Predicting the CFP Rankings

matt

Let's get weird
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Where do you predict the Gophers wind up in the first CFP rankings? What other predictions do you have for the first CFP ranking of the season?
 

I suspect committee will slot them at #12.

Behind all the other unbeatens (6)

Behind 1-loss teams Georgia, Oklahoma, Oregon, Utah

And behind 2-loss Auburn

Will catapult at least 3 slots if beat Penn State

How I’d slot the top 4?

1 LSU
2 Ohio State
3 Penn State
4 Alabama (by default over Clemson, both resumes suck)
 

I’m thinking 10-12 range and if we beat Penn State we will slot in 5-6 range
 

Take a moment and contemplate just how wonderful it is that we're having this conversation, this late in the season, and the Gophers are actually in the mix.
 



Fresno State with the late night win over Hawaii helps our cause. Need FSU to finish strong. SDSU got a W. Need GaSouthern to get some more good wins.
 



I suspect committee will slot them at #12.

Behind all the other unbeatens (6)

Behind 1-loss teams Georgia, Oklahoma, Oregon, Utah

And behind 2-loss Auburn

Will catapult at least 3 slots if beat Penn State

How I’d slot the top 4?

1 LSU
2 Ohio State
3 Penn State
4 Alabama (by default over Clemson, both resumes suck)

Pretty much my thoughts as well. You could argue flipping Ohio State and LSU, and PSU and Bama, but if the committee holds to their guidelines, Bama really should be slotted 4th right now.
 




My guess is 17. Behind 2 loss teams Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, Auburn, Notre Dame and even KSU as the committee will try and boost Oklahoma. PJ will sell the hell out of it to the team to kick it into another gear this weekend.
 

To be honest, if the committee has any integrity they should be right next to Clemson and Alabama. All have similar resumes.

Bama hasn’t struggled.
So they are first of the three.
Clemson struggles once. Second of the three.
Minnesota 3 times but all early, third of three.


Ranking resumes not teams (I value not losing)

LSU
Ohio state

Major gap

Penn State
Alabama
Clemson
Minnesota
Baylor
Georgia
Oklahoma
Oregon
Utah

Major gap

Florida
Auburn
Michigan
Notre Dame
Wisconsin
Iowa


Major gap

Memphis is the best of the next tier
 

I was curious about something: over the history of the CFP rankings, what is the farthest down a team has come from to land in the top 4 at the end?

The following shows the CFP ranking, over the six rankings they released in the season, for the top 4 teams in the last ranking (the Tues after the Conf Champ games)

2018: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_NCAA_Division_I_FBS_football_rankings#CFP_Rankings
1 Bama -- 1 1 1 1 1 1
2 Clemson - 2 2 2 2 2 2
3 Notre Dame - 4 3 3 3 3 3
4 OU - 7 6 6 6 5 4

2017: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_NCAA_Division_I_FBS_football_rankings#CFP_Rankings
1 Clemson -- 4 4 2 3 1 1
2 OU -- 5 5 4 4 3 2
3 Georgia -- 1 1 7 7 6 3
4 Bama -- 2 2 1 1 5 4

2016: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_NCAA_Division_I_FBS_football_rankings#CFP_Rankings
1 Bama -- 1 1 1 1 1 1
2 Clemson -- 2 2 4 4 3 2
3 Ohio State -- 6 5 2 2 2 3
4 Washington -- 5 4 6 5 4 4

2015: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_NCAA_Division_I_FBS_football_rankings#CFP_Rankings
1 Clemson -- 1 1 1 1 1 1
2 Bama -- 4 2 2 2 2 2
3 Mich State -- 7 13 9 5 5 3
4 OU -- 15 12 7 3 3 4

2014: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_NCAA_Division_I_FBS_football_rankings#CFP_Rankings (7 rankings)
1 Bama -- 6 5 5 1 1 1 1
2 Oregon -- 5 4 2 2 2 2 2
3 Florida St -- 2 2 3 3 3 4 3
4 Ohio St -- 16 14 8 6 6 5 4


Furthest a top 4 team came from, in the initial ranking:
Ohio State #16 (2014)
Oklahoma #15 (2015)

Furthest a top 4 team came from, in the intermediate rankings:
Ohio State #14 (2014, 2nd ranking)
Michigan State #13 (2015, 2nd ranking)
Oklahoma #12 (2015, 2nd ranking)


But in the last three seasons (2016-2018), no top 4 team has started, or had an intermediate ranking, lower than #7.

