Gophers #12 in SP+ after week 9

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If Gophs beat Penn State, I can't see how they don't move up to 5 or 6.
 





Special teams makes me really nervous for the 3 games against ranked teams coming up. The Gophers can't afford special teams mistakes in games that are otherwise close. A fumble, missed kick, or big kick/punt return could easily be the difference in any of those games.
 

Really, really impressive. Cue Ron Paul.

MN is a good team guys. And, we’re in reach of PSU and WI. OSU and Bama are in a different orbit than everyone else.

Regarding OK yeah looks suspect but probably still up there as SP+ looks at different facets of individual plays rather than wins and losses as the human polls do. Sure, there is a huge correlation there but a loss doesn’t necessarily drop a team way down the list because it’s more about total body of work. It also filters out garbage time plays which is a fair number considering the number of blowouts in the Big Ten in 2019. From football outsiders:

Garbage time adjustments: The S&P+ figures used in the tables below only look at the plays that took place while a game was deemed competitive. Garbage-time plays and possessions have been filtered out of the calculations. The criteria for "garbage time" are as follows: a game is not within 38 points in the second quarter, 28 points in the third quarter, or 22 points in the fourth quarter.
 


This ranking more important to me than the AP, Coaches or CFP poll. Hopefully there are some others out there who watch this as closely as I do and feel the same!


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Hollinsanity said:
This ranking more important to me than the AP, Coaches or CFP poll. Hopefully there are some others out there who watch this as closely as I do and feel the same!


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Click to expand...

It's a better ranking to look at if you are interested in projecting forward versus looking backward like the human rankers do.
 

Hollinsanity said:
This ranking more important to me than the AP, Coaches or CFP poll. Hopefully there are some others out there who watch this as closely as I do and feel the same!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Right, and for those sports gamblers out there, it gives you a good idea of game probabilities which is why I watch it closely.

For the unaware, this ranking implies:
vPSU: +2
@IOWA: -2
@NW: -20
vWIS: PICK
 

Pompous Elitist said:
Garbage time adjustments: The S&P+ figures used in the tables below only look at the plays that took place while a game was deemed competitive. Garbage-time plays and possessions have been filtered out of the calculations. The criteria for "garbage time" are as follows: a game is not within 38 points in the second quarter, 28 points in the third quarter, or 22 points in the fourth quarter.
Click to expand...

By this standard the Gopher defense has only given up a couple of field goals in a month. One of those wouldn't have happened without some ill fated timeout trickery.
 

hello-world said:
Right, and for those sports gamblers out there, it gives you a good idea of game probabilities which is why I watch it closely.

For the unaware, this ranking implies:
vPSU: +2
@IOWA: -2
@NW: -20
vWIS: PICK
Click to expand...

I'm less and less worried about Northwestern as this season has gone on, good to see the numbers match that.

Other three games are looking really tasty and like good match-ups.
 



fmlizard said:
By this standard the Gopher defense has only given up a couple of field goals in a month. One of those wouldn't have happened without some ill fated timeout trickery.
Click to expand...

Which is why the Gophers are now sporting a top-25 defense in this ranking despite giving up 30 to two G5 teams.
 

Pompous Elitist said:
Really, really impressive. Cue Ron Paul.

MN is a good team guys. And, we’re in reach of PSU and WI. OSU and Bama are in a different orbit than everyone else.

Regarding OK yeah looks suspect but probably still up there as SP+ looks at different facets of individual plays rather than wins and losses as the human polls do. Sure, there is a huge correlation there but a loss doesn’t necessarily drop a team way down the list because it’s more about total body of work. It also filters out garbage time plays which is a fair number considering the number of blowouts in the Big Ten in 2019. From football outsiders:

Garbage time adjustments: The S&P+ figures used in the tables below only look at the plays that took place while a game was deemed competitive. Garbage-time plays and possessions have been filtered out of the calculations. The criteria for "garbage time" are as follows: a game is not within 38 points in the second quarter, 28 points in the third quarter, or 22 points in the fourth quarter.
Click to expand...

IMO OSU and LSU are the teams to beat. Neither Bama nor Clemson have played any quality opponents, with their best wins both being an overrated Texas A&M. LSU is on fire- 3 top ten wins already. And we’ve seen OSU just take over games.
 

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