Penn State Opens -6.5 on ESPN

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mjfelton15

mjfelton15

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Just saw on the ESPN app that Penn State opened as a 6.5 pt favorite


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Seems reasonable. We need to start fast in this one (which we have lately). Playing from the lead is our best shot.
 



Sparlimb said:
Seems reasonable. We need to start fast in this one (which we have lately). Playing from the lead is our best shot.
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I think if we can get an early turnover, maybe an errant pass attempt to K.J. Hamler that Winfield can snag out of the air, or a pick by Kamal Martin on a tipped pass over the middle aiming for their top TE Freiermuth. We’re going to need to win the turnover margin, without a doubt. I think we have plenty of defensive threats that can force a turnover. Might need a pick 6.


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Starting fast will be key, especially against their defense which most metrics put in the top 10.

Offensively we have 0 easy games left, so it will be interesting to see if our top 10 offense is really as strong as the metrics indicate when facing strong opponents.
 

BeerFueledFF said:
Starting fast will be key, especially against their defense which most metrics put in the top 10.

Offensively we have 0 easy games left, so it will be interesting to see if our top 10 offense is really as strong as the metrics indicate when facing strong opponents.
Click to expand...

If we start fast, we need to accelerate during the middle part of the game.
 


Full Banana is the best way to start fast!!
 



Six and a hook is inviting early money on Penn State. That number should jump up a couple points or more, then drift back down.

Of course, I had Maryland to cover last week. Guess I'm not retiring on my gambling winnings anytime soon.
 

from what i gather. keys to win the game.

full banana. start fast. finish strong

got it
 

I, too, am in favor of the Gophers giving PSU the full banana.
 

dalostpinoy said:
from what i gather. keys to win the game.

full banana. start fast. finish strong

got it
Click to expand...


I think the key is to start slow, starting fast didn't work at all for us vs PSU last time
 



dalostpinoy said:
from what i gather. keys to win the game.

full banana. start fast. finish strong

got it
Click to expand...

you forgot accelerate in the middle :)

Penn State being a single digit favorite feels right for this one. As long as we are ahead or within striking distance going into the 4th quarter I like our chances at home. Hope the atmosphere is electric and I fully expect Fleck and Co. the players ready to go out and give Penn State their best shot.
 

Urbandale said:
Six and a hook is inviting early money on Penn State. That number should jump up a couple points or more, then drift back down.

Of course, I had Maryland to cover last week. Guess I'm not retiring on my gambling winnings anytime soon.
Click to expand...

I'm a firm believer in the idea that if you yourself actually bet on a game, that action will change the game's outcome not in your favor. If not, then it will go according to what everyone knew would happen.

So I tend to go with the latter.
 

Sparlimb said:
Seems reasonable. We need to start fast in this one (which we have lately). Playing from the lead is our best shot.
Click to expand...

If we start slow enough they may start to overlook us in the 2nd quarter.


Then we got em
 


If we can run the ball versus Penn State we will win. If we can’t, we need them to help us with turnovers, we obviously will need some big pass plays, a special teams surprise...something positive. Any turnovers we give up will likely be hard to overcome.

Figure out in the two weeks how we can run the ball versus their 2 yards per play rushing defense. That’s the key for us.
 

60's Guy said:
If we can run the ball versus Penn State we will win. If we can’t, we need them to help us with turnovers, we obviously will need some big pass plays, a special teams surprise...something positive. Any turnovers we give up will likely be hard to overcome.

Figure out in the two weeks how we can run the ball versus their 2 yards per play rushing defense. That’s the key for us.
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Meh, overrated

If they stack the box we throw it 40 times and score 30 points
If they don’t we run it 40 times and score 30 points


To me it’s if our defense can stop someone
 

I think this is a game where we'll need to throw the ball and attack the perimeter to set up the inside run as opposed to the other way around.
 

If we beat Penn State I’m going to State Correctional Institution-Greene and beating Sandusky over the head with the Governor’s Victory Bell


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Massey has it 31-24 Penn State. They’re giving us a 29% chance.

I think the two teams are closer than most people think. They have a slight edge on defense, but we have the superior offense.


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PitinoFan said:
Massey has it 31-24 Penn State. They’re giving us a 29% chance.

I think the two teams are closer than most people think. They have a slight edge on defense, but we have the superior offense.


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I’m not even that sure they have the edge on defense. Looking deeper at the October defensive stats.

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Honestly thought this would be in the -3.5 to 4 range. The sharp money will jump all over MN as I think this line is reflects the PSU brand more than anything. Public isn't buying us just yet. Folks watching closely know that we've hammered BIG opponents at home lately and that we will control time of possession with our 3 headed RB attack to keep this one very close. I think weather will be in our favor as well.

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PitinoFan said:
Massey has it 31-24 Penn State. They’re giving us a 29% chance.

I think the two teams are closer than most people think. They have a slight edge on defense, but we have the superior offense.


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Besides their QB, one WR, and one TE, do they really have much going for them on offense in the skill positions? I don’t hear much about their run game.


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Spread seems right and in line with all non-Sagarin models. I imagine it will oscillate around the critical +7 mark until kickoff
 

PitinoFan said:
Massey has it 31-24 Penn State. They’re giving us a 29% chance.

I think the two teams are closer than most people think. They have a slight edge on defense, but we have the superior offense.


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Click to expand...

PSU is ranked #2 in scoring defense (9.6 PPG), Gophs are #22 (20 PPG). PSU is #13 in scoring offense (38.5 PPG), Gophs are #14 (35.4 PPG). Very close on offense, not so much on defense.

Having said that, Gophs have a substantial TOP advantage over PSU but not sure how that plays out in this game...does the Gophs O-line wear them out like other teams have not? Should that help Gophs defense stop them for maybe one or two scoring drives?
 

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