CFP or Rose Bowl?

Where would you like to see the 2019 Gophers end up?


  • Total voters
    145
Even in that scenario you're rooting for the CFP to screw you. An odd choice.

Not screwing in the slightest, if there are four better teams ahead of you.

You keep coming to a dead end, where you then just arbitrarily define what you want to be true, to be true.
 

Perfectly reasonable because they’d be Big Ten champs and just defeated a top 4 team. CFP committee is on record saying conf champs get extra weight.

At minimum it’s a non-zero probability, you can’t prove otherwise.

Thus it’s valid, thus it’s a valid way to break the thread argument.


Wasn't it just a couple of years ago that the B1G Champ (Penn St?) got passed over for Ohio State? Was this the basis for what you say the Committee is on record saying now?
 

Non-zero but not by much. There's a better chance they get left out at 13-0 than make it at 12-1.

You’re making a wild guess, and trying to pass it off as fact.

Here’s another one: the probability of us going 13-0 in the first place, is less likely than either of those two scenarios! So the whole thread was based on a bunk premise to start.


Hence why I’ve asked repeatedly (and been ignored, because they can’t think of a counter-argument): why not just start from the premise that we’ve won the national championship??
 

Wasn't it just a couple of years ago that the B1G Champ (Penn St?) got passed over for Ohio State? Was this the basis for what you say the Committee is on record saying now?

Yes Penn St got passed over for Ohio State.

I think after that the committee had to put more weight on conf championships.
 

No you didn't. The CFP will never take a 1 loss Gopher team over a 1 loss LSU/PSU etc.

If the gophers beat Penn State, split Iowa/Wisconsin and still win the west and then beat OSU in the championship, I think we'd have a good shot. That would give us 2 win over top 5 teams plus another top 20 win and we'd be champs of a perceived top 2 conference.
 


If the gophers beat Penn State, split Iowa/Wisconsin and still win the west and then beat OSU in the championship, I think we'd have a good shot. That would give us 2 win over top 5 teams plus another top 20 win and we'd be champs of a perceived top 2 conference.

Yes
 

If the gophers beat Penn State, split Iowa/Wisconsin and still win the west and then beat OSU in the championship, I think we'd have a good shot. That would give us 2 win over top 5 teams plus another top 20 win and we'd be champs of a perceived top 2 conference.

If we grant Clemson and Alabama are undefeated and take the top two spots, you'd potentially have the following possibilities for 3 and 4:

1-Loss Pac 12 Champion (Oregon/Utah)
1-Loss or undefeated B1G 12 champion (Baylor/Oklahoma)
1-Loss B1G Champion Minnesota
1-Loss OSU
1-Loss LSU
11-2 Florida or GA

It's possible, but I'd put the Big 12 winner, LSU and probably OSU ahead of us.
 

If we grant Clemson and Alabama are undefeated and take the top two spots, you'd potentially have the following possibilities for 3 and 4:

1-Loss Pac 12 Champion (Oregon/Utah)
1-Loss or undefeated B1G 12 champion (Baylor/Oklahoma)
1-Loss B1G Champion Minnesota
1-Loss OSU
1-Loss LSU
11-2 Florida or GA

It's possible, but I'd put the Big 12 winner, LSU and probably OSU ahead of us.

We'd 100% be ahead of Ohio State in that scenario. There's no chance they take an OSU team we just beat and has the same record over us.

Undefeated Baylor/1 loss Oklahoma would be #3, and it probably comes down to us or LSU. Not sure how that would turn out. Depends how close LSU played Bama, how close we played PSU/OSU, and how bad our loss was.
 

If we grant Clemson and Alabama are undefeated and take the top two spots, you'd potentially have the following possibilities for 3 and 4:

1-Loss Pac 12 Champion (Oregon/Utah)
1-Loss or undefeated B1G 12 champion (Baylor/Oklahoma)
1-Loss B1G Champion Minnesota
1-Loss OSU
1-Loss LSU
11-2 Florida or GA

It's possible, but I'd put the Big 12 winner, LSU and probably OSU ahead of us.

Exactly, hence why there a decent probability of CFP/non-CFP with the same W-L total, thus *not* forcing fans to have to choose for the Gophs lose in order to get what they want.

(which was always the troll motivation for this thread in the first place)
 



We'd 100% be ahead of Ohio State in that scenario. There's no chance they take an OSU team we just beat and has the same record over us.

Undefeated Baylor/1 loss Oklahoma would be #3, and it probably comes down to us or LSU. Not sure how that would turn out. Depends how close LSU played Bama, how close we played PSU/OSU, and how bad our loss was.

