PFF: Gophers 66% chance to make B1G Title Game

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WinLoseOrTy

WinLoseOrTy

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17. MINNESOTA
The Gophers find themselves as one of only 10 undefeated college football teams through Week 8. They have covered in their last four victories and currently have a 66% chance of reaching the Big Ten title game. After Minnesota opened as 15-point home favorites, bettors are buying into them, pushing the Gophers out to the key number 17. Greenline leans slightly toward Maryland but gives the Gophers an 86% win probability this Saturday.

https://www.pff.com/news/college-football-pff-top-25-power-rankings-week-8-2019
 

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The stats seem to love us more than the eye test. Models like PFF and SP+ are much more pro-Gopher than the media and public
 

The stats/models only look at this year's stats and performance. The media and public have 50 years of history and disappointment to sour their view.
 



We are the only team in the Big Ten West that controls their own destiny. That's worth something.
 



johnnybb said:
We are the only team in the Big Ten West that controls their own destiny. That's worth something.
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Wisconsin still does as well, if we both won every game until our matchup and they beat us we'd have the same record but they'd have the head to head tiebreaker over us.
 




johnnybb said:
We are the only team in the Big Ten West that controls their own destiny. That's worth something.
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Technically Wisconsin does as well, if they beat us they would hold the tiebreaker and we would be tied in the standings. Granted, they would have to knock off Ohio State this week to keep control.
 


fair said:
Wisconsin still does as well, if we both won every game until our matchup and they beat us we'd have the same record but they'd have the head to head tiebreaker over us.
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Whoops. In my head I keep thinking they've already lost to Ohio State.
 



I'd be interested to see how they came to that 66% number; that seems really high to me. Off the top of my head I think that might imply that Penn State will be very hard to beat, but that we should be pretty heavy favorites in every other game. For example, if Team A has a 90% chance of victory in each of 4 games, there is only a 66% chance of going 4-0. Not trying to crap on the Gophers or anything, but a 66% chance to go to Indy means that Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska, Purdue etc. combine for only a 34% chance, which I think would imply that Minnesota is head and shoulders better than most of the other West teams, which I'm uncertain of. If we end up beating Penn State by 2+ possessions, I would have an easier time believing that.

Another interesting note came in the blurb about Wisconsin, saying that "teams predicated on defense and rushing are more susceptible to have letdowns than teams capable of generating offensive production through the air." I would imagine most football fans, me included, would believe that a strong defense and run game on offense is the best route to a consistently high performing team, while a pass-heavy offense might be more boom or bust.
 


JWG said:
The stats/models only look at this year's stats and performance. The media and public have 50 years of history and disappointment to sour their view.
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Depending on the model this is not necessarily true. A **good** model certainly looks at past years and recruiting rankings.
 

This seems a bit over-confident to me. The simulation I run using four other models says the Gophers have a 44% chance, just above Wisconsin:

 




Hollinsanity said:
This seems a bit over-confident to me. The simulation I run using four other models says the Gophers have a 44% chance, just above Wisconsin:
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You and I are in-line here. It's going to be tight and we absolutely need OSU to take care of business this week against what I assume will be a pissed off badger team.
(Also the Gophers cannot lose to Maryland).
 


Seems high. If Wisconsin goes 3-1 leading up to the last game, the Gophers need to go 4-0 including wins over Iowa and Penn State to clinch the west before the last game. It seems like maybe a 15% chance we win the west before that game and a 45% chance of winning that game if it decides the west which gives us about a 55% chance overall.
 

No message - misread the post.
 
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