The team that most resembles us in the last three seasons is Washington, which is not a traditional helmet school and started the first ranking at 8-0. They improved to 9-0 over unranked Cal, then lost to #20 USC at home. They beat #23 Washington State on the road, then beat #9 Colorado in the PAC champ game, to make the top 4.

If you think of their USC game as our game vs Penn St, their road game vs Washington St as our road game vs Iowa, and their champ game over Colorado as our home game with Wisconsin, it matches up decently. Trouble for us is, then we have the champ game vs Ohio St (most likely).
 
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My top 15 prediction:

1. Ohio St
2. LSU
3. Penn St
4. Alabama
5. Clemson
6. Oregon
7. Florida
8. Utah
9. Baylor
10. Auburn
11. Minnesota
12. Michigan
13. Georgia
14. Memphis
15. Oklahoma
 

I am sure they will be somewhere between 11-13, as when it all boils down to it this is an opinion poll too.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 


I'm pretty sure that a 9-0 Gopher team that just beat the #5 team is going to be ranked ahead of all most all the 1 loss teams and all the 2 loss teams.
Bank it!

Let's just hope we find out!

Go Gophers!
 

If we beat PSU, I'd say we end up around #6.

I think this week we will be #10.
 

Closest recent comparison for the 2019 Gophers is probably the 2017 Wisconsin team. They were 8-0 going into the first CFP ranking, and hadn't played a top 25 ranked team yet. In fact, they only played two ranked teams in the regular season. That could happen to us as well, if Wisconsin beats Iowa by a large enough margin this week.

AP/Coaches had Wisc at #4 in the Week 9 ranking, but the first CFP ranking started them at #9. They'd go on to be 12-0, but lose to Ohio State in the champ game by a score of 21-27.


That is probably the closest they've come to taking that last step, which they've never been able to take since Alvarez.
 

Just being on the initial list is all that matters at this point. Winning games will resolve the rest.
 

My top 15 prediction:

1. Ohio St
2. LSU
3. Penn St
4. Alabama
5. Clemson
6. Oregon
7. Florida
8. Utah
9. Baylor
10. Auburn
11. Minnesota
12. Michigan
13. Georgia
14. Memphis
15. Oklahoma

Why would Florida be ahead of Georgia?
 

We will not get into the 5-6 range with a win. They’ll drop more than we rise

Why though? The counterargument for us has always been that we haven't played anyone, thus we are unproven. If we beat a top 5 team, what other argument is there?
 

Why though? The counterargument for us has always been that we haven't played anyone, thus we are unproven. If we beat a top 5 team, what other argument is there?

If we win, PSU will suddenly be an unproven team who hasn't beaten anyone of significance.

Almost lost to Pitt.

Only won @Iowa due to 2 Iowa turnovers.

Lucky to beat Michigan who dominated them in yardage statistics and turned the ball over to PSU.

Michigan State is not good.

From the looks of this, we better win the turnover battle!
 
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Take a moment and contemplate just how wonderful it is that we're having this conversation, this late in the season, and the Gophers are actually in the mix.

Bravo this post! I never dreamed the Gophers would be 8-0 at this point.
 

1. LSU
2. Ohio State
3. Alabama
4. Penn State
5. Clemson
6. Oregon
7. Auburn
8. Utah
9. Georgia
10. Minnesota
11. Baylor
12. Oklahoma
13. Florida
14. Wisconsin
15. Iowa
16. Michigan
17. Memphis
18. Cincinnati
19. Wake Forest
20. Kansas State
21. Indiana
22. Notre Dame
23. Boise State
24. Texas
25. San Diego State
 

My guess is 17. Behind 2 loss teams Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, Auburn, Notre Dame and even KSU as the committee will try and boost Oklahoma. PJ will sell the hell out of it to the team to kick it into another gear this weekend.

100% nailed the first part. Just need PJ to deliver the second
 


17 vs 4. I liked 13 vs 5 better.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

100% nailed the first part. Just need PJ to deliver the second

Holy crap dude, that's unreal. Can you lemme know what the final score will be on Saturday? I'd rather not be stressed out while watching. Thanks!
 




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