If you go back a few pages, you'll see he dismisses the possibility of beating all four of Penn State, Iowa, Northwestern, and Wisconsin as being so astronomically unlikely that it's not worth it to even hope that it happens. Then, immediately afterward, he suggests that beating Ohio State, which will be a tougher task than any of the prior four games will have been individually, is in fact possible, leaving the Gophers as a 12-1 Big Ten Champion, and kind of teetering on the edge of playoff vs. Rose Bowl. He then suggests that Minnesota would likely get their teeth kicked in by either Alabama or LSU in the first round of the playoff, despite the fact that this theoretical Minnesota team has just beaten an Ohio State team that is regarded to be every bit as strong as Alabama and LSU. The alternative to that is going to the Rose Bowl, and quite possibly being favored against an Oregon or Utah team that ends up maybe more toward the low end of the top 10.
So the underlying assumptions are:
1. Winning the next 4 games is either literally impossible, or so unfathomably improbable that it's silly to even want it to happen.
2. Despite the fact that going 4-0 in our next 4 games is never going to happen, going 4-1 in our next 5, including winning the toughest game we will have played all season, is possible and worth hoping for.
3. Despite that Minnesota has theoretically just beaten a team that is currently 8 AP votes shy of #1, they would be no match for the other two teams that are considered to be just a hair better than Ohio State.
4. Winning the Rose Bowl is fairly likely, and would be a significantly better outcome than losing in the playoff.
That last point can at least kinda be argued, as winning the Rose Bowl would be a tremendous accomplishment in just Fleck's third year, and ending on a win arguably leaves a better taste in fans' and recruits' mouths over the offseason instead of losing, but the other points just seem logically inconsistent.
Somewhat related, I actually found some college football account on Twitter arguing that a 12-1 Minnesota would likely make the playoff depending on whom the wins came against. He was saying if we beat Penn State and Northwestern, but lost to one of Iowa or Wisconsin before beating Ohio State to win the Big Ten, we would probably make it into the top 4, with 2 top notch wins against Penn State and Ohio State, and a not embarrassing loss to a top 25 Iowa or Wisconsin.
