you would care to re-post? These examples would, of course, be both "absurd" and, uhhh... "militant"... by definition.

Or, maybe some specific examples of "feigned indignation"?
 




IceBoxGopher said:
At College Football News, the consensus pick is Penn State, with 13 writers going with the Nittany Lions and two taking the Gophers.

Sports Chat Place is going with a narrow Penn State victory.
I am going to take Minnesota to cover, but this can be a game that the Golden Gophers could win. Be safe and take Minnesota and the points. Final score prediction, Penn State will win and Minnesota covers, 31-28.
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Pete Fiutak picked Maryland to beat us, was his pick of the week. So count me as thrilled that he is picking PSU to cover.
 



The safe Pick is PSU. The SEXY pick is the ROWphers
 

Sporting News adds their two cents:

No. 5 Penn State (-7) at No. 13 Minnesota
The Gophers get a showcase game at home, and both teams had a bye week to add new wrinkles. Penn State won the last meeting 29-26 in a 2016 thriller that set the course for where the program is now. This is right on the line.

Penn State wins 24-16 and COVERS the spread.
 



CBS gives 3 of four pickers to Penn St. But lots of love for the Gophs...

 

We will need 31 points to have a 50% chance of winning the game.
 

Sparlimb said:
CBS gives 3 of four pickers to Penn St. But lots of love for the Gophs...

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Never thought I’d like a niner from that era (except Fahnhorst of course).


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

Bleacher Report is going with Penn State, 27-24
Since a scare-filled opening to the season, Minnesota has outscored its last four opponents 168-41. Though the competition level wasn't high, that's a dominant stretch. We're still leaning toward Penn State because of a defense that allows fewer than four yards per snap, but Minnesota's aerial efficiency gives the Gophers a shot.

Writers at 247 Sports are both going with Penn State, one 28-24 and the other 31-24
With a bye week to prepare, I have no question P.J. Fleck has the Gophers both juiced and prepared. That’s why I’m splitting the difference. Minnesota covers but Penn State pulls out a close, hard-earned win. Penn State’s defense is the reason it wins. The Gophers haven’t seen anything like it this year.

Minnesota is unbeaten, yes, and it's a challenging road game for fourth-ranked Penn State, but James Franklin's squad is better on both sides of the ball and the Gophers haven't faced a team of substance yet. Remember what happened last time Penn State faced a pivotal road game at Maryland? I realize the Terps aren't on Minnesota's level, but Penn State is focused coming out of its open week and should be able to execute

Sporting News is going with Penn State, 24-16
The Gophers get a showcase game at home, and both teams had a bye week to add new wrinkles. Penn State won the last meeting 29-26 in a 2016 thriller that set the course for where the program is now. This is right on the line. Penn State wins 24-16 and COVERS the spread.

Scarlet and Game (FanSided) is picking Penn State, 30-17.
The difference in the game will be Penn State’s defense... I do think the game is close. Penn State only scored 28 against Michigan and Michigan State and 17 against Iowa and Pitt. The Nittany Lions will force a couple of second half turnovers and break open a close game in the fourth quarter.
 

Sparlimb said:
CBS gives 3 of four pickers to Penn St. But lots of love for the Gophs...

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Man, heaping the love on the Gophers in a very knowledgeable fashion. Those dudes did their homework and clearly impressed...but mostly not enough to see Minnesota winning :) Thanks for sharing. Nice clip.
 

Will anyone nationally pick the Gophers? Nobody yet it seems. Cowards.
 


Dont know why anyone would be surprised or upset that national people are not picking MN. Its true we have not beaten anyone that good yet, and PSU has, they are also ranked #4 in the CFP standings. Win this game and MN will probably be picked to win every game the rest of the year.
 

gopherbadgerman said:
Dont know why anyone would be surprised or upset that national people are not picking MN. Its true we have not beaten anyone that good yet, and PSU has, they are also ranked #4 in the CFP standings. Win this game and MN will probably be picked to win every game the rest of the year.
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We might be able to lose this game and still be favored to win our last 3 outright.
 

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