Joel Klatt dissects why Minnesota-Penn State could ultimately decide B1G West race

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Appearing on the Big Ten Network on Wednesday, CFB on FOX analyst Joel Klatt broke down the implications of the upcoming matchup. According to Klatt, this game could actually go a long way toward deciding who wins the B1G West:

“If they (Minnesota) were to win next week, that would be a no-brainer that they would be in the (Playoff) hunt,” Klatt began.

“And they would certainly have the inside track to get to Indianapolis and potentially a matchup with Ohio State in the B1G Championship Game. Because they already have a two-game lead, so really the division for them comes down to that game against Penn State when you really boil it down.”

BTN provided the clip on Twitter:

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Go Gophers!!
 

Yes and no... the Gophers would be in unbelievable position with a W over Penn State. The Gophers would have a 3 game lead over the loser of the Wisky-Iowa game and maintain a two game lead over the winner with only three to play. But a Gophers loss just means they need some Ws down the stretch over at least Northwestern and the winner of the Iowa-Wisky game.
 

It certainly could, but I think it's pretty unlikely that this game is the difference. Most realiatic scenarios for us winning the division involve us beating the winner of Iowa/WI. That game is substantially more likely to be the difference.
 

The PSU game is as close to meaningless in the B1G West as it could be. If we lose or win, still need to win two of the 3 remaining games. Difference would be we would have to beat the Iowa/Wisconsin winner if we lose to PSU.
 

Otis said:
The PSU game is as close to meaningless in the B1G West as it could be. If we lose or win, still need to win two of the 3 remaining games. Difference would be we would have to beat the Iowa/Wisconsin winner if we lose to PSU.
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If we beat PSU, we would only need to win one more IF that one is the winner of WI/Iowa. That seems like the only likely scenario where this games makes a difference.

We do need this one for our CFP resume.
 


A win over Penn State would prove that we should be favored in our remaining matchups. That is the significance of the matchup.
 

year of the gopher said:
Yes and no... the Gophers would be in unbelievable position with a W over Penn State. The Gophers would have a 3 game lead over the loser of the Wisky-Iowa game and maintain a two game lead over the winner with only three to play. But a Gophers loss just means they need some Ws down the stretch over at least Northwestern and the winner of the Iowa-Wisky game.
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If the Gophers beat Northwestern, then if they beat the winner of the Iowa/Wisconsin game, the Gophers win the division and go onto the Big Ten Championship Game.

If the Gophers beat Penn State and Northwestern but lose to both Iowa and Wisconsin, they'd finish in a first place tie, but lose the tiebreaker unless the winner of the Iowa/Wisconsin game lost one more game. Wisconsin plays at Nebraska and Purdue at home. Iowa plays Illinois at home and at Nebraska.

I don't mean to diminish the importance of the Penn State game, win that game and it opens up a lot more lofty dreams and really strengthens the Gophers chance for the Rose Bowl.

And I don't want to peg the Northwestern game as an automatic win, but these scenarios fall apart if the Gophers lose that game. The Gophers could be playing Northwestern knowing if they win this they win the division. That would be great incentive to avoid a trap game.
 

Penn State is the toughest test remaining on the Gopher's schedule. Not Iowa, not Wisconsin.

If the Gophers beat the Nittany Lions, they'll have the wind at their backs for the rest of the way. It would be a huge, huge statement win.
 

I think something a lot of people are forgetting about is this game will likely decide who goes to the Rose Bowl if Ohio State wins the conference like we all suspect. Winning the west does not guarantee we get the Rose Bowl, in fact, if Penn State only loses 1 game and has a win over Minnesota on their resume, they would be a shoe in for the Rose Bowl regardless how we finish outside of winning the conference. This game will HUGE in the grand scheme of things for our resume outside of wins and losses
 
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The importance of the Penn St. game is this; if we win the west and lose the championship game to O. St. we are not an automatic bid for the Rose Bowl. They could pick Penn St. over us. If we beat Penn St. picking them over us is much more difficult. Beating Penn. St. puts us in a much better position at bowl selection time.
 

GuyFawkes said:
I think something a lot of people are forgetting about is this game will likely decide who goes to the Rose Bowl if Ohio State wins the conference like we all suspect. Winning the west does not guarantee we get the Rose Bowl, in fact, if Penn State only loses 1 game and has a win over Minnesota on their resume, they would be a shoe in for the Rose Bowl regardless how we finish outside of winning the conference. This game will HUGE in the grand scheme of things for our resume outside of wins and losses
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For the record, I dont dispute the hugeness of the game for the reasons you state. I was just addressing the original point, which was that I dont think this game is likely to make a difference in deciding the west division winner.
 

GuyFawkes said:
I think something a lot of people are forgetting about is this game will likely decide who goes to the Rose Bowl if Ohio State wins the conference like we all suspect. Winning the west does not guarantee we get the Rose Bowl, in fact, if Penn State only loses 1 game and has a win over Minnesota on their resume, they would be a shoe in for the Rose Bowl regardless how we finish outside of winning the conference. This game will HUGE in the grand scheme of things for our resume outside of wins and losses
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Right. Which we all want. But that said, the bigger goal for me right now is win the west for ONCE.
 



Otis said:
The PSU game is as close to meaningless in the B1G West as it could be. If we lose or win, still need to win two of the 3 remaining games.
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This is incorrect. If we beat PSU, we only require one additional victory - whoever wins the WI/IA matchup.

Additionally, if we beat PSU, we could potentially clinch the division as soon as the following week with a victory over Iowa. If we lose to PSU, that would require both wisconsin and Iowa to lose in order for us to clinch.
 

There is also a possibility that Ohio St could end up in the BCS and a 1 loss Penn St. team go to the Orange Bowl. So we could still go to the Rose Bowl with a loss to Penn St but we would probably have to win the last 3 games to make that happen.

The bottom line is if we keep winning, the polls and bowls will take care of themselves!
 

Gold Rush said:
There is also a possibility that Ohio St could end up in the BCS and a 1 loss Penn St. team go to the Orange Bowl. So we could still go to the Rose Bowl with a loss to Penn St but we would probably have to win the last 3 games to make that happen.

The bottom line is if we keep winning, the polls and bowls will take care of themselves!
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That would depend on the Rose Bowl deciding to pick the Gophers over Penn State, but if anyone could sell the Gophers' story to the Rose Bowl comittee, it's Fleck.
 

In my view, it's all about expectations. If the Gophers beat Penn State then suddenly they will be odds on favorites against Wisconsin at home. They will be touchdown favorites against Iowa on the road, etc. Game performances correlate with each other. If you win a game then your odds of winning all of the other games increase.

That's why it's way more likely that teams will win/lose out than individual game probabilities will suggest. Correlation drives expectations.

Beat Penn State, and people will be talking about whether we can challenge Ohio State, not whether we can beat Wisconsin, because they will know we can beat Wisconsin.
 

Jeshurun said:
A win over Penn State would prove that we should be favored in our remaining matchups. That is the significance of the matchup.
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That's significant? being favored in games is important to you. Hahahaha
 

haefs11 said:
That's significant? being favored in games is important to you. Hahahaha
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You’re right, wanting National respect in a sport where everything is driven by biased voters is a silly wish.
 

The Gophers are guaranteed an 8-4 finish. I can see Fleck's point of every game being a championship game. One game at a time.
 

I think you are all creating scenarios where Wisconsin and Iowa don't lose additional games other than their matchup together. Wisconsin could lose at Nebraska or to Purdue and Illinois or Nebraska could beat Iowa. We are in control of our own destiny and I agree with GuyFawkes that this game has huge implications. If Fleck were to take this team to the Rose Bowl it would be an unbelievable accomplishment and this is the game that will have the biggest impact on which team is selected.
 

Winning the Penn State game would put us in a commanding position.


Can win division by beating the Wisc-Iowa winner
OR
Can win division by beating Wisc-Iowa loser and Northwestern
 

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