You can pass it off however you like, but you’re still just guessing at this point, like the rest of us.
 

If we grant Clemson and Alabama are undefeated and take the top two spots, you'd potentially have the following possibilities for 3 and 4:

1-Loss Pac 12 Champion (Oregon/Utah)
1-Loss or undefeated B1G 12 champion (Baylor/Oklahoma)
1-Loss B1G Champion Minnesota
1-Loss OSU
1-Loss LSU
11-2 Florida or GA

It's possible, but I'd put the Big 12 winner, LSU and probably OSU ahead of us.

We would have the same record as OSU (12-1) but we'd have won the head to head, won the conference and would have better wins (OSU and PSU instead of PSU and Michigan).

If Oklahoma won out, their best 3 wins would be Baylor twice and a borderline top 25 Texas team. Ours would be OSU, PSU and either Iowa/Wisconsin. And we'd the champions of a perceived better conference.

A 13-0 Baylor would have a strong case with two wins over OU however if that did happen then OU would finish 9-3 and their final ranking wouldn't be as high as it is now.

And a 11-1 LSU team would have a better loss than us @Bama compared to Iowa/Wisconsin but our top 3 wins of OSU, PSU and Iowa/Wisc would be slightly better than their top 3 wins of Florida, Auburn and Texas who again is now only a borderline top 25 team. We would also be Big 10 champs and have an additinal win and higher win percentage while they would be division runner ups.

And a 12-1 Big Ten champion Minnesota would certainly get in over a 12-1 Pac 12 champ Oregon or Utah or a two loss Florida or UGA.

Long story short, I'd like our chances to get in in that scenario.
 


You can pass it off however you like, but you’re still just guessing at this point, like the rest of us.

It would mean re-writing history for that not to be the case.

There's simply no way they pass over a conference champion for a team they just beat with the same record.
 



I'd like to see Minnesota win out and get excluded from the CFP. I get my dream trip to Pasadena, and the Gophers would become the driving force behind expanding the playoff to at least eight teams, thus becoming America's team.

This scenario would never happen. Any power 5 team that goes undefeated is not going to get left out of a four team playoff.
 

Wasn't it just a couple of years ago that the B1G Champ (Penn St?) got passed over for Ohio State? Was this the basis for what you say the Committee is on record saying now?

Penn State had multiple losses.
 

If Minnesota is a one loss team and the BIG champion, it would all come down to who they lost to and the score. If we lost at Iowa by less than a FG and then beat OSU in the conference championship, we would most likely make the playoff.

You have to remember that Clemson will not play a top 25 team all year and if they go undefeated, they will be in.

Alabama and LSU have to play each other.

Penn St and Ohio St have to play each other

Oregon and Oklahoma still only have one loss
 

This scenario would never happen. Any power 5 team that goes undefeated is not going to get left out of a four team playoff.

And if there are more than four undefeated P5 champions and Notre Dame???

There goes “never”. Higher than zero probability.
 

If Minnesota is a one loss team and the BIG champion, it would all come down to who they lost to and the score. If we lost at Iowa by less than a FG and then beat OSU in the conference championship, we would most likely make the playoff.

You have to remember that Clemson will not play a top 25 team all year and if they go undefeated, they will be in.

Alabama and LSU have to play each other.

Penn St and Ohio St have to play each other

Oregon and Oklahoma still only have one loss

Most likely, but not 100%.

Therefore it is possible to root for the Rose Bowl without rooting for the Gophers to lose games.

Thread blown to smithereens. (that was the reason dpo created it, to force people to say they wanted the Gophers to lose in order to get what they wanted, the Rose Bowl)
 

SUCKS that PSU would get the Rose Bowl even if our only losses end up to them and OSU!

For me a Rose Bowl is the equivalent to a national championship for Gopher football. I hope to see it in my lifetime, but don't expect a natty title.
 

We'd 100% be ahead of Ohio State in that scenario. There's no chance they take an OSU team we just beat and has the same record over us.

Undefeated Baylor/1 loss Oklahoma would be #3, and it probably comes down to us or LSU. Not sure how that would turn out. Depends how close LSU played Bama, how close we played PSU/OSU, and how bad our loss was.

They shouldn't take OSU over us, but I still think they would. Especially if we win a close game. OSU would have wins over Penn State, Michigan, Wisconsin and Cincy all of whom might be ranked. If we lose to Wisconsin, it's possible our only wins vs. ranked teams would be OSU and PSU.
 

I don’t get why we are arguing “this scenario couldn’t happen” or anything about records. The question was simple: Rose Bowl or CFP. It wasn’t more wins and CFP or less wins and Rose Bowl. Forget about what the committee should/shouldn’t do in any scenario - all other things equal would you rather we play in the RB or for a natty? Some would prefer RB and some others find that so hard to believe they are tagging other assumptions to it.


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I don’t get why we are arguing “this scenario couldn’t happen” or anything about records. The question was simple: Rose Bowl or CFP. It wasn’t more wins and CFP or less wins and Rose Bowl. Forget about what the committee should/shouldn’t do in any scenario - all other things equal would you rather we play in the RB or for a natty? Some would prefer RB and some others find that so hard to believe they are tagging other assumptions to it.


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The point of the thread/poll was for dpo to troll people whose opinion he doesn’t like.

He pushed the false/fake narrative hard that in order to prefer the Rose Bowl, you have to desire for the Gophers to lose games. This has been disproven.
 

I am sorry, but anyone who votes for the Rose Bowl is insane. it basically says we don't want to win the Big and we don't want to win the National Championship. Personally, I think Gophers will be fortunate to be in the Rose but I want them in the CFP.
 

I am sorry, but anyone who votes for the Rose Bowl is insane. it basically says we don't want to win the Big and we don't want to win the National Championship. Personally, I think Gophers will be fortunate to be in the Rose but I want them in the CFP.

It is truly this simple!
 

I am sorry, but anyone who votes for the Rose Bowl is insane. it basically says we don't want to win the Big and we don't want to win the National Championship. Personally, I think Gophers will be fortunate to be in the Rose but I want them in the CFP.

It has been proven that both outcomes are equally possible, even with the same W-L record.

Therefore, you can select either outcome without having to hope for any losses.
 

It has been proven that both outcomes are equally possible, even with the same W-L record.

Therefore, you can select either outcome without having to hope for any losses.

Wait what? Are you suggesting there is a scenario the Gophers go undefeated and don't make the CFP, because there isn't!
 

I would have voted Pinstripe Bowl if it was an option. More losing - which is just what us Rose Bowl voters want.


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Wait what? Are you suggesting there is a scenario the Gophers go undefeated and don't make the CFP, because there isn't!

The poll doesn’t ask if you want the Gophers to go undefeated. It asks if you want to go to the CFP or Rose. Both are equally possible, without having to wish for “extra losses” to get the Rose, if that’s what you desire. Eg, both are equally possible at 12-1.
 

CFP for sure. Means you are one of the top 4 teams in the country. The buildup is more than the Rose Bowl in the current setup...
 

Wait what? Are you suggesting there is a scenario the Gophers go undefeated and don't make the CFP, because there isn't!

If you go back a few pages, you'll see he dismisses the possibility of beating all four of Penn State, Iowa, Northwestern, and Wisconsin as being so astronomically unlikely that it's not worth it to even hope that it happens. Then, immediately afterward, he suggests that beating Ohio State, which will be a tougher task than any of the prior four games will have been individually, is in fact possible, leaving the Gophers as a 12-1 Big Ten Champion, and kind of teetering on the edge of playoff vs. Rose Bowl. He then suggests that Minnesota would likely get their teeth kicked in by either Alabama or LSU in the first round of the playoff, despite the fact that this theoretical Minnesota team has just beaten an Ohio State team that is regarded to be every bit as strong as Alabama and LSU. The alternative to that is going to the Rose Bowl, and quite possibly being favored against an Oregon or Utah team that ends up maybe more toward the low end of the top 10.

So the underlying assumptions are:

1. Winning the next 4 games is either literally impossible, or so unfathomably improbable that it's silly to even want it to happen.
2. Despite the fact that going 4-0 in our next 4 games is never going to happen, going 4-1 in our next 5, including winning the toughest game we will have played all season, is possible and worth hoping for.
3. Despite that Minnesota has theoretically just beaten a team that is currently 8 AP votes shy of #1, they would be no match for the other two teams that are considered to be just a hair better than Ohio State.
4. Winning the Rose Bowl is fairly likely, and would be a significantly better outcome than losing in the playoff.

That last point can at least kinda be argued, as winning the Rose Bowl would be a tremendous accomplishment in just Fleck's third year, and ending on a win arguably leaves a better taste in fans' and recruits' mouths over the offseason instead of losing, but the other points just seem logically inconsistent.

Somewhat related, I actually found some college football account on Twitter arguing that a 12-1 Minnesota would likely make the playoff depending on whom the wins came against. He was saying if we beat Penn State and Northwestern, but lost to one of Iowa or Wisconsin before beating Ohio State to win the Big Ten, we would probably make it into the top 4, with 2 top notch wins against Penn State and Ohio State, and a not embarrassing loss to a top 25 Iowa or Wisconsin.
 